Why key European capitals will welcome Macron's appointment of Barnier

France is the ground zero of Europe’s approach to migration. The great challenge facing its new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, is to master this single fact. There are a number of issues underlining the dysfunction that French President Emmanuel Macron had faced in forming a government. The right is ascendant on the national political scene, yet it is a coalition of left-wing parties that has formed the single largest bloc in Parliament after the recent election. Issues of the economy have caused this chasm to open up in French politics. Elected in 2017 with the passion of a Roman god to send down lightning bolts to break up this political logjam, Mr Macron now finds himself in its trap. So he has turned to a smooth operator in Mr Barnier to find a way out. Known for his role in negotiating Brexit on behalf of the EU, Mr Barnier is a cunning political fox. He has reportedly decided to move forward with the tacit support of the far right so that he won’t be toppled by a majority of Parliament. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party has an incentive to provide tentative backing to Mr Barnier’s nomination and she has said she will let his team do its job, not seek to vote it down. That is support of the “sword of Damocles” variety – always ready to let the dagger drop. But it gives Mr Barnier and the French establishment a lifeline to reverse its political decline. Migration is the important priority, according to Mr Barnier in his first television interview since accepting the post. “There still is a feeling that our borders are sieves and that migration flows aren’t being controlled,” he told the broadcaster. “I don’t have much in common with the ideologies of the National Rally, but I respect it.” This chimes with something he once said about his own approach to politics, based on advice from his mother. “Michel, never be sectarian. Sectarianism is a sign of weakness,” she is said to have told her teenage son. Thus, a poll at the weekend found that almost half of Ms Le Pen’s RN supporters say they are “satisfied” with Mr Barnier’s nomination (48 per cent), and 56 per cent find that he “inspires confidence”. The thwarted candidates from the left now see Mr Barnier as a tool of the RN and warned of how Ms Le Pen’s legions can exploit the situation. “Today, we have a prime minister who is completely dependent on the RN,” said Lucie Castets, who was the prime ministerial nominee of the leftist alliance that came top in the July vote. Left-wing parties held big demonstrations over the weekend to protest at not getting their chance to hold the reins. In making the far right the kingmakers, Mr Macron has been accused by them of stealing the outcome of the election. And indeed, in his meetings so far, Mr Barnier has stuck to the core: meeting Mr Macron’s loyalist centrists and the Gaullists of his own conservative tradition. From his time as the Brexit negotiator, we know that Mr Barnier can hold a fixed idea of success and use all the resources at his command to deliver that objective. Tireless political efforts can be expected to unfold as he seeks to demonstrate his success this time, too. The borders that France needs to secure, if Mr Barnier hopes to succeed, are at the top of the political agenda across Europe. Not least there is the predicament of his old foes in London, where tens of thousands of people crossing the English Channel demonstrate the failure of the government to secure the borders. French officials share in this sense of failure, but so far Paris has not been willing to take on the bigger picture. The rise of the far right in Germany, confirmed in recent weeks by state legislative elections, has driven Berlin into new measures on quicker deportations. Next on the agenda are measures to deny asylum to people who were part of the 2015 mass migration from Syria and Iraq but are not yet full German citizens. One German official even raised the prospect of using the UK’s abandoned Rwanda scheme to stem the flow of people leaving Africa and trying to get into Europe. Italy has taken its own hardline migration stance since the election of its far-right Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. A Rwanda-style deportation deal with Albania won the government some breathing space. France has, until now, rebutted the UK’s pressure to do more by claiming that the latter is an “El Dorado” for migrants. Paris cites the lack of a UK identity card as a reason for the creation of a black market of employment that is luring people into Europe. Yet there is much that the French haven’t done to use their own identity card system to catch and deal with illegals both in its own cities and those bound for the UK. Compounding the sense of chaos, French police have increased trouble with clashes in towns on the Italian border and that facing the UK. Determined and effective action, with a new emphasis on reducing the migrant influx, would give Mr Barnier the space to govern. It would also come as a boost to those other governments that are battling the issue but have so far found that a lack of movement in Paris has created something of a black hole. That is precisely why Mr Barnier’s appointment can be expected to have Europe-wide repercussions.