In a world of turmoil there is a glimmer of hope. Could the war between Russia and Ukraine be approaching its endgame? Reading the Kremlin tea leaves is a fool’s game but the facts on the battlefield and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest public statements provide evidence that something may have changed.
At Russia’s low-key Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square – no tanks, no massive missiles – Mr Putin repeated his usual justification for the Ukraine invasion. It began in 2014 when Russia seized Crimea and then paused until Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. In a repeat of the Kremlin’s position Mr Putin said this was a just war because Ukraine was an “aggressive force” that is “armed and supported by the whole bloc of Nato”.
Then the Russian President said something that deviated significantly from the usual script and caught the attention of Britain, the US and other Nato countries – especially Germany. Mr Putin said that he would be prepared to negotiate new security arrangements for Europe and that his preferred negotiating partner would be former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, someone who has had numerous – often controversial – business dealings in Russia.
"They [the West] promised assistance and then began fuelling a confrontation with Russia that continues to this day,” Mr Putin added. “I think that the matter is coming to an end, but it is a serious matter.” He went on to suggest that a meeting in a third country was possible, but only as part of a final deal.
For what it’s worth, European governments on Monday rejected the idea of Mr Schroeder as a go-between. However, the key idea is that “the matter is coming to an end”. What might that mean? Well, Mr Putin’s statement is certainly being chewed over in security and diplomatic circles in Nato capitals and in Kyiv. Kremlinology is an art rather than a science, but a story I was told by one former anti-communist student activist from 1980s East Germany offers some clues to what may happen.
In November 1989, the Berlin Wall fell and Germany was reunited. At the time, Mr Putin was a mid-ranking KGB operative in Dresden. He spoke fluent German and perhaps that helps explain his warm relationship with Mr Schroeder. In any event, during the chaos of that month, a large demonstration of students, workers and anti-communist activists surrounded the Dresden headquarters of the hated East German government’s secret police, the Stasi.
I was taken to the scene a few years ago by a businessman had been one of the Dresden student leaders. He explained that the secret police were peacefully disarmed, disbanded and sent home in disgrace by the students. Then the students turned their anger on the Russians. They crossed the road from the Stasi’s headquarters and surrounded the KGB headquarters a few hundred metres away.
The former student activist took me to the KGB house and as we stood outside, he reminisced about this scene from his youth. The protesters chanted outside the walls of the property for the Russians to leave. Suddenly a young, armed KGB officer came out. The students fell into silence. The KGB man was calm. He shouted out in perfect German that he and his comrades were packing their bags and would be returning to Russia as soon as possible but anyone entering KGB headquarters or interfering with them leaving would be shot on sight. The students loathed the KGB, but that officer demanded their respect. They let the Russians leave in peace. “That officer was Vladimir Putin,” the former activist told me.
Fast forward to May 2026. Russia’s war in Ukraine is going badly. The US Institute for the Study of War calculates that in April, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres of land they once held in Ukraine. There are “grey zones” where no-one has total control. The report claimed that “Russian forces have been using infiltration tactics in part to create the perception of continuous Russian advances across the front and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes” but “Russian forces, however, do not control these infiltration areas.”
Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, says that “in April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or seriously wounded,” and that Russia is “gradually drowning in losses”. The fog of war may therefore be clearing a little. The “special military operation” ordered by Mr Putin as a short conflict in 2022 has turned into a long and costly war, one that is economically damaging and increasingly unpopular in Russia. Could it be that Russia’s president in 2026 will remember the young KGB officer of 1989 – and find a way to extricate himself from a hopeless mess? Only Vladimir Putin can answer that question if and when he chooses to do so.
