With the general election only days away, Rishi Sunak could be forgiven for ignoring the polls. They make for grim reading.
In that respect, a Deltapoll survey for The National confirms that this coming Friday will be his last in office, if the polls are accurate – though they have been wrong in the past. From the very outset, when the Prime Minister announced the ballot in the pouring rain, and throughout the campaign, the polls have consistently pointed to this outcome.
As he heads for the exit, Mr Sunak can take a degree of comfort from the fact that on the two main foreign affairs issues of the moment, Gaza and Ukraine, he is reckoned to have done a reasonably good job. More people had a positive view of the government’s policy in both areas than negative.
Mr Sunak seemed comfortable on the world stage, avoiding causing offence, not making any gaffes, smoothly gladhanding and encouraging other countries to take Britain seriously again – no mean achievement after the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss regimes. Mr Johnson, to be fair, had a good Ukraine-Russia war, but his constant clowning around and buffoonery counted against him. Ms Truss, in some of her actions and outpourings, also managed to ruffle feathers. Mr Sunak, aided by a revitalised former Premier in UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, proved himself more widely acceptable, particularly at the gatherings of world leaders.
It is ironic then that it was precisely a coming together of leaders, to mark the anniversary of D-Day, that drove another nail into Mr Sunak’s Downing Street coffin, questioning his own credentials for the highest office when he left the commemoration early to conduct a TV interview.
What is striking about this survey is the differences between ages. With Labour intent on lowering the voting age to 16, this direction of opinion, provides food for future thought. On Gaza, for instance, a thumping 65 per cent of Generation Z say they would support recognition of an independent state of Palestine, compared with just 46 per cent of Baby Boomers. As this younger generation advances, so are demands for a Palestinian state likely to grow.
Similarly, on the banning of arms sales to Israel, 73 per cent of Generation Z are in favour, versus only 47 per cent of Baby Boomers.
Young Labour supporters, the poll shows, attach great importance to the Gaza situation. Overall, it is not an important issue for more than half (56 per cent) of respondents, including nearly a third (31 per cent) who say it is not at all important. But for the younger folk it is, and especially for Labour’s young, and moving forward that must carry greater weight.
Keir Starmer will come under pressure to call for a full ceasefire in Gaza and to allow protests calling for a cessation of the fighting to continue, the poll finds.
A plurality, 43 per cent, supports a negotiated diplomatic settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. About one in 14 favour military action while one in six back a role for the UN. A further third, exactly 33 per cent, do not know. This pattern is then broadly replicated across different political and social groups.
On Ukraine, that stance is the same, with most people (48 per cent) wanting a negotiated diplomatic settlement, as opposed to promoting military action against Russia.
One of Mr Sunak’s most eye-catching new policy proposals, National Service for 18-year-olds, does not get the approval rating he would have wished. Across the board, it attracted only 38 per cent support. Even among his own Tories, it was not resoundingly popular, with 43 per cent either opposed or unsure.
The strength of opposition in Generation Z, the section of the population directly affected by the move, suggest he could have mass demonstrations, if not riots, on his hands should it step towards becoming law. An overwhelming 81 per cent said they could not back the idea.
A major topic of debate this election is immigration. The poll provides firm evidence for why Nigel Farage’s Reform party, which wants to curb the number of foreigners settling in the UK should be enjoying a surge in popularity.
Right across the main political parties, the number seeking a reduction in numbers far outweighs those saying they should stay the same or increase. As expected, among Reform supporters it’s higher still, at 79 per cent. But those breakdowns for the Tories, Labour and Lib-Dems suggests strong cross-party desire for immigration to fall.
This points to an early headache for the new Prime Minister, assuming it’s Mr Starmer. Labour policies in this area are somewhat hazy, but 55 per cent of Labour voters are against an increase or maintaining the status quo. Clearly, he is picking up the baton and will be expected to follow through, while not with flights to Rwanda, with something concrete that will bring immigration down.
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This poll of more than 2,000 adults in the UK was conducted before the televised debate between the two US presidential contenders, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite Mr Biden’s shaky performance, such is the gap between the two that it’s safe to say that Britain supports Mr Biden. Just 24 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Trump. That may have changed, post the TV head-to-head, but he would have to make up a lot of ground before becoming even close.
There is the semblance of a policy remit here for Mr Starmer: ban arms sales to Israel; bring Israel and Hamas to the negotiating table; likewise, Ukraine and Russia; bring immigration down; align with Mr Biden or if not him, the Democrat candidate against Trump, and put Mr Sunak’s conscription plan on the shelf. All easier said than done but he would be foolish to beg to differ.
