Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
May 26, 2024
Key developments in recent days – all of them relating to the Middle East – will have led the Joe Biden administration to curse its luck, particularly given that the region’s shifting sands have the potential to sink the US President’s re-election chances in November.
In Iran, it was negotiating understandings with president Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian before their deaths in a helicopter crash.
In the Hague, Prosecutor Karim Khan requested the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas leaders.
And in Europe, Ireland, Norway and Spain recognised the Palestinian state, amid support from several countries on the continent for Mr Khan’s application – thereby revealing a fundamental rift in the West.
All of this affects what the Biden administration views to be a golden opportunity for a historic agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, hinging on Israel’s acceptance of the principle of establishing a Palestinian state.
So what surprises and pitfalls await the administration while it tries to navigate a domestic storm, not just with Congress but within the governing Democratic Party over various issues, including Israel’s war on Gaza?
Let’s start with Iran, where seasoned diplomat Brett McGurk, Mr Biden’s Middle East point man, was working towards understandings with key figures in Tehran. The talks were promising, as the two countries aimed to reach an agreement of some kind that would satisfy Iran’s desire for sanctions relief without its coveted nuclear programme being affected in any significant way.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets Tunisia's President Kais Saied, who was in Tehran for the funeral ceremony of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi. Reuters
Mr Khamenei meets Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, following the funeral ceremony for Mr Raisi. EPA
Mr Khamenei meets Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim. AFP
Mr Khamenei meets Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani. AP
Mr Khamenei performs prayer at the funeral ceremony in Tehran. Reuters
Tens of thousands of mourners attend the funeral ceremony for Mr Raisi in the capital. Reuters
Women hold posters of Mr Raisi. The president, foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other top officials were killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday. AFP
The funeral ceremony in Tehran was one of several across the country, before Mr Raisi's burial in the north-eastern city of Mashhad on Thursday. Reuters
Tens of thousands turned out in the capital for Mr Raisi's funeral ceremony on Wednesday. AFP
State TV broadcast footage of clerics, generals and other mourners weeping in Tehran. Reuters
Mourners hold up portraits of Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian in Tehran. EPA
Mourners in Enghelab Square in Tehran. EPA
Mourners with images of Mr Raisi. Mr Khamenei led funeral prayers at Tehran University. AFP
The funeral was attended by foreign dignitaries and representatives of Iran-backed militant groups from across the region. Reuters
Tunisian President Kais Saied pays his respects. Photo: @TnPresidency / X
Sheikh Tamim offers his condolences to Iran's interim president Mohammad Mokhber. Photo: @IMO_Qatar / X
The Omani delegation conveys Sultan Haitham’s condolences to Mr Mokhber. Photo: Oman News Agency
Contrary to Biden’s desire for a grand bargain, Saudi officials view their talks with Washington as bilateral rather than trilateral
In return, the Iranian regime would conceivably have committed to restraining the Houthis in the Red Sea and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria to prevent the war in Gaza from escalating further into a full-blown regional conflict. Additionally, Tehran was urged not to disrupt the two-state solution, even if Israel’s version of it is not at the desired level.
Mr McGurk also sought to ensure that Iran would not disrupt the defence agreement that the US is negotiating with Saudi Arabia. Indeed, Tehran has a history of undermining US security or defence relations with Arab states.
The deaths of Mr Raisi and Mr Amirabdollahian will affect the timeline of the Biden team’s ambitions. Iranian diplomacy won’t be able to move forward, for now, with internal stability being the absolute priority at this juncture. This won’t suit Mr Biden’s interests.
Also inconvenient for the US President is Mr Khan’s request for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, inviting threats against the Prosecutor from some members of the US Congress and efforts within the Biden administration to counter his move.
What has angered both Israel and the US is that the ICC has effectively placed Israeli officials in the same category as Hamas leaders, accusing both sides of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Some Palestinian parties are also angered, given that the Court has equated the oppressor with the oppressed, arguing that Hamas’s attacks on October 7 were a form of resistance against Israeli occupation.
The double standards are evident in both camps, as they both seem to ignore their duty to protect civilians during war and not use them as cover.
