KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
All eyes are on Iran's military response to the assassination of Qassem Suleimani by a US drone strike in Baghdad on Friday. Will Tehran have one of its many proxy forces throw missiles at an American embassy? Will it kidnap American citizens? Will it disrupt shipping in the Gulf, or will it have Lebanese Hezbollah strike at Israel? Iran has demonstrated its ability to do all of the above and more in the past but has not yet done so in retaliation to the killing of Suleimani, who was commander of the Quds Force, a unit of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. If they are as strategically-minded as we are often told they are – "they spend decades making a carpet", as the Friedmanesque adage goes – then it makes sense for them to opt for a different route.
Iran finds itself in a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, it needs to respond in a manner commensurate with the magnitude of Suleimani's assassination. In that sense, its response cannot be restricted to having proxies throw unguided missiles at the vicinity of US troops or personnel as it might well end up signalling Iranian feebleness more than anything else. On the other hand, the need to stage a meaningful retaliation will have to be balanced against the fact that the Iranians are dealing with an administration that has demonstrated a willingness to strike hard.
Rather than a military response, which is unlikely to amount to much more than an expression of performative violence that achieves little while possibly inviting overwhelming violence from an unpredictable US commander-in-chief, the Iranians – assuming they are the carpet-weavers we so often hear of – are far more likely to opt for a gradual response. One that has enough subtlety and deniability to achieve their objective and strike back at the US while avoiding the wrath of the US military machine. This is where Iraq comes in.
Thus far – and it is early days – the Iranians seem to have opted for such a course. Rather than striking at US embassies and installations with superficial attacks using low-grade missiles, they have instead mobilised the one thing they are certain of outmatching their American rivals in: their political clout and assets in Iraq.
Iraq is in the unfortunate position of being the most cost-effective messaging board for US-Iranian rivalry.
Sadly, Yemeni suffering only matters to global opinion if it spills into Saudi Arabia – something that can only go so far before inviting massive counter-attacks particularly now that US president Donald Trump’s febrile attention is focused on Iran. Likewise, Lebanon can be used as a front from which to attack Israel but what would the supposedly strategically-minded Iranians achieve from such a move other than the devastation of Lebanon and, at the most, a bruising of Israel’s sense of security? Iraq on the other hand, and to its lasting misfortune, provides the most effective setting for retaliation.
The assassinations almost immediately saw the galvanisation of Iran's political assets and allies in Iraq. In the past, its repeated attempts to force a US withdrawal from Iraq have always had the flavour of empty rhetoric about them. This time it is different. The stance of many Iraqi politicians towards Iran today is likely to be similar to that of world leaders towards the US after the September 11, 2001 attacks: compulsory solidarity, fear and, in some cases, indignation. However, the mobilisation of Iran-leaning politicians is not just a function of external pressure. It serves a domestic purpose of outflanking political rivals, alleviating the enormous pressure that has been built since the outbreak of mass protests in October, and consolidating the position of Shiite-centric political actors at this critical juncture of Iraqi government formation.
If they succeed, this could well prove to be Iran’s most potent response – certainly more effective than anything they possess in their military arsenal. It would secure Iran’s grip on Iraq and achieve the long-held aim of a US withdrawal. Even if the US stops short of a total withdrawal, the political arithmetic and balance of power within Iraqi politics have shifted further towards Iran’s favour. The assassinations have disrupted Iraq’s perpetual balancing act between its relations with the US and Iran in favour of the latter. Even Muqtada Al Sadr, long seen as a check on Iranian ambitions in Iraq, has reverted to the language of resistance and re-centred anti-Americanism in his messaging. Indeed, he criticised the Iraqi parliament’s resolution against the US military presence for not being tough enough.
The American withdrawal from Iraq is far from a done deal – though a repositioning and a possible drawdown seem all but certain. There is pushback against the idea from Kurdish and Sunni politicians who fear the emergence of an Iran-leaning majoritarian government in Baghdad. There will also be considerable popular opposition. The protest movement continues to push for systemic change while standing against foreign interference in Iraq. While this is aimed at all external interference, Iran takes the lion’s share of opprobrium commensurate with the scale of its influence in Iraq. Many Iraqis, concerned at Iran’s role in their country, will fear that a US withdrawal will only deepen the Iranian presence in Iraq. Finally, there are also concerns about the impact of a withdrawal on the fight against ISIS. Though diminished, ISIS stands to gain from a US withdrawal; their ravaged former holdings have much reason to fear renewed suffering and conflict on top of their ongoing hardships.
Despite his repeated proclamations against US military adventurism in the Middle East, and his patent lack of interest in Iraq, Mr Trump has completely rejected the idea of a withdrawal. His threat to slap sanctions on Iraq has the potential to devastate the country. Even revoking the sanctions-waiver that has been granted to Iraq for Iranian energy could destabilise the country. But US sanctions on Iraq itself would effectively mean the Americans destroying Iraq for the third time in three decades. The possibility of such a scenario could blunt the effort to eject the US from Iraq. It certainly gives Iraqi politicians pause for thought as it does for the Iranians. Iraq has provided Tehran with one of its few sources of relief from the ongoing US-imposed economic siege. Iran stands to lose a lot without an Iraq that is plugged into the global economy.
It is difficult to imagine a realistic scenario that does not spell bad news for Iraq. Internal tensions – between centre and periphery, between pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian, between the political elite and the forces of change, and within the political elite itself – will be sharpened. An increase in violence, be it relating to ISIS, internecine political squabbles or the protest movement, is also likely. Iraq’s diplomatic standing and economic future are likewise threatened by the current crisis. Beyond Iraq, regional stability, precarious at the best of times, is hanging by a thread. As ever, the price of the foolishness, intransigence and disregard for human lives that marks US-Iranian rivalry is primarily borne by others. Iraq is on the frontline and the region is on the precipice.
Fanar Haddad is senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Company%20profile
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
START-UPS%20IN%20BATCH%204%20OF%20SANABIL%20500'S%20ACCELERATOR%20PROGRAMME
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
LEAGUE CUP QUARTER-FINAL DRAW
Stoke City v Tottenham
Brentford v Newcastle United
Arsenal v Manchester City
Everton v Manchester United
All ties are to be played the week commencing December 21.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
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Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs
A4 35 TFSI
Engine: 2.0-litre, four-cylinder
Transmission: seven-speed S-tronic automatic
Power: 150bhp
Torque: 270Nm
Price: Dh150,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
A4 S4 TDI
Engine: 3.0-litre V6 turbo diesel
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 350bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh165,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
End of free parking
- paid-for parking will be rolled across Abu Dhabi island on August 18
- drivers will have three working weeks leeway before fines are issued
- areas that are currently free to park - around Sheikh Zayed Bridge, Maqta Bridge, Mussaffah Bridge and the Corniche - will now require a ticket
- villa residents will need a permit to park outside their home. One vehicle is Dh800 and a second is Dh1,200.
- The penalty for failing to pay for a ticket after 10 minutes will be Dh200
- Parking on a patch of sand will incur a fine of Dh300
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI