Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Annular Mode … with names like these is it understandable that, if pushed to name a global weather pattern, many people would plump for “El Nino”.
It is perhaps testament to the phenomenon’s powerful influence that its name is relatively well-known. Taking place about every two to seven years, its warming of ocean surface temperatures can cause extreme rainfall in some regions and droughts in others. It is also back in the news, with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres last week warning that El Nino conditions “will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world”.
World Meteorological Organisation scientists say there is an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during between now and August. “Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing,” the WMO says, “most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong”.
This threatens to exacerbate the rising temperatures and increasingly extreme weather that are confronting much of the world. Heat records were smashed across Europe in May and in the same month, a weather alert was issued in the UAE when temperatures looked set to exceed 50°C in some parts of the country during the Eid Al Adha break.
How countries react to this challenge is something that will affect millions of peoples’ lives for decades to come. In some nations, extreme heat is still periodic and something of an abstract problem. In the UAE, however, extreme summer temperatures have been a reality for generations. It is also something that has shaped how the Emirates developed and where it is headed.
Heat resilience has, by necessity, been hardwired into UAE communities. The Emirates has had the advantage of being a young country and this blank canvas allowed it to design cities and buildings in which cooling features were infrastructure, not landscaping.
Examples of this can be seen in Dubai where the Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation operates infrastructure that includes an underground distribution pipeline network of more than 430km and 90 strategically located district cooling plants. In Abu Dhabi, the Estidama Pearl Rating System requires efficient building design, especially regarding cooling and heat dispersion. After the exceptional rainstorms of 2024, billions of dirhams have earmarked for drainage projects and other resilience measures across the country.
In terms of policy too, the UAE has made increasingly unpredictable weather a top priority. In April, Dr Abdulla Al Mandous, director general of the National Centre of Meteorology, was granted the rank of minister by President Sheikh Mohamed. This reflects the seriousness with which the Emirates takes the challenges that are unfolding.
It is much more challenging for older states to retrofit their cities and towns with the kind of cooling infrastructure taking shape in the Emirates. But with new technologies emerging in the UAE, the country’s use of renewable power and its proactive urban planning, there will be some valuable lessons to be learned from the Emirati experience.
