The ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which never fully came into effect, is now hanging by a thread. Among the many casualties of renewed fighting, especially if it spirals back into full-blown warfare, will be the claims and credibility of US President Donald Trump.
Fighting never really ended between the two sides, with Israel, in particular, having continued military operations. Now major Israeli air strikes have killed more than 100 Palestinians, and they may be set to continue in coming days.
The Israeli attacks were apparently prompted, at least in part, by videos supposedly filmed by Israeli military drones that appear to show Hamas militants digging up and re-burying shrouded remains that Israel insists are the bodies of dead Israelis. The accusation is that Hamas fighters were re-burying the bodies in order to stage a fake recovery, with the remains deliberately left to be found by Red Cross workers.
The accusations are not implausible. A statement by the International Committee of the Red Cross condemning Hamas for “staging” a scene involving the remains of hostages strongly bolsters Israel’s accusations. And while Israel has continued to attack and kill Palestinians, albeit at a much lower rate, during the ceasefire, it’s disturbingly easy to imagine Hamas engaging in such macabre political stunts.
It’s difficult to parse the words and deeds of these two highly unreliable and non-credible actors. Both the Israeli government and Hamas have contributed heavily to the devastating Gaza war, and neither appear fully convinced that ending the conflict is preferable to carrying on the fighting.
A full-scale resumption of the war would be absolutely devastating for the long-suffering Palestinian population in Gaza. They have not yet been allowed the full resumption of humanitarian aid as Israel and Hamas squabble over issues such as the remains of dead Israeli hostages. The two warring parties have virtually taken the two million Palestinians in Gaza hostage to their self-serving warfare.
But the threat to the ceasefire is also terrible news for Mr Trump. Whether or not he realised it, when he presided over a ceasefire and, as he put it, “eternal peace” celebration at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt on October 18, he now owns not just the ceasefire but the Gaza war.
The downside of his exuberant boasting and demands for the Nobel Peace Prize is that, while he claimed and certainly deserves credit for having helped organise the desperately needed ceasefire, both the truce and a potential return to the war are now inexorably linked to him.
In US politics, Mr Trump is used to taking credit for everything and blame for nothing. Between his adoring base, terrified traditional Republicans, a largely deferential media and Democrats who continue to abide by genteel political traditions he has rendered utterly passe, the US President is rarely confronted with a dramatic failure that profoundly and directly undermines his domestic credibility and standing.
Diplomacy is far more unforgiving. On the global stage, there’s nowhere to hide when you’ve demanded full credit for something that is broadly welcomed and applauded, but it all goes pear-shaped.
Mr Trump is going to find that, if he doesn’t move quickly to restrain Israel and compel Hamas’s last remaining effective patrons, Turkey and Qatar, to similarly ensure their compliance with the ceasefire terms, he’s going to end up badly damaged by any return to all-out warfare in Gaza.
It’s been clear from the outset that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu engaged in the Gaza truce with the utmost reluctance. Israel came around only after Mr Trump effectively insisted that Mr Netanyahu agree to the deal once Hamas had accepted its terms.
For more than a year, the Israeli Prime Minister has been fending off pressure from his own military, which has been demanding an explanation of the strategic goals of the war when they believe there is nothing left in Gaza worth fighting over, and the Israeli public that largely wants the war to end. When Mr Trump added his own weight to the scale, especially after Israel’s reckless and inexcusable bombing attack on Qatar, Mr Netanyahu was effectively trapped.
But ever since the ceasefire was agreed, the Trump administration couldn’t miss the many clear signs that the Israeli leader has been looking for an excuse to resume fighting. Playing on Mr Netanyahu’s famous nickname, Israelis have been referring to this as “Bibi-sitting”.
Predictably enough, Hamas has apparently engaged in reckless provocations, including reportedly firing on Israeli troops in southern Gaza.
The US administration’s reaction to the renewed heavy Israeli bombardment and resumption of the wholesale killing of Palestinians in Gaza has been to dismiss these alarming developments as mere “skirmishes”. No doubt the White House is hoping that both sides pull back from the brink.
They may well do that. Hamas is under enormous pressure not to return to open warfare or to give Israel an excuse to do that. And Mr Netanyahu may not want to go into next year’s Israeli election as the man who refused to end what has become a highly unpopular war.
Now, Mr Trump will have to move forcefully and adroitly to ensure that the “eternal peace” he announced in mid-October doesn’t fall apart in early November.
He may regard Gaza as a distant and relatively unimportant conflict, compared, for example, to the war in Ukraine. But the Gaza ceasefire is the only truly significant diplomatic achievement he has secured in his second term. If the whole thing collapses after just a couple of tense weeks, it will be catastrophic for his international credibility and reputation.
Even if the ceasefire does hold, Mr Trump will find that his legacy is now inexorably bound up with the future of Gaza. He’s going to be dealing with this issue, perhaps intensively, for the remaining three years of his term. He cannot walk away from a collapse of the ceasefire and impotently watch the resumption of the Gaza war without severe damage to his political reputation.
Adages derive their longevity by conveying wisdom. “Be careful what you wish for” is a good example.
