While ambitious geopolitical proposals like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor wrestle with the realities of regional conflicts, a powerful economic artery is pulsating between India and the UAE.
This is a corridor born of an ever-rising exchange of business, people and ideas. What we have termed “the Delhi-Dubai corridor” is one of the world’s most exciting geoeconomic sites. This corridor is not only a busy trade route but also a juncture of economic opportunities, strategic convergence and transforming world powers.
On an economic level, the Delhi-Dubai route has emerged as one of the most vibrant channels of engagement in the 21st century. The bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed the mark of $83.7 billion in the 2023-24 financial year, a significant increase from 2020-21. This success is driven by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, signed in 2022, and a multitude of sectoral collaborations. This growth trajectory positions the UAE as India’s third-largest trading partner globally, while India has become the UAE’s second-largest trading partner. The target of $100 billion in non-oil trade by 2030, once seen as ambitious, now appears achievable.
Dubai is an attractive destination, both logistically – being centrally located as a hub for global trade – and as a global marketplace for Indian exports, including textiles and technology. This integration connects Indian commerce to international supply chains, leveraging the UAE’s role as a trade giant.
India became Dubai’s largest source of foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2024, contributing $3.05 billion – representing 21.5 per cent of the emirate’s total FDI inflow. This marks a five-fold increase from $589 million in the first quarter of 2023, propelling India from fifth to first position among Dubai’s FDI sources.
The UAE’s free zones are increasingly becoming a preferred launchpad for Indian enterprises looking to go global. The Jebel Ali Free Zone is home to more than 2,300 Indian companies – a 15 per cent year-on-year increase – and facilitates $6.9 billion in trade volume annually. The zone processed more than 4.1 million metric tonnes of goods in 2023, with a 28 per cent jump in new Indian company registrations. The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, for instance, saw more than 160 new Indian businesses join in the first half of 2024 alone, bringing the total number of Indian companies in that single free zone to nearly 3,900.
The strategic dimensions of this corridor are of equal interest. The two nations co-operate on the security of maritime routes, the fight against extremism and the formation of new regional frameworks, such as the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and the US). With India attempting to balance Chinese ascendancy and the Gulf countries diversifying their strategic relations, the Delhi-Dubai corridor provides both India and the UAE with bargaining power in broader geopolitical dealings.
The strength of this partnership is its capability to overcome volatility. Energy markets, which are frequently subject to geopolitical strains, directly connect the fate of India and the UAE. Shared vulnerabilities have been converted into greater co-ordination, where both economies are agile in moments of disruption.
Dubai, with a dynamism like that of other global cities such as Singapore or San Francisco, adds another layer, showing how infrastructure and global connectivity can supplement economic growth with social and cultural change. In addition to economic and strategic connections, the corridor has enriched people-to-people ties. The human and cultural capital flows between the two countries are as important as the trade exchanges, demonstrated by the presence of more than 3.5 million Indians in the UAE (who constitute the largest expatriate group).
The Delhi-Dubai corridor is also maintained through one of the highest volumes of human traffic between two countries. India represents the largest source of passenger traffic for the world’s busiest international hub, Dubai International Airport, with nearly 12 million passengers out of a total of 87 million in 2023. Delhi and Mumbai are among the long-standing top destinations for Dubai. This high-frequency traffic of talent, capital, labour and families is matched by collaboration in tourism, finance, education and technology, making the Delhi-Dubai corridor a channel not only for governments and businesses but also for societies and people.
The future points towards even closer co-operation. Green energy, space exploration and digital innovation are key frontier areas where India and the UAE can collaborate to produce solutions with global traction. India’s ambition to transform its energy profile, combined with the UAE leading by example on climate at Cop28, indicates how the partnership can underpin the global energy transition.
It is our considered argument that in terms of people-to-people integration, connectivity and future potential between two extremely rapidly growing but suitably diverse geographies, there is no match for the Delhi-Dubai corridor. And while a comparable corridor, between China and Vietnam, may have a higher trade volume, the combination of the UAE’s geostrategic central power, India’s high-growth-high-scale-high-diversity advantage, no historical baggage of strife (unlike the historically prickly relationship between China and Vietnam), and genuine cultural amalgamation makes the Dubai-Delhi corridor arguably the most exciting business and geoeconomic destination in the world.
Thus, the Delhi-Dubai corridor is no longer just a bridge of convenience; it is an artery of influence. In anchoring commerce to security, innovation to sustainability and regional to global agendas, it establishes a model of how regional affiliations can influence the future of globalisation. With a shift in power towards multipolarity, this strategic corridor will not only determine growth but also lead to a re-shaping of influence across Asia, the Middle East and beyond.
The authors are professors at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University in India
