The global fight against climate change stands at a critical juncture. Despite bold pledges, such as the commitment made at the Cop28 climate conference to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, the world remains off-track in its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
The effects of global warming have become more evident than ever, with record-high temperatures sweeping across Europe, Asia, and North America this summer, endangering lives, livelihoods, and industries. But where are we truly at in this fight, and what does the data tell us about our progress and the challenges ahead?
A mixed picture
Renewable energy has gained momentum, fuelled by decreasing costs and the urgent need for cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels still made up 81.5 per cent of primary energy – or directly used sources – of consumption in 2023. This is a stark reminder of the world’s continued dependence on coal, oil and gas, according to the Statistical Review published by UK's Energy Institute.
Despite significant investments and political commitments, renewables' share of total primary energy consumption increased only marginally, reaching 14.6 per cent last year. This slow progress was underscored by a June report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned that the world is on course to only roughly double – rather than triple – global renewable energy capacity by 2030 under current policies and trends.
“It’s not enough yet to reach the Cop28 goal of tripling renewables, but we’re moving closer – and governments have the tools needed to close the gap,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director said in an earlier report.
Several of the world's largest economies have introduced regulations and programmes to promote the use of clean energy. The EU’s REPowerEU plan, introduced two years ago, aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the bloc’s gross final consumption to 45 per cent by 2030, up from a previous target of 40 per cent. It also includes boosting renewable hydrogen production to 10 million tonnes per year by the end of the decade.
The US has enacted the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers a series of tax incentives on wind, solar, hydropower and other renewables, as well as a push towards electric vehicle ownership. In Asia, China aims to increase renewable energy generation by 50 per cent by 2025, while India plans to have half of its power-generating capacity come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.
Solar blowing off steam
These plans come as the global solar sector grapples with oversupply issues that have driven down solar panel prices. “Currently, there is a glut in manufacturing capacity in solar … and if the incentives in Europe and the US are successful that’s just going to exacerbate the situation,” said Jeremy Crane, the group chief executive of Yellow Door Energy.
“So, for ourselves as developers [and] investors in renewables, when the cost of equipment comes down due to the glut in the global market, that enables us to provide power at lower costs to our customers,” Mr Crane told The National.
The Dubai-based Yellow Door Energy has more than 240 megawatts of solar projects in the Middle East and Africa. Mr Crane said that it is "very hard" to predict how long the current low costs of solar equipment will continue. “We're anticipating there could be some consolidation in the panel manufacturing space … that’s a normal outcome.”
China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been instrumental in bringing down costs worldwide for solar photovoltaics (PV). At the same time, Beijing’s solar dominance has set off alarm bells in the West, where concerns are growing about protecting domestic manufacturing.
In May, the US announced a major increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, raising duties on electric vehicles to 100 per cent, doubling tariffs on semiconductors and solar cells to 50 per cent. Washington also introduced new 25 per cent tariffs on lithium-ion batteries and other strategic commodities such as steel. Similar tariffs were subsequently imposed by the EU and Canada.
Despite the geopolitical challenges, solar energy is the only renewable source that’s currently on track to meet 2050 net zero targets, the IEA said in a report last year.
Headwinds curbing wind power growth
Wind power, viewed as a key pillar in reducing global carbon emissions, has in recent years been plagued by high inflation and supply chain issues. These obstacles include delayed permits, postponed auctions and slow supply chain development.
Siemens Energy, the world’s top manufacturer of offshore wind turbines, anticipates a 2024 loss of about €2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) at its Siemens Gamesa subsidiary, excluding one-time charges. Siemens Gamesa has experienced problems with components in its onshore wind turbines, resulting in substantial financial losses and delays in project execution.
“The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fuelled by increased investment and auction activity,” said Petra Manuel, senior analyst, offshore wind at Rystad Energy. “While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance."
The sector staved off challenges in 2023, recording a 7 per cent increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year, the Norway-based consultancy said. This momentum is expected to accelerate this year, with new capacity additions expected to grow by 9 per cent to over 11 gigawatts.
Europe is set to play a key role in the growth of floating wind energy, heavily relying on it to meet ambitious national targets and tap into offshore resources.
Fuelling discourse
The shift to clean energy is complex, with various viewpoints and challenges. Multiple studies and projections related to renewable energy and carbon emissions are based on assumptions about peak fossil fuel demand.
The IEA, which represents Western industrialised countries and also Turkey and Japan, forecasts that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030, based on the continuing transition to cleaner energy sources such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, as well as the increasing efficiency of energy use. While the oil producers group Opec acknowledges the growing importance of renewable energy, it has often expressed scepticism about the notion of peak oil.
“We believe oil will continue to be a vital component of future energy pathways and this is exemplified by the fact petroleum products are essential for the functioning of other sectors, such as electricity,” Haitham Al Ghais, Opec’s secretary general said in a July statement. “Hopefully, the notion that energy sources must be pitted against each other can be dispelled and, instead, policymakers can be clear-headed about energy realities and energy interconnectedness.”
