Times are tough for Republican strategists. With the November 3 midterm elections looming, they are desperately seeking a closing argument that explains why Americans should give US President Donald Trump and his party another two years in charge of Congress.
In 2024, Mr Trump campaigned on lowering energy prices and inflation, ending “forever” wars, putting America first and clamping down on immigration.
Two years on, his checklist of promises looks more like a litany of liabilities.
Republicans are now trying to convince Americans that soaring fuel costs will be worth it in the long run, and that the US is enjoying a “Golden Age”, as inflation rises. Even one of Mr Trump's signature achievements – slashing illegal immigration – has become a liability, as voters react with horror to mass round-ups of suspected migrants and the killings of US citizens by masked federal officers.
And then, of course, there is Iran.
Mr Trump has yet to find an exit from the war he started, and he has turned to none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin for help. A diesel purchase deal with Moscow, which critics say will do little to bring down fuel prices, will also put money into the Kremlin's coffers to help finance its war machine in Ukraine. And a bipartisan group of US senators has warned that the revenues could also aid Russia's security co-operation with Iran – you know, the same country that America is at war with.
The not-very-America-First vibe doesn’t give Republicans a lot to work with. They've tried blaming former president Joe Biden for everything amiss in the world. But Mr Biden has been out of office for nearly two years, and by some measures the economy was performing better at the end of his term than it is today.
Which brings us to the White House's latest midterms marketing masterstroke. The message: “Trust the process.”
“Bottom line, it’s all gonna work out. You know why? It always does," the White House said on X.
In other words, the Republican strategy for winning the midterms essentially comes down to magical thinking: Trust us, everything will be fine … because we say it will.
It is a curious pitch to make for a president who has often promised better days are just around the corner. People don't want a process, they want results. Mr Trump's promises that Americans would win so much they would become "sick and tired of winning" appear to be falling flat for a critical mass of voters.
Recent polls put Mr Trump's approval rating in the low-to-mid 30s. In the 2018 midterms, during his previous term in office, the Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives and surrendered 40 seats. Mr Trump's approval rating then was generally in the low 40s.
Republicans insist such surveys overcount Democratic support and speak of some epic polling blunders, including the prediction that Hillary Clinton would win the White House when she ran against Mr Trump in 2016. But while polls definitely can get things wrong, that does not amount to a campaign strategy in and of itself.
Five Grand Old Party
Mr Trump, who has railed against Democrats as "socialists", has promised a $5,000 "dividend" cheque to every adult American, should the Republicans retain control of the US Senate and the House of Representatives.
He doesn't have the independent authority to order such payments, which would cost about $1.2 trillion, and some scholars contend that the offer amounts to a political bribe.
Many remember Elon Musk's promise of a $5,000 rebate cheque from all the money the US was going to save through his slashes to the federal workforce, or Mr Trump's vow that tariffs would generate $2,000 reimbursements for citizens.
What ended up happening, of course, is the national debt ballooned despite Mr Musk's cuts, while tariffs fuelled a jump in costs for US consumers. Fewer people seem as willing to believe the "cheques are in the post" promises as they were in the past.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump still sees himself as the kingmaker who is adored by his party. Yet signs of trouble abound, as vulnerable Republicans quietly try to put some distance between themselves and their leader.
In Michigan, Mike Rogers, the Trump-endorsed Republican Senate candidate running against Abdul El Sayed, is running an advertisement saying: “The war with Iran needs to end – and end quickly." It's a striking contrast from the Republican talking point that the economic pain from the war is worth it.
Other Republicans are playing down their association with Mr Trump. Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee for Florida governor, removed eight references to the President, a photograph of the pair together and an “Enact the Trump Agenda” section from his campaign website last month, according to Forbes.
Polls also suggest that voters are preoccupied with the economy and the cost of living, with many holding Mr Trump responsible for how those issues are being handled.
Aside from its "trust the process" argument, the Republican Party wants to persuade voters that the midterms are a choice between common sense and the Democrats' radical agenda of "men in women's sports" and an "open border". Those old culture war tropes may still resonate for many voters, but they don't help people at the petrol pump or at the supermarket checkout.
If the polls are to be believed, and judging by the sorry state of Republican messages, Mr Trump's party is on course for a "shellacking", to repeat the expression Barack Obama used in 2010 after his own midterm losses.
Trust the process? For a party struggling to explain why its promises have fallen short, it sounds less like a winning strategy than an admission that it has run out of answers.
