The Indian Premier League has finally settled on the four teams that will fight for the title.
For the best part of the first month, the top two teams seemed pretty much decided with the fight apparently among the rest of the sides for the remaining two play-offs spots.
But fast starters Punjab Kings hit a gigantic roadblock - namely the absence of plan B or a versatile bowling attack - that derailed their campaign which had started off unbeaten after seven games. Title holders Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Gujarat Titans showed greater discipline across the two months to qualify as the top two sides after the league phase, while Sunrisers Hyderabad also made the cut after reconfiguring their bowling after early failures and backing a young pace attack. Bengaluru, Gujarat and Hyderabad all qualified on 18 points apiece.
Rajasthan Royals (16 points) were the fourth and final team to qualify for the IPL play-offs after their 30-run win over the Mumbai Indians on the last day of the league phase on Sunday.
That meant the end of the journey for Punjab (15 points), who were reduced to depending upon other results to go their way this month, having utterly dominated the previous one.
Bengaluru and Gujarat play the first qualifier on Tuesday. The following day, Sunrisers take on Rajasthan in the eliminator. The winners of the qualifier enter the final while the losing side get another chance against the winners of the eliminator to enter the title match.
Fixtures
Tuesday: Bengaluru v Gujarat (Qualifier 1)
Wednesday: Rajasthan v Hyderabad (Eliminator)
Friday: Qualifier 2 (Loser Qualifier 1 v winner Eliminator)
Sunday: Final
Who is most likely to win the IPL title?
T20 format is extremely unpredictable. But in the IPL, there is a near certainty – the top two teams at the end of the league phase almost always win the trophy.
Ever since the play-offs were introduced in the IPL in 2011, no team qualifying for the play-offs in fourth position has won the trophy, while only one side – Hyderabad in 2016 – has won it from third position.
Even among the top two teams, there is a strange bias – teams finishing second in the points table are twice as likely to win the IPL compared to the side topping the table – nine wins from second spot compared to five from the top position.
If that trend continues, Gujarat Titans – second in the 2026 points table – are favoured to lift the trophy. However, it must be noted that the top three teams this year are all locked on 18 points and separated by the barest of margins on net run rate.
The other way to look at the trend is that the league champions have oscillated between first and second position in the league table over the past few years. So by that count, Bengaluru could win this year as the second-placed side had won it last year.
But if one looks from a cricket standpoint, Gujarat stand a good chance. In their short IPL history, the Titans have been remarkably consistent. They won the IPL in their first attempt in 2022 and reached the final the following year. They made it to the play-offs last year as well as this season, making Gujarat one the more consistent sides in recent times.
Bengaluru too have been successful this decade. Since 2020, RCB have reached the play-offs on six occasions and won the trophy once.
What could work against Bengaluru is the growing injury list with Jacob Bethell already ruled out due to a finger injury and Phil Salt in a race against time to recover from his hand injury. Their bowling is also beginning to crack under pressure with Josh Hazlewood enduring one of his poorer IPL seasons and Bhuvneshwar Kumar carrying most of the workload; he is the joint-highest wicket-taker in the tournament with 24 scalps.
The biggest factor that could work in Gujarat's favour is an old adage in cricket – batters win you matches, bowlers win you tournaments. The Titans' bowling attack is arguably the best in the league; Kagiso Rabada is the joint-highest wicket taker, Rashid Khan is fifth on the list and Mohammad Siraj eighth. Plus the latter two have an economy under nine an over.
If Gujarat's bowling attack has two good games, there would be no stopping them.
