Iraqis voted on Tuesday to elect a new parliament, the first step in a lengthy process of forming a government that will be watched closely by Iran and the US, the country's two main allies.
Preliminary results are expected the day after the poll, but the final result could be delayed for weeks by challenges to the outcome by candidates and parties. Once these have been settled, the Supreme Court will ratify the results, setting the stage for the newly elected parliament to convene and install a new government.
Despite deadlines for each stage of the process, it took a year for a government to be installed after the last election in October 2021.
Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq analyst at the Century Foundation think tank based in New York, said he expected that it would “take a while to certify the final results, probably until mid-January”, describing this period as “average”.
The new members of Parliament will be sworn two weeks after the results are ratified, with their first order of business being to elect the House speaker.
By law, Iraq's Parliament speaker should be a Sunni Arab, the president a Kurd, and the prime minister a Shiite.
The Parliament must elect a president by a two-thirds majority within 30 days of their first meeting. The president then has 15 days to appoint a prime minister, who will be nominated by the largest Shiite bloc. The prime minister has one month to form a government and present it to parliament for a vote of confidence.
These deadlines are frequently missed because of bickering among rival factions. Parties tend to delay votes, opting instead for intensive negotiations, which can impact not only parliamentary proceedings but also cause public unrest.
“The government formation is going to be a bit quicker this time,” Mr Jiyad said. “Some of these things take eight months or a year. I think this time around it'll be maybe only four or five months.
“Iraq does not want to have a vacuum for too long in terms of the absence of a formal government,” he said.
“I think we will see a similar government to the last one, a coalition backed by the two main Kurdish parties, the Sunni alliances and the main Shia parties as well.”
Outside influence
Iraq has for years sought to balance the competing interests of the US and Iran. This has become even more so in light of regional shifts triggered by Israel's war on Gaza, with new alliances forming and old powers weakening.
Iran enjoyed influence over its neighbour's internal affairs after the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003 by installing Shiite allies in Iraq's Parliament, as well as by supporting armed groups. But Tehran's regional clout has weakened after Israeli attacks inflicted heavy losses on regional proxies and on Iran itself in the two years since the Gaza war began.
Even as its influence wanes, Iran hopes to preserve its power in Iraq – the only close ally that stayed out of Israel's crosshairs during the war.
Pro-Iran factions that began targeting US forces over its support for Israel yielded to internal and American pressure and stopped their attacks early last year. Washington has been pressuring Baghdad to disarm these groups.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei drew a strong response from Baghdad after saying that Iraq’s elections were “a purely internal matter” and that US interventions are “undoubtedly harmful” in state affairs.
“Past experiences have shown that whenever the United States interfered in the affairs of regional countries, the result was damage to peace and stability,” he said in a statement.
“Whatever the results may be, the friendly relations between Iran and Iraq will continue,” he said, “Iraq is a large and capable country that knows well how to manage its relations with all parties.”
Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said it was “astonished” at the Iranian official's statement, which it considered “provocative and a clear and unacceptable interference in Iraq's internal affairs”.
Iraq’s election process “is purely a national matter and exclusively concerns the will of the Iraqi people and their constitutional institutions,” it said.
Munqith Dagher, an Iraqi military expert, said that although Iran had become a less powerful regional player since the last election, it would still try to influence the outcome again. Iraq's internal players would undoubtedly factor the Iran-US rivalry into their electoral calculations, he said.
“Many Iraqis prefer the United States over Iran as an economic and security partner, but perceived US political influence in the country is highly unpopular. Iraqis seek a balanced partnership with America based on mutual interests,” Mr Dagher said.
