Will Iraq be held hostage again or will its political leaders put the country first?

Supporters of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani celebrate after the election. Reuters

Iraq’s election results are in – now we wait for the effective results. While ballot counting has ended and figures for how each electoral list has fared were announced on Wednesday night, political parties will now come together, each using the number of votes they won as leverage to try to get a piece of Iraq’s governing pie.

Iraq’s latest elections produced a surprising turnout of 56 per cent. Most voters had expressed a lack of interest in voting and popular Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr had encouraged his followers to boycott the election.

Some did stay away, and the highest proportions of voting have been recorded in Sunni-majority and Kurdish-majority provinces. Less of a surprise was Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani attracting the most votes.

Mr Al Sudani ran on a platform promising “reconstruction and development", the name of his electoral list. The primary concerns, besides addressing unemployment, which is at more than 30 per cent among young people, are the reconstruction of Iraq’s cities and developing the economy and society 22 years after the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

The coalition led by Mr Al Sudani received 1.317 million votes, according to preliminary results, but that alone is not enough to secure a majority to form a government. He must now look for allies to form a government with, while his adversaries try to undercut him and form their own majority.

The question for Iraq’s politicians is: Will Iraq again be held hostage to bargains between various groups to form a fragmented government, or will a government of majority, based on the top three winning lists, take office?

In the previous elections of 2021, Mr Al Sadr received 885,000 votes and was set to form a government but was scuppered by his allies uniting to undercut him. This led to his list’s parliamentarians walking out of Parliament and to a power-sharing government to be formed – led by Mr Al Sudani.

Today, Mr Al Sudani may also seek to form a government based on alliances with two or more primary lists.

Former speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi's Taqadum list and Erbil’s Masoud Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party are among those Mr Al Sudani can reach out to – to form a diverse government but not be handicapped by power-sharing agreements, which could mean each party gets one or two ministerial posts.

But given Iraq’s track record, where only one prime minister has been able to serve two terms – Nouri Al Maliki – Mr Al Sudani is not guaranteed a second term.

While Iran, the US, Turkey and Arab states will all be watching the interplay inside Iraq, it will ultimately be up to Iraqi officials to decide what type of government best serves the country – not only their interests.