In November, Azerbaijan will host the Cop29 climate conference, where discussions will build on the focus on renewables and nuclear power from last year’s climate summit in Dubai.
The oil and gas industry, which is responsible for around a fifth of global emissions, has been taking steps to reduce its emissions amid growing climate concerns and investor pressure. Initiatives such as methane reduction, carbon capture and energy efficiency improvements are being prioritised by global oil majors as well as some large state-run energy companies.
Many companies are increasing their focus on natural gas as a temporary solution in the shift towards cleaner energy sources. It is often seen as a less polluting alternative to coal and crude oil, making it a bridge between fossil fuels and renewable energy.
At an event in May, Qatar’s energy minister said climate pledges and promises were made by politicians “who don't understand the details of how you can achieve these transitions”. It became “in vogue” for policymakers to endorse environmentally friendly initiatives, such as aiming for net-zero emissions and supporting green policies, Saad Al Kaabi said. But when the “reality kicks in, you are asking – do you actually back off some of the targets?”, he added.
The IEA has projected a surge in liquefied natural gas projects from 2025, adding over 250 billion cubic metres of new capacity annually by 2030. But many experts have warned that increasing reliance on natural gas may hinder the long-term transition to cleaner forms of energy.
US election impact
The result of the US election, set to take place in November, could determine the direction of climate policies in the world’s largest economy and a major greenhouse gas emitting country. Republican candidate Donald Trump has vowed to take the US out of the Paris climate deal for a second time if elected. There are also concerns Mr Trump could cancel the IRA altogether.
While it is "not likely that the IRA will be fully repealed", a second Trump presidency "would likely issue executive orders that would abandon the 2035 net zero target for the power sector, establish softer emissions goals … and issue tax credit regulations that could favour blue hydrogen", David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition research, said in a research note in May.
Meanwhile, the current US Vice President Kamala Harris is widely expected to continue Joe Biden’s policies if she is elected. In a recent CNN interview, Ms Harris said that she would not ban fracking if elected president, a shift from her stance during her first presidential campaign.
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Changing visa rules
For decades the UAE has granted two and three year visas to foreign workers, tied to their current employer. Now that's changing.
Last year, the UAE cabinet also approved providing 10-year visas to foreigners with investments in the UAE of at least Dh10 million, if non-real estate assets account for at least 60 per cent of the total. Investors can bring their spouses and children into the country.
It also approved five-year residency to owners of UAE real estate worth at least 5 million dirhams.
The government also said that leading academics, medical doctors, scientists, engineers and star students would be eligible for similar long-term visas, without the need for financial investments in the country.
The first batch - 20 finalists for the Mohammed bin Rashid Medal for Scientific Distinction.- were awarded in January and more are expected to follow.
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
RESULTS
Argentina 4 Haiti 0
Peru 2 Scotland 0
Panama 0 Northern Ireland 0
Day 2, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Dinesh Chandimal has inherited a challenging job, after being made Sri Lanka’s Test captain. He responded in perfect fashion, with an easy-natured century against Pakistan. He brought up three figures with a majestic cover drive, which he just stood and admired.
Stat of the day – 33 It took 33 balls for Dilruwan Perera to get off the mark. His time on zero was eventful enough. The Sri Lankan No 7 was given out LBW twice, but managed to have both decisions overturned on review. The TV replays showed both times that he had inside edged the ball onto his pad.
The verdict In the two previous times these two sides have met in Abu Dhabi, the Tests have been drawn. The docile nature of proceedings so far makes that the likely outcome again this time, but both sides will be harbouring thoughts that they can force their way into a winning position.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 2
Rashford 28', Martial 72'
Watford 1
Doucoure 90'
Kill%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nikhil%20Nagesh%20Bhat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Lakshya%2C%20Tanya%20Maniktala%2C%20Ashish%20Vidyarthi%2C%20Harsh%20Chhaya%2C%20Raghav%20Juyal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
PSA DUBAI WORLD SERIES FINALS LINE-UP
Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)
Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)
SCORES IN BRIEF
Lahore Qalandars 186 for 4 in 19.4 overs
(Sohail 100,Phil Salt 37 not out, Bilal Irshad 30, Josh Poysden 2-26)
bt Yorkshire Vikings 184 for 5 in 20 overs
(Jonathan Tattersall 36, Harry Brook 37, Gary Ballance 33, Adam Lyth 32, Shaheen Afridi 2-36).
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours.
The package
Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Company profile
Company name: Dharma
Date started: 2018
Founders: Charaf El Mansouri, Nisma Benani, Leah Howe
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: TravelTech
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investors: Convivialite Ventures, BY Partners, Shorooq Partners, L& Ventures, Flat6Labs
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
MEFCC information
Tickets range from Dh110 for an advance single-day pass to Dh300 for a weekend pass at the door. VIP tickets have sold out. Visit www.mefcc.com to purchase tickets in advance.
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
