Yahya Sinwar led Palestinians down a dark road

Yahya Sinwar attends a rally in Gaza city in April last year. By choosing the path of all-out confrontation with Israel, Mr Sinwar undoubtedly expected to die. EPA

In one sense, the violent death of the once-powerful Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seems to have changed little. In the hours following his demise in a rubble-strewn apartment, several people were killed in an Israeli strike on a house in Gaza’s Al Shati camp and Hezbollah launched missiles at Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon. Israeli hostages and thousands of Palestinian detainees remain in captivity.

And yet, this conflict may have reached a turning point. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and French President Emmanuel Macron have both called Mr Sinwar’s death an “opportunity” to reach a ceasefire. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign minister, described the Hamas leader as an “obstacle” to ending the war. Although, the killing of Mr Sinwar – that followed the assassination of fellow Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh – may have weakened the organisation, which publicly remains bellicose, it would be unwise to speculate about what happens next in such a volatile situation.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dead at 61

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Nevertheless, this is undoubtedly an important moment that requires some reflection. Mr Sinwar, regarded as the architect of the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, joins the more than 42,400 Palestinians to have lost their lives in Israel’s subsequent reprisal – a military operation that long ago surpassed any reasonable definition of self-defence. Unlike the majority of the Palestinian dead – mostly made up of non-combatants, women, children, aid workers, medics, journalists and others – by choosing the path of all-out direct armed confrontation with Israel, Mr Sinwar undoubtedly expected to die and publicly said he welcomed death. This was not a choice that he, nor his organisation, afforded to the Palestinian people ostensibly under their protection

Undoubtedly Mr Sinwar will continue to polarise opinion. Those who adhere to militant ideology will regard the manner of his passing – dressed in military garb, injured and alone but defiant to the end – as reason to laud him as a resistance fighter. Others will remember him as being the man who oversaw an attack that not only claimed many Israeli civilian lives but drew the wrath of one of the Middle East’s most advanced militaries on the heads of the people of Gaza, and plunge the wider region in chaos. For many, Mr Sinwar’s wild gamble – that his operation would inspire other regional forces to violently end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land – led the Palestinian people into the abyss.

Mr Sinwar leaves many questions behind. Who will lead Hamas negotiations? What now of the remaining Israeli hostages and thousands of Palestinian detainees? Will Hamas splinter? Will a more pragmatic figure emerge? Only time will tell, but events are moving quickly and this is a moment for some hard-headed decisions on how to end this brutal and costly conflict.

Mr Sinwar’s wild gamble – that his operation would inspire other regional forces to violently end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land – led the Palestinian people into the abyss

Those in Israel’s leadership who think the war is an opportunity to reshape the Middle East, resettle Gaza and increase its chokehold on the West Bank may feel further emboldened by the death of their arch enemy. Wiser leaders – confronted by missile strikes from Iran and Yemen, a stretched military, a weakened economy and tarnished international reputation – may view the former Hamas leader’s death as an exit ramp out of a war in which there are no winners. Similarly, Hamas’s remaining leaders could decide that by having forced the occupation to the world’s attention and ensnaring Israel in a regional conflict, they can now reach a settlement.

Whatever happens next, Mr Sinwar will not witness it. His militarism led the Palestinians – and the region – down a dark and violent road, from which they have yet to emerge. He will not have to grapple with the less-revolutionary but heroic work of peacemaking and rebuilding a shattered society. Nevertheless, that is a task that needs to begin as soon as possible, and for that to happen the wars in the Levant must end.