Bashar Al Assad has done everything to undermine agreement on a Syrian political transition as outlined by the Geneva framework. Sasha Mordovets / Getty Images
Bashar Al Assad has done everything to undermine agreement on a Syrian political transition as outlined by the Geneva framework. Sasha Mordovets / Getty Images

Assad’s future is linked to fears of fragmentation



With the ceasefire in Syria being violated routinely and the peace negotiations in Geneva seemingly on life support, many observers are beginning to wonder what will happen if the political options in Syria close, as seems increasingly likely.

In early March, the United States secretary of state, John Kerry, offered his vision of what might happen if the ceasefire in Syria was not respected by Bashar Al Assad’s regime. Mr Kerry told the Senate foreign relations committee: “It may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if we wait much longer.”

Mr Al Assad has done everything to undermine agreement on a Syrian political transition as outlined by the Geneva framework. That includes telling his negotiation team not to discuss a transition, organising parliamentary elections to consolidate his position and bombarding the opposition to wreck the truce.

Assuming Mr Al Assad succeeds, then what? While no one wants to be accused of sanctioning Syria’s partition, Mr Kerry’s remarks recognised reality. Unless talks to end hostilities are successful, Syria is likely to fragment further, as rival forces consolidate their hold over their own territories.

Perhaps that’s Mr Al Assad’s aim. He has always made clear that, for him, the desirable endgame in Syria is to take back all the areas his regime lost. That may seem fanciful given the serious manpower problems his army is facing, but Mr Al Assad’s thinking may not be as outlandish as all that.

His calculation could be that as rebel factions strengthen themselves in their own territories, they will fragment further and develop into armed gangs, each protecting their area and the financial interests coming with it. With time, displeasure with such groups will grow and the regime – or at least the state – will be regarded as the lesser of two evils.

At the same time, Mr Al Assad can see that the regional environment is changing. Who can say that the Arab consensus on Syria that existed in 2011 still exists? Most of Syria’s neighbours – Iraq, Jordan and, to an extent, Lebanon – are not on the same wavelength as Turkey and the Gulf states over the Syrian conflict. These countries may not care for Mr Al Assad, but are wary of what might happen were he to fall.

Indeed, a recent report on a Syrian pro-opposition website suggested that Saudi Arabia believes Jordan was involved in the assassination of the leader of the Army of Islam, Zahran Alloush, in December. Mr Alloush was killed in a Russian air strike, and there is suspicion that information on him was passed on to the Russians by Amman.

While the report could be bogus, it would not be the first time an Arab ally of the Saudis has been accused of playing both sides in Syria. Last August there were reports that Egyptian rockets had been sent to the Syrian army, and were used in its bombardment of the rebel-held town of Zabadani.

It’s difficult to determine whether such stories are true. However, one can argue that, for domestic reasons, Amman and Cairo have an interest in preventing extremists, whether ISIL or Jabhat Al Nusra, from gaining in Syria.

That incentive will only increase as the Geneva process falters. The most telling moment reflecting the limits of the talks came when the UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, proposed that Mr Al Assad remain president during a transitional phase, though surrounded by three deputies named by the opposition. When this was rejected, the envoy insisted the idea was not his.

In other words, a process built around a transition away from Mr Al Assad would be replaced by a mechanism to circumvent such an outcome, albeit momentarily. Yet the Syrian regime has often shown that nothing is as permanent as the momentary.

Mr Al Assad can take solace in the fact that neither Russia nor anybody else can push for his removal from office. That’s because the president’s allies don’t quite know how to do it without risking bringing the whole state edifice down. As for many of Mr Al Assad’s enemies, their focus on ISIL has made them unwilling to do any­thing to destabilise him.

So Mr Al Assad may have a point. As the situation in Syria putrefies further, the impetus on all sides may shift towards implicit support for a return of the Syrian state. The president makes people gag, but presented only with bad options they may come around to looking the other way on his crimes.

Certainly Mr Al Assad’s efforts to retain control over the networks of the state and not abandon even distant outposts such as Deir Ezzor and Qamishli suggest he is thinking along those lines. His survival will come, if it comes, only if he continues to be identified with the state and its apparatus.

The Syrian leader may be delusional, but until now his manoeuvres have prevented any replacement. Geneva has failed to weaken him and many countries in the region are adapting. Between chaotic fragmentation in Syria and Mr Al Assad, they may gradually come to prefer the Syrian president.

Michael Young is a writer and editor in Beirut

On Twitter: @BeirutCalling

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

FORSPOKEN
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
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Starfield
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THE BIO

Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13 

Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier

Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife 

What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents. 

Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.

Three tips from La Perle's performers

1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.

2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.

3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Ford Mustang GT

Price, base / as tested: Dh204,750 / Dh241,500
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque: 569Nm @ 4,600rpm​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Fuel economy, combined: 10.3L / 100km

ESSENTIALS

The flights 
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
 

The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.

Moon Music

Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home. 

Cricket World Cup League 2

UAE squad

Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind

Fixtures

Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Batti Gul Meter Chalu

Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Name: Brendalle Belaza

From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines

Arrived in the UAE: 2007

Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus

Favourite photography style: Street photography

Favourite book: Harry Potter

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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'The worst thing you can eat'

Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.

Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines: 

Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.

Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.

Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.

Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.

Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.

INFO

What: DP World Tour Championship
When: November 21-24
Where: Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae.

Joker: Folie a Deux

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson

Director: Todd Phillips 

Rating: 2/5

Tu%20Jhoothi%20Main%20Makkaar%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELuv%20Ranjan%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERanbir%20Kapoor%2C%20Shraddha%20Kapoor%2C%20Anubhav%20Singh%20Bassi%20and%20Dimple%20Kapadia%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

The Transfiguration

Director: Michael O’Shea

Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine

Three stars

FIXTURES

UAE’s remaining fixtures in World Cup qualification R2
Oct 8: Malaysia (h)
Oct 13: Indonesia (a)
Nov 12: Thailand (h)
Nov 17: Vietnam (h)
 

THE POPE'S ITINERARY

Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport


Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial


Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

RACE CARD

6.30pm: Baniyas Group 2 (PA) Dh 97,500 (Dirt) 1,400m.

7.05pm Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,200m

7.40pm Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,400m

8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,400m

8.50pm Rated Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,600m

9.25pm Handicap (TB) Dh 95,000 (D) 1,200m

10pm Handicap (TB) Dh 85,000 (D) 2,000m