Real estate market ‘on pause’ for outcome of Dubai’s Expo bid



DUBAI // Estate agents have reported a temporary pause in sales as people wait to see what effect the result of next month’s Expo 2020 vote will have on the property market.

It is believed that a win for Dubai will push up demand for property in the emirate, sending prices rocketing up from current highs.

Already this year the market has witnessed a massive increase in the cost of property. Between the second quarter of 2012 and the same period this year, the average property price in Dubai increased by 21.7 per cent, according to property consultancy Knight Frank.

“It’s silly season out there at the moment,” said Mario Volpi, managing director of Prestige Real Estate.

“Owners are either putting prices up or not doing anything – literally waiting until November 27.”

He said the hype surrounding the Expo bid had already been a key driver in raising property prices.

If Dubai is successful, the launch of a brace of new infrastructure projects linked to the bid will mean an influx of white collar workers that will further fuel demand for real estate.

“If Dubai wins, everything is definitely going to be on a plus,” said Mr Volpi. “But it’s not measured at all. Some people think it’s carte blanche to raise property prices through the roof. Sellers have gone mad.”

He added many developers who announced new projects at the recent Cityscape exhibition have delayed selling properties for two months. That sentiment was reflected across the market.

“Things aren’t quite as busy as they were in terms of transactional business. There appears to be this mood of waiting to see how things will be on November 27,” said Mr Volpi. “I feel like this is the calm before the storm.”

Ian Albert, regional director of property company Colliers International, said the number of mortgage valuation requests received were already higher than ever. However, if Dubai wins the bid it could become even busier.

“There’s an expectation that it will spur the market on further, but our concern is over how much more spurring the market can take,” he said.

“We’re already moving at a considerable pace. At this stage we need to consider the impact on the overall economy.”

Last month, the Dubai Land Department increased registration fees for new purchases from 2 to 4 per cent of the total value of the property. The move was expected to cool off the market and stop a property bubble from forming.

“A lot of buyers are pausing for thought,” Mr Volpi said. “If they stop buying, and stop buying in numbers, then sellers will be forced to lower their prices.”

mcroucher@thenational.ae

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Brief scores:

Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first

Kerala Knights 103-7 (10 ov)

Parnell 59 not out; Tambe 5-15

Sindhis 104-1 (7.4 ov)

Watson 50 not out, Devcich 49