Donald Trump lives in a cocoon. He is surrounded by White House staff, advisers, family, and people who allow him to cheat at golf so that he can be happy claiming to "win". He also has 71 million voters behind him. But does Mr Trump have any friends – people he trusts to tell him the truth about the mess that he is in and the risks for his country if he refuses to concede the election?
Since Mr Trump is Number One in his personal universe, it must be difficult to have true pals. Nor does he show much loyalty to his enablers.
Kathryn Dunn Tenpas of Washington's Brookings Institution this month produced a kind of spreadsheet called "Tracking the Turnover in the Trump Administration". It's fascinating to read. Both what Ms Tenpas calls Mr Trump's "A-Team" of top officials and a separate set of calculations for Mr Trump's cabinet appointees show a high level of churn. He changes key appointments more often than any other president in the study going back 40 years. Even in defeat Mr Trump is using his lame-duck presidency to clear out top officials at the Department of Defence.
His TV career suggests he enjoys firing people, but he also belittles them. He fired one of his communications managers, Anthony Scaramucci, and later tweeted: "Anthony Scaramucci, who was quickly terminated [in 11 days] from a position that he was totally incapable of handling, now seems to do nothing but television as the all-time expert on 'President Trump'. Like many other so-called television experts, he knows very little about me." But if Mr Scaramucci was so obviously "totally incapable", why exactly did Mr Trump hire him?
The question is whether Donald Trump's close aides, including members of his own family, are telling him what really needs to know. AFP
The same judgement questions occur in Britain. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has just cleared out two of his most controversial appointments, Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain. Mr Cummings and Mr Cain worked together on Vote Leave, the campaign to get Britain out of the European Union. Mr Cummings advised Mr Johnson to get rid of non-partisan top civil servants to shake up the so-called "Whitehall elite" that he despised. Many quit or were forced out – in Britain it's often unclear which – and now it's Mr Cummings and Mr Cain's turn to go. Whether they jumped or were pushed is again a matter of debate.
What is certain is that these two ardent pro-Brexit campaigners are leaving just as their central ambition, Brexit itself, becomes a reality.
It's probably a lucky escape before the ship of state hits the rocks, or at least chaos at the ports. Road hauliers, truckers and shippers are deeply worried about shipping bottlenecks and traffic jams on major roads to the coast. Some hope Mr Johnson is finally coming to terms with how destructive a "No Deal" Brexit will be, and that he will now accept a compromise deal with the EU. As this column has argued – literally for years – a No Deal Brexit will seriously damage the UK economy, while a negotiated deal will do less damage. But a deal that is better for Britain may be much worse for Mr Johnson.
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage forecasts betrayal. He tweeted: “It is well documented that I have never liked Dominic Cummings but he has backed Brexit. Seeing him leave Number 10 carrying a cardboard box tells me a Brexit sell-out is close.” The "Brexit Beast" can never be satisfied. It eats its own.
In difficult times therefore, Mr Johnson, like Mr Trump, is in need of a friend. But who can he trust? Mr Johnson, again like Mr Trump, has cleared out those brave enough to tell him what he does not want to hear. His cabinet is replete with yes-men and yes-women.
Mr Trump and Mr Johnson both lack a Harry Hopkins. He was the key adviser of former US president Franklin D Roosevelt in the 1930s and 40s. Hopkins held various formal roles, including that of commerce secretary, but it was as Roosevelt’s friend and fixer that Hopkins shines in history, acting as liaison between Roosevelt and former British prime minister Winston Churchill in the Second World War.
Franklin D Roosevelt, right, often relied on Harry Hopkins' counsel during his presidency of the US in the 1930s and 40s. Getty Images
Harry Truman, the former US president, once advised, 'if you want a friend in Washington, get a dog'
Churchill also trusted him implicitly. Hopkins suggested to Roosevelt that he should explain to the American people the US needed to be the “arsenal of democracy” helping Britain stand up to Adolf Hitler. Roosevelt once told a political rival that being president was such a lonely job “and you’ll discover the need for someone like Harry Hopkins who asks for nothing except to serve you".
It’s too late for Mr Trump. Perhaps some member of his family will be brave enough to tell him the facts. The votes are in and he has definitively lost the presidency. But family loyalty and friendship are not the same.
It may also be too late for Mr Johnson. Whatever he does on Brexit is not going to please everyone, and may please no one. Harry Truman, Roosevelt’s successor in the White House, once advised, “if you want a friend in Washington, get a dog". Mr Johnson already has a dog. He’s called Dilyn. Dilyn appears only occasionally in photo-opportunities and his advice on Brexit may, like much of the British debate, simply be barking.
Gavin Esler is a broadcaster and UK columnist for The National
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
