Analysts are still working to understand Zohran Mamdani’s decisive victory in last month’s New York mayoral race. Like the blind men in the old Indian story of The Blind Men and the Elephant, the explanations