With the general election only days away, Rishi Sunak could be forgiven for ignoring the polls. They make for grim reading.
In that respect, a Deltapoll survey for The National confirms that this coming Friday will be his last in office, if the polls are accurate – though they have been wrong in the past. From the very outset, when the Prime Minister announced the ballot in the pouring rain, and throughout the campaign, the polls have consistently pointed to this outcome.
As he heads for the exit, Mr Sunak can take a degree of comfort from the fact that on the two main foreign affairs issues of the moment, Gaza and Ukraine, he is reckoned to have done a reasonably good job. More people had a positive view of the government’s policy in both areas than negative.
Mr Sunak seemed comfortable on the world stage, avoiding causing offence, not making any gaffes, smoothly gladhanding and encouraging other countries to take Britain seriously again – no mean achievement after the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss regimes. Mr Johnson, to be fair, had a good Ukraine-Russia war, but his constant clowning around and buffoonery counted against him. Ms Truss, in some of her actions and outpourings, also managed to ruffle feathers. Mr Sunak, aided by a revitalised former Premier in UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, proved himself more widely acceptable, particularly at the gatherings of world leaders.
It is ironic then that it was precisely a coming together of leaders, to mark the anniversary of D-Day, that drove another nail into Mr Sunak’s Downing Street coffin, questioning his own credentials for the highest office when he left the commemoration early to conduct a TV interview.
What is striking about this survey is the differences between ages. With Labour intent on lowering the voting age to 16, this direction of opinion, provides food for future thought. On Gaza, for instance, a thumping 65 per cent of Generation Z say they would support recognition of an independent state of Palestine, compared with just 46 per cent of Baby Boomers. As this younger generation advances, so are demands for a Palestinian state likely to grow.
Similarly, on the banning of arms sales to Israel, 73 per cent of Generation Z are in favour, versus only 47 per cent of Baby Boomers.
Young Labour supporters, the poll shows, attach great importance to the Gaza situation. Overall, it is not an important issue for more than half (56 per cent) of respondents, including nearly a third (31 per cent) who say it is not at all important. But for the younger folk it is, and especially for Labour’s young, and moving forward that must carry greater weight.
Keir Starmer will come under pressure to call for a full ceasefire in Gaza and to allow protests calling for a cessation of the fighting to continue, the poll finds.
A plurality, 43 per cent, supports a negotiated diplomatic settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. About one in 14 favour military action while one in six back a role for the UN. A further third, exactly 33 per cent, do not know. This pattern is then broadly replicated across different political and social groups.
On Ukraine, that stance is the same, with most people (48 per cent) wanting a negotiated diplomatic settlement, as opposed to promoting military action against Russia.
One of Mr Sunak’s most eye-catching new policy proposals, National Service for 18-year-olds, does not get the approval rating he would have wished. Across the board, it attracted only 38 per cent support. Even among his own Tories, it was not resoundingly popular, with 43 per cent either opposed or unsure.
The strength of opposition in Generation Z, the section of the population directly affected by the move, suggest he could have mass demonstrations, if not riots, on his hands should it step towards becoming law. An overwhelming 81 per cent said they could not back the idea.
A major topic of debate this election is immigration. The poll provides firm evidence for why Nigel Farage’s Reform party, which wants to curb the number of foreigners settling in the UK should be enjoying a surge in popularity.
Right across the main political parties, the number seeking a reduction in numbers far outweighs those saying they should stay the same or increase. As expected, among Reform supporters it’s higher still, at 79 per cent. But those breakdowns for the Tories, Labour and Lib-Dems suggests strong cross-party desire for immigration to fall.
This points to an early headache for the new Prime Minister, assuming it’s Mr Starmer. Labour policies in this area are somewhat hazy, but 55 per cent of Labour voters are against an increase or maintaining the status quo. Clearly, he is picking up the baton and will be expected to follow through, while not with flights to Rwanda, with something concrete that will bring immigration down.
