An attack that killed three US personnel, including two soldiers and an interpreter, in Syria on Saturday is another disturbing reminder of the threat that ISIS continues to pose to regional security. It also undermines co-operation between the US and Syria in their counter-terrorism mission, only a month after Damascus joined the global coalition to defeat the extremist group.
According to the Pentagon, a lone gunman “associated with ISIS” opened fire on US personnel stationed in the Syrian town of Palmyra, situated in the central desert region once held by the group, before he was eventually killed. Syria’s state news said two Syrian service personnel were also injured.
The American response to the ambush was immediate. President Donald Trump called for a “very serious retaliation” after which the US military sent F-16 and A-10 aircraft over Palmyra, with one video showing the latter dropping flares.
But beyond this show of force – and the escalation that could follow, perhaps involving other member states of the global coalition – the broader efforts aimed at ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS will be long and painstaking.
More than a decade after it established its now-defunct, so-called Islamic State across Syria and Iraq, the group still has between 5,000 and 7,000 fighters in these countries, according to the UN. That the gunman may have been a former member of the Syrian security forces not only raises concerns about Damascus’s vetting process to recruit soldiers, but also highlights the presence of sleeper cells associated with the group across the region. There will be extremists adamant on destroying the potential Syria has to prosper, as it shakes off decades of authoritarian rule.
But while counter-terrorism is a critical component in any strategy to defeat extremist groups, such a strategy is bound to fail in the absence of a long-term plan to tackle the most critical problem that gives rise to these groups: social polarisation.
Syria remains broken after decades of bad governance and a 14-year civil war to depose erstwhile president Bashar Al Assad left more than half a million people dead and displaced over 13 million others. A year has gone by since the Assad regime was removed and the war came to an end, but its society continues to be deeply polarised.
Challenges around inclusivity, security sector reform and disarming armed groups remain. Since December last year, when Ahmad Al Shara took power, thousands of Syrians have been killed in numerous sectarian clashes, some allegedly involving the more extremist members of the forces aligned to the President. Violence continues to be a daily feature, with Saturday’s ambush against US personnel coming a day after an explosion at a wedding hall injured 33 people in the southern city of Deraa.
Mr Al Shara and numerous Syrian officials have no doubt begun their nation-building process in earnest. But they have yet to establish security structures and build inclusive governance systems that can convince all of Syria’s myriad communities to join this process. Disagreements persist over issues like representation and devolution of power. The longer it takes to resolve these matters, the longer the period of unrest will continue, leading to security and governance vacuums. Radicalisation will rise in these conditions, which will only serve to strengthen groups such as ISIS.
The upside for Damascus is that the solution already exists, but it needs to act swiftly, with regional and external support.