US threats against the ICC are a disgrace, especially after several of its legislators had praised the Court’s decision to issue a warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes in the war in Ukraine.
If the ICC does issue arrest warrants against the Israeli and Hamas leaders, the European countries that are parties to the Rome Statute will be obligated to arrest Mr Netanyahu, Mr Gallant, and anyone else indicted for the alleged crimes if they were to visit them. It also won’t be easy for countries such as Qatar, Turkey and Iran to continue providing a safe haven for individuals linked to Hamas. Indeed, the ICC won’t differentiate between warrants for Israeli and Hamas officials.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, left, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be in trouble with the International Criminal Court. AFP
To recall, it is the accession of the state of Palestine to the ICC that has empowered Mr Khan. One of the benefits of Palestine’s ICC membership is holding Israel, as an occupier, accountable for its actions.
Broad European support for Mr Khan’s request, particularly as this coincided with key European countries recognising Palestine, has caused hysteria among Israeli authorities. Yet it must be noted that Mr Netanyahu has already turned it into political ammunition for himself within Israel, before the US Congress and against the Biden administration.
He has mobilised nationalist sentiment behind him and Mr Gallant by portraying the request as an indictment of the Israeli military establishment.
The Israeli Prime Minister is now heading to Washington to address Congress as a victim. Ironically, Mr Biden has frequently spoken of the Netanyahu government’s violations against Palestinian civilians, yet he only managed half-measures in his attempt to prevent Israel’s incursion into Rafah. The fear now is that Mr Netanyahu will be emboldened by American support to double down in Gaza.
What will the Europeans do? It is crucial for them to implement arrest warrants for Israeli officials if the Court issues them. Meanwhile, the recognition of the Palestinian state is not merely symbolic but also beneficial even for the Biden administration, since the latter agrees to a two-state solution.
However, none of this will matter as long as none of the western governments are prepared to impose sanctions on Israel to hold it accountable for obstructing the two-state solution.
Faced with Israel’s total obstruction of its efforts, the Biden administration wavers between complaining and acknowledging its impotence, especially in an election year. Thus, it invariably ends up bowing to Israeli demands, bearing the costs and consequences of its actions.
Arab countries are well aware of the weaknesses in US proposals, the fragility of Biden administration’s promises and the fantastical thinking behind their grand bargain ambitions. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has made its position clear with pragmatism and openness.
Primarily, since Israel is adamantly against the establishment of a Palestinian state, Riyadh’s message to it and the Biden administration is clear: no Palestinian state, no diplomatic relations with Israel. Contrary to Mr Biden’s desire for a grand bargain, Saudi officials view their talks with Washington on the defence agreement and peaceful nuclear co-operation as bilateral rather than trilateral.
Whether the multiple setbacks to Mr Biden end up costing him at the ballot box remains to be seen. But they will certainly add to the pressure already on the President’s political ambitions.
Be honest and transparent: It is always better to own up than be found out. Tell your partner everything they want to know. Show remorse. Inform them of the extent of the situation so they know what they are dealing with.
Work on yourself: Be honest with yourself and your partner and figure out why you did it. Don’t be ashamed to ask for professional help.
Give it time: Like any breach of trust, it requires time to rebuild. So be consistent, communicate often and be patient with your partner and yourself.
Discuss your financial situation regularly: Ensure your spouse is involved in financial matters and decisions. Your ability to consistently follow through with what you say you are going to do when it comes to money can make all the difference in your partner’s willingness to trust you again.
Work on a plan to resolve the problem together: If there is a lot of debt, for example, create a budget and financial plan together and ensure your partner is fully informed, involved and supported.
Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Cryopreservation: A timeline
Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
Ovarian tissue surgically removed
Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
THE DETAILS
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Director: Ron Howard
2/5
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
FA Cup fifth round draw
Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
FIXTURES (all times UAE)
Sunday
Brescia v Lazio (3.30pm)
SPAL v Verona (6pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (9pm)
AS Roma v Torino (11.45pm)
Monday
Bologna v Fiorentina (3.30pm)
AC Milan v Sampdoria (6pm)
Juventus v Cagliari (6pm)
Atalanta v Parma (6pm)
Lecce v Udinese (9pm)
Napoli v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