UK general election campaigning – in pictures
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Conservative leader Rishi Sunak speaks at party campaign event at the National Army Museum in London on Wednesday, July 3. AP Photo -
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer addresses supporters during a visit to the West Regwm Farm events venue in Whitland, Carmarthenshire, Wales, on the final day of election campaigning. PA -
Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey drives a tractor during a visit to Owl Lodge in Lacock, Wiltshire. PA -
Satirical political character Count Binface in London before challenging Conservative leader RishiSunak for the parliamentary seat of Richmond and Northallerton. Reuters -
Boris Johnson, former UK prime minister, campaigns for the Conservatives in London. Bloomberg -
Nigel Farage, leader of the far-right Reform UK Party, with heavyweight boxer Derek Chisora during a campaign visit to Clacton-on-Sea in eastern England. Reuters -
Mr Sunak holds a speech during his visit to Well Healthcare Supplies as he campaigns in Stoke. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer laughs as he speaks to supporters near Milton Keynes. AP -
Mr Davey bungee jumps during a visit to Eastbourne Borough Football Club in East Sussex. AP -
Mr Sunak bowls during his visit to Nuneaton Cricket Club. AFP -
Mr Starmer addresses an audience of Labour Party members and supporters during a rally at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London. AP -
Mr Davey rides a towable inflatable during a visit to Lakeside Ski & Wake, in the Cotswolds. Reuters -
Mr Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty visit the BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir in London. AFP -
Mr Starmer during a visit to the Shree Swaminarayan Mandir Hindu temple in Kingsbury, London. PA -
Mr Davey participates in a Zumba class with supporters in Wokingham. Reuters -
Mr Starmer speaking during a visit to Northampton Town Football Club at Sixfields Stadium. PA -
Mr Sunak delivers a speech in central London. AFP -
Mr Davey jet-washes an ambulance in London. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer rests his hand on the shoulder of Idris Elba as they meet families of knife crime victims, in west London. PA -
Mr Sunak turns on the power in the training centre control room during a tour of the Sizewell B nuclear power plant. AFP -
Mr Davey plays a game of Frisbee on a visit to a farm in Hampshire. AP -
Mr Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves visit a supermarket in Swindon. PA -
Mr Sunak speaks to journalists on the campaign bus following the launch of the Welsh Conservatives General Election manifesto near Rhyl. Reuters -
Mr Davey taking part in wheelbarrow racing at Huish Park, home of Yeovil Town football club in Somerset. PA -
Mr Farage speaks to the press in Clacton-on-Sea. Bloomberg -
Mr Starmer speaks at the launch of the Labour party's 2024 general election manifesto in Manchester. AP -
Mr Sunak answers questions from the audience in Grimsby. Getty Images -
Mr Davey toasts a marshmallow as he visits Willow Forest School in Surrey. EPA -
Mr Farage attends the launch of the Reform UK manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales. Reuters -
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar launches Scottish Labour’s battle bus campaign on June 17 in South Queensferry, Scotland. Getty Images -
Britain's Labour Party politician and Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting speaks to a television crew outside the BBC in London. AFP -
Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, on the BBC 1 current affairs programme, Sunday, with Laura Kuenssberg. BBC -
Mr Sunak meets pupils in a maths class during a visit to the John Whitgift Academy, in Grimsby. AP -
Mr Starmer during a visit to Grimsby Institute, a technical training college in Grimsby. PA -
Mr Davey during a general election campaign visit to the Aqua Jungle Spot in Stratford-upon-Avon. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak and Akshata Murty take centre stage at the Conservative Party's general election manifesto launch in Towcester. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer passes a toothbrush to a child during his visits to the Whale Hill Primary School in Middlesbrough. AP -
Mr Davey meets Steve Darling, Liberal Democrat candidate for Torbay and his guide dog Jennie at Torquay Harbour. Getty Images -
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage reacts after something is thrown towards him on the campaign bus in Cawthorne, Barnsley. AP -
Mr Sunak attends a neighbourhood watch meeting in Horsham, West Sussex. PA -
Mr Starmer helps volunteers pot plants during a visit to Harlesden Town Garden in north-west London. PA -
Mr Davey on the 'Rush' ride during a Liberal Democrats general election campaign event at Thorpe Park. Reuters -
Mr Sunak, during a visit to Imagination Childcare, in Swindon, Wiltshire, while on the election campaign trail. PA -
Mr Starmer visits Brent Cross town's visitor pavilion for a housing launch in London. Getty Images -
Mr Davey grills burgers in a garden, during campaigning in Wiltshire. PA -
Mr Sunak during a visit to Leander Club, in Henley-on-Thames, as a boat carrying Liberal Democrat supporters passes behind him. Reuters -
Mr Starmer meets pensioners to talk about the impact of the energy crisis and the cost of living, in a cafe in Bolton. PA -
Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer lock horns the first televised general election debate of the campaign, at MediaCity in Salford. PA -
Mr Davey plays Jenga using symbolic 'blue wall' blocks in Stockport. EPA -
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn poses outside Islington Town Hall, north London, after handing in his nomination papers for the general election, taking place on July 4. PA -
Mr Farage has a milkshake hurled at him during a campaign event in Clacton-on-Sea. EPA -
Mr Sunak launches the Conservative Party's campaign bus at Redcar Racecourse in north-east England. PA -
Labour launch their election campaign bus, with Mr Starmer, his deputy Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, in Uxbridge. Getty Images -
Mr Davey holds a balloon with a figure that represents the amount of votes the Liberal Democrat party lost by in Wimbledon. PA -
Mr Sunak feeds lambs as he visits Rowlinson's Farm during a Conservative general election campaign event in Gawsworth. Reuters -
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Mr Starmer, shadow secretary of state for energy security and net zero Ed Miliband and local candidate Martin McCluskey in Greenock. PA -
Mr Sunak holds a question and answer session during a visit to Niftylift in Milton Keynes. EPA -
Mr Starmer serves ice cream to day trippers on Barry seafront in South Wales. PA -
Mr Davey takes part in a baking lesson with pupils from High Beeches Primary School during a half-term holiday camp in Hertfordshire. PA -
Mr Sunak speaks with a cafe worker as he picks up breakfast for the media at a cafe in Cornwall. PA -
Mr Starmer speaks at the launch of Labour's six steps for change in Wales at the Priory Centre in Abergavenny. PA -
Mr Davey and Anna Sabine, parliamentary candidate for Frome and East Somerset, ride the Ultimate Slip 'n' Slide at Eastcote Farm in Beckington. Bloomberg -
Scottish National Party Leader John Swinney speaks during a visit to The Dower House Cafe in Edinburgh. AP -
Rishi Sunak examines Jackal armoured vehicles during his visit to defence vehicle manufacturer Supacat in Exeter. PA -
Keir Starmer with a baby at Worcester City Football Club. PA -
Ed Davey rides a bike during a visit to Knighton, Wales. PA -
Nigel Farage at the cliffs in Dover after speaking at a Reform UK event. Getty Images -
Akshata Murty, wife of Mr Sunak, meets with residents during a visit to a Royal British Legion care home in Ripon. Getty Images -
Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves during a visit to Rolls Royce’s educational training complex in Derby. PA -
Ed Davey falls into the water while paddle boarding on Lake Windermere. PA -
Rishi Sunak campaigning in Amersham, Buckinghamshire. EPA -
Mr Starmer addresses party members and media in Lancing Parish Hall, West Sussex. Getty Images -
Mr Davey launches his party's general election campaign battle bus in Cambridge. PA -
Mr Sunak on the ball during a visit to Chesham United Football Club. PA -
Mr Starmer speaks to party supporters after making his first keynote speech of the campaign in Lancing. PA -
Mr Davey join supporters for a dog walk near Winchester. PA -
Mr Sunak visits a maritime technology centre in Belfast, Northern Ireland, as he campaigns for the general election on July 4. Reuters -
Mr Starmer and his Scottish counterpart, Anas Sarwar, greet supporters at the launch of the Scottish Labour general election campaign at Caledonia House in Glasgow. Getty Images -
Mr Davey, right, eats ice cream with his party's local candidate, Josh Babarinde, on the promenade in Eastbourne. PA -
Mr Sunak arrives at Inverness Airport, in Scotland, on the general election campaign trail. PA -
Mr Starmer during a visit to Gillingham Football Club in Kent. PA -
Mr Sunak speaks with members of staff at the Global Energy Group facility at the Port of Nigg in north-east Scotland. AFP -
Mr Davey during a visit to the town centre in Cheltenham. PA -
Richard Tice, the leader of Reform UK, attends an election campaign launch in London. AP -
Mr Sunak holds a Q&A with staff of a West Transport distribution centre in Ilkeston in the East Midlands. AP -
Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner and Mr Starmer arrive at Gillingham FC. Getty Images -
Mr Sunak takes questions from workers at West Transport. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer holds a piece of campaign branding at Gillingham. PA -
Mr Sunak poses for a selfie in Ilkeston. AFP
This poll of more than 2,000 adults in the UK was conducted before the televised debate between the two US presidential contenders, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite Mr Biden’s shaky performance, such is the gap between the two that it’s safe to say that Britain supports Mr Biden. Just 24 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Trump. That may have changed, post the TV head-to-head, but he would have to make up a lot of ground before becoming even close.
There is the semblance of a policy remit here for Mr Starmer: ban arms sales to Israel; bring Israel and Hamas to the negotiating table; likewise, Ukraine and Russia; bring immigration down; align with Mr Biden or if not him, the Democrat candidate against Trump, and put Mr Sunak’s conscription plan on the shelf. All easier said than done but he would be foolish to beg to differ.
