Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
May 26, 2024
Key developments in recent days – all of them relating to the Middle East – will have led the Joe Biden administration to curse its luck, particularly given that the region’s shifting sands have the potential to sink the US President’s re-election chances in November.
In Iran, it was negotiating understandings with president Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian before their deaths in a helicopter crash.
In the Hague, Prosecutor Karim Khan requested the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas leaders.
And in Europe, Ireland, Norway and Spain recognised the Palestinian state, amid support from several countries on the continent for Mr Khan’s application – thereby revealing a fundamental rift in the West.
All of this affects what the Biden administration views to be a golden opportunity for a historic agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, hinging on Israel’s acceptance of the principle of establishing a Palestinian state.
So what surprises and pitfalls await the administration while it tries to navigate a domestic storm, not just with Congress but within the governing Democratic Party over various issues, including Israel’s war on Gaza?
Let’s start with Iran, where seasoned diplomat Brett McGurk, Mr Biden’s Middle East point man, was working towards understandings with key figures in Tehran. The talks were promising, as the two countries aimed to reach an agreement of some kind that would satisfy Iran’s desire for sanctions relief without its coveted nuclear programme being affected in any significant way.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets Tunisia's President Kais Saied, who was in Tehran for the funeral ceremony of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi. Reuters
Mr Khamenei meets Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, following the funeral ceremony for Mr Raisi. EPA
Mr Khamenei meets Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim. AFP
Mr Khamenei meets Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani. AP
Mr Khamenei performs prayer at the funeral ceremony in Tehran. Reuters
Tens of thousands of mourners attend the funeral ceremony for Mr Raisi in the capital. Reuters
Women hold posters of Mr Raisi. The president, foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other top officials were killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday. AFP
The funeral ceremony in Tehran was one of several across the country, before Mr Raisi's burial in the north-eastern city of Mashhad on Thursday. Reuters
Tens of thousands turned out in the capital for Mr Raisi's funeral ceremony on Wednesday. AFP
State TV broadcast footage of clerics, generals and other mourners weeping in Tehran. Reuters
Mourners hold up portraits of Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian in Tehran. EPA
Mourners in Enghelab Square in Tehran. EPA
Mourners with images of Mr Raisi. Mr Khamenei led funeral prayers at Tehran University. AFP
The funeral was attended by foreign dignitaries and representatives of Iran-backed militant groups from across the region. Reuters
Tunisian President Kais Saied pays his respects. Photo: @TnPresidency / X
Sheikh Tamim offers his condolences to Iran's interim president Mohammad Mokhber. Photo: @IMO_Qatar / X
The Omani delegation conveys Sultan Haitham’s condolences to Mr Mokhber. Photo: Oman News Agency
Contrary to Biden’s desire for a grand bargain, Saudi officials view their talks with Washington as bilateral rather than trilateral
In return, the Iranian regime would conceivably have committed to restraining the Houthis in the Red Sea and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria to prevent the war in Gaza from escalating further into a full-blown regional conflict. Additionally, Tehran was urged not to disrupt the two-state solution, even if Israel’s version of it is not at the desired level.
Mr McGurk also sought to ensure that Iran would not disrupt the defence agreement that the US is negotiating with Saudi Arabia. Indeed, Tehran has a history of undermining US security or defence relations with Arab states.
The deaths of Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian will affect the timeline of the Biden team’s ambitions. Iranian diplomacy won’t be able to move forward, for now, with internal stability being the absolute priority at this juncture. This won’t suit Mr Biden’s interests.
Also inconvenient for the US President is Mr Khan’s request for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, inviting threats against the Prosecutor from some members of the US Congress and efforts within the Biden administration to counter his move.
What has angered both Israel and the US is that the ICC has effectively placed Israeli officials in the same category as Hamas leaders, accusing both sides of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Some Palestinian parties are also angered, given that the Court has equated the oppressor with the oppressed, arguing that Hamas’s attacks on October 7 were a form of resistance against Israeli occupation.
The double standards are evident in both camps, as they both seem to ignore their duty to protect civilians during war and not use them as cover.
US threats against the ICC are a disgrace, especially after several of its legislators had praised the Court’s decision to issue a warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes in the war in Ukraine.
If the ICC does issue arrest warrants against the Israeli and Hamas leaders, the European countries that are parties to the Rome Statute will be obligated to arrest Mr Netanyahu, Mr Gallant, and anyone else indicted for the alleged crimes if they were to visit them. It also won’t be easy for countries such as Qatar, Turkey and Iran to continue providing a safe haven for individuals linked to Hamas. Indeed, the ICC won’t differentiate between warrants for Israeli and Hamas officials.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, left, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be in trouble with the International Criminal Court. AFP
To recall, it is the accession of the state of Palestine to the ICC that has empowered Mr Khan. One of the benefits of Palestine’s ICC membership is holding Israel, as an occupier, accountable for its actions.
Broad European support for Mr Khan’s request, particularly as this coincided with key European countries recognising Palestine, has caused hysteria among Israeli authorities. Yet it must be noted that Mr Netanyahu has already turned it into political ammunition for himself within Israel, before the US Congress and against the Biden administration.
He has mobilised nationalist sentiment behind him and Mr Gallant by portraying the request as an indictment of the Israeli military establishment.
The Israeli Prime Minister is now heading to Washington to address Congress as a victim. Ironically, Mr Biden has frequently spoken of the Netanyahu government’s violations against Palestinian civilians, yet he only managed half-measures in his attempt to prevent Israel’s incursion into Rafah. The fear now is that Mr Netanyahu will be emboldened by American support to double down in Gaza.
What will the Europeans do? It is crucial for them to implement arrest warrants for Israeli officials if the Court issues them. Meanwhile, the recognition of the Palestinian state is not merely symbolic but also beneficial even for the Biden administration, since the latter agrees to a two-state solution.
However, none of this will matter as long as none of the western governments are prepared to impose sanctions on Israel to hold it accountable for obstructing the two-state solution.
Faced with Israel’s total obstruction of its efforts, the Biden administration wavers between complaining and acknowledging its impotence, especially in an election year. Thus, it invariably ends up bowing to Israeli demands, bearing the costs and consequences of its actions.
Arab countries are well aware of the weaknesses in US proposals, the fragility of Biden administration’s promises and the fantastical thinking behind their grand bargain ambitions. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has made its position clear with pragmatism and openness.
Primarily, since Israel is adamantly against the establishment of a Palestinian state, Riyadh’s message to it and the Biden administration is clear: no Palestinian state, no diplomatic relations with Israel. Contrary to Mr Biden’s desire for a grand bargain, Saudi officials view their talks with Washington on the defence agreement and peaceful nuclear co-operation as bilateral rather than trilateral.
Whether the multiple setbacks to Mr Biden end up costing him at the ballot box remains to be seen. But they will certainly add to the pressure already on the President’s political ambitions.
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How to apply for a drone permit
Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
Submit their request
What are the regulations?
Fly it within visual line of sight
Never over populated areas
Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
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Torbal Rayeh Wa Jayeh
Starring: Ali El Ghoureir, Khalil El Roumeithy, Mostafa Abo Seria
Stars: 3
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”
Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
