With US prestige eroding, where do Europe, Russia and the Gulf states stand?

US President Donald Trump dances after speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference, in Maryland, US, last week. AP

US President Donald Trump in his fascination with his role as president of the world's most powerful country may have forgotten the importance of prestige, which has been a crucial factor for the country.

The consequences of losing prestige are profound. They affect not only American geopolitical interests but also embolden rivals in their strategic defiance, as Mr Trump seems to improvise policy, relying on exclusionary tools to reshape the global order, under the mantra of Make America Great Again.

The danger here is that Mr Trump is being serious even as some may find his tactics amusing. Ultimately, Trumpian bravado is steadily eroding American prestige, necessary to uphold US exceptionalism on the world stage. Now, Mr Trump faces resistance in his proposal for Gaza and US-Arab relations to Ukraine, Russia and the transatlantic ties, and even within America.

Mr Trump may deserve credit for his audacity in upending conventional thinking, forcing others to think outside the box. Indeed, the recent thaw in US-Russia relations could be said to have yielded some benefits, despite it having inflicted severe damage on US-European relations and Nato. His decision to hold high-level US-Russia meetings in Riyadh was a master stroke, sending multiple messages. One being that Riyadh is central to Washington’s strategy – a critical ally, not just regionally but globally.China’s role in brokering the 2023 Saudi-Iranian rapprochement initially alarmed US diplomats, who found themselves sidelined while Beijing took the lead. Realising the shift, Washington has since recalibrated, engaging Riyadh with a new-found seriousness.

Clearly, Mr Trump’s team has realised Riyadh is a crucial partner in regional affairs, while initially assuming that this partnership would translate into automatic Saudi alignment with US policies. However, Saudi Arabia’s rejection of Mr Trump's plans – particularly his disregard for the two-state solution and his efforts to undermine the establishment of a Palestinian state – may well have surprised Mr Trump. Furthermore, the Saudi and wider Arab rejection of Mr Trump’s ideas of displacing Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza threw cold water on his ambitions to control Gaza’s coastline.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) shakes hands with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during their meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18. SPA / AFP

The positions of several Gulf nations are already clear. Most probably, Egypt and Jordan will not escalate against Mr Trump’s provocations but will instead work to contain them. To be sure, these countries understand that Mr Trump’s aggression can be costly if he is cornered, so they will attempt to outmanoeuvre him with intelligence and wisdom – unlike perhaps past Arab diplomatic efforts that simply rejected and condemned policies without offering alternatives.

It is crucial to note, however, that Arab nations have not lacked initiative – far from it. Indeed, the Arab Peace Initiative, launched by Saudi Arabia in 2002, proposed a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: full Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories, the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the normalisation of relations between Arab states and Israel.

The mini summit in Riyadh on Friday, where Arab leaders met, set the stage for a unified Arab stance at the emergency Arab summit expected in Cairo on March 4. This will be a pivotal event for US-Arab relations, as well as for Gulf ties with Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinians – and even with Israel.

Riyadh looking forward to working with Trump, Saudi Crown Prince tells Rubio

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Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s international and diplomatic standing has been bolstered with gravitas and prestige by hosting US-Russia talks in Riyadh after years of diplomatic estrangement due to the Ukraine war. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has hinted that he wants Riyadh to become a serious hub for international dialogue. That is exactly what happened during the US-Russia discussions in Riyadh, in stark contrast to the provocations in statements by Mr Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and several European leaders.

So where does everyone stand and what is the current state of play?

Regarding US-Russia relations, there was a partial agreement to resume diplomatic ties and establish a consultation mechanism to manage tensions. Both sides agreed to assign high-level teams to start working towards a lasting resolution of the Ukraine war that is acceptable to all parties. The discussions also laid the groundwork for future geopolitical co-operation and economic opportunities that could emerge after the war.

However, these steps do not represent a major breakthrough, either in bilateral relations or regarding Ukraine, because many significant gaps remain. Mr Trump has reshuffled the deck with Russia but failed so far to achieve his primary goal: stopping the Ukraine war.

Mr Putin is reportedly not ready to meet Mr Trump as he is concerned about the pitfalls of a rushed agreement. For instance, an unofficial US draft document on Russia and Ukraine includes a clause stating that if Russia violates any peace deal, Ukraine would automatically join Nato, which is a red line for Mr Putin, who wants to prevent precisely that. One of their biggest disagreements, sources say, is over territory. Mr Trump seems willing to let Russia keep the lands it currently controls in Ukraine, while Mr Putin insists that the entire regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, along with Crimea, are recognised as "constitutionally" part of Russia.

Thus, the road to a US-Russia deal on Ukraine is not well paved. Even if a deal was reached, it would lack legitimacy as long as Europe and Ukraine reject it. In short, as long as the Ukraine war continues, US-Russia normalisation remains out of reach.Meanwhile, Mr Trump is furious with Mr Zelenskyy, who mocked him for falling into a Russian disinformation trap. In response, Mr Trump publicly rebuked Mr Zelenskyy, prompting his Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn that Mr Trump does not tolerate "ingratitude".

Mr Trump's disregard for Europe and its role in Ukraine initially caused confusion and disarray in Europe. This was soon followed, however, by a closing of ranks, and the US president found himself facing a unified European front – including Britain, a traditional US ally – just as Germany heads into elections that could determine the configuration of leadership of the European continent.

Yet, Europe understands that resisting Mr Trump will come at a cost. But it also knows that it cannot succumb to the dictates of a US president who is on the verge of dismantling the historical transatlantic alliance. Some are suggesting options for Europe that seem far-fetched, such as withdrawing from Nato, bypassing Mr Trump by engaging directly with Russia, or even aligning more closely with China. If anything, these ideas reflect the level of frustration with Mr Trump's unprecedented style of international relations and Europe's willingness to challenge it.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump wants the Arab states to give him Gaza and to hand the West Bank over to Israel. He believes he will get his way because Egypt and Jordan need his country’s support, and because US-Gulf security ties remain crucial, particularly given Iran’s clear commitment to its regional strategy and nuclear doctrine – something that would likely necessitate a military operation against Iran involving the US.

For its part, China is watching and preparing for Mr Trump’s economic war. However, it does not seem concerned about the possibility of Mr Trump pulling Russia away from its orbit, as it sees too many obstacles preventing an end to the war in Ukraine.The credibility Mr Trump once sought – and initially obtained – on the international stage is now under threat and increasingly fragile. The loss of prestige is not just damaging to Mr Trump personally, but also to the US presidency and to the US itself.