Could Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin be the first national leader to lose his job over the fuel crisis hitting Europe as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran?
For someone as dedicated to his own political survival as Mr Martin, who first held a cabinet post in 1997, a loss of office now would seem a sudden twist of fate.
Nationwide protests at the government’s passivity in the face of a crisis just six weeks old certainly represents the first spark of trouble. And what’s happening in Ireland is almost bound to spread, not just in Europe but around the world in the coming weeks.
Ireland is fortunate in that it has the spare resources to absorb the coming hit. Many other countries, as will be made plain at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings this week, cannot stretch subsidies for energy that far.
What the rising price of fuel does to Ireland is particularly worth watching. Retail prices of diesel are already up by two thirds since the war broke out. As a rural economy with only the most perfunctory public transport services, Ireland is exposed in visceral ways to the “pumpxiety” affecting most parts of the world.
As the Irish actor Adrian Dunbar brought to global TV streaming attention, there is an expression – “now you’re sucking diesel” – that is deeply embedded in the popular discourse. It means that now you have got it right and have hit a particular sweet spot.
Happiness is a full tank of diesel for many in Ireland. If it is low-taxed, dyed-red diesel then so much the better.
Mr Martin had detached himself from these voters’ basic needs in ways that are now politically treacherous. Much of his coalition government has set up circumstances ill-suited to the current crisis. For example, carbon taxes, which are at the heart of its energy policies, are expected to rise from 18.7 euro cents (Dh0.80) a litre to 26.8 euro cents by 2030.
Unlike the US, Ireland has not seen a fracking revolution. Energy security looks like some far-off future of wind and batteries. In the here and now of diesel for vehicles and kerosene for heating oil, this is a supply gap for a small Western European landmass.
The Atlantic’s Celtic Sea may as well be an exploration-free zone. Like the UK and the North Sea, Ireland’s elite insists on its own ideological sophistry to lock out new fields or long-term projects. Mr Martin and his cohort are not about to recognise the reality that oil and gas have at least 25 years of relevance to an economy that is growing by sustaining its basic strengths and exploiting data for growth.
Blocked roads and city centre streets, country music singers broadcasting live, small-town marches and independent politicians haranguing the government coalition have contributed to the spontaneous strength of feeling among farmers, hauliers and small business.
In a political atmosphere charged to detect Russian and other nations’ bot-driven interference, Dublin made itself look tin-eared by writing off the protests as stirred up. Mr Martin himself made this political error.
In fact, monitors say that the instrumental accounts and organisers are organic. That is why they will not be alone in Europe or elsewhere in the world as we go deeper into this crisis.
Their indictment of the state for not being a source of help has also swept up the government’s migration policy. Comments and clips on this topic are part of the reason that cabinet ministers have sought to push back against so-called external digital interference.
Regardless, the basic charge is that the government is spending more than €1 billion (about the same amount in dollar terms) this year for accommodation and other migrant needs. Some organisers have alleged that the government spends as much as €6 billion on payments such as these and other charitable support grants. In their telling, this money should be redistributed to address the fuel crisis.
In an emergency meeting on Sunday night, the government tried to bridge the gap with protesters. Mr Martin announced some reductions in fuel taxes and a delay in a carbon tax increase. But it is hard to see critics being swayed by incremental measures. One politician described it as a “small step, forced by the public”.
The sight of oil tankers lingering offshore waiting to embark with their cargo jars with the need for supplies at the pump. The environment is already fraught, and the scramble to secure fuel is only likely to get worse in the coming weeks.
Blaming the protesters for Ireland’s relatively precarious geographical position and dependence on fuel is not a good political response.
Mr Martin has, in any case, reached the stage of political life where he is known to snap at what he regards as impertinence. Using the police and army to keep the roads open is a duty of the government, but it inflames the social media tempers around the protests.
In short, Mr Martin is facing a treacherous period. So, too, will be many European leaders in the months ahead.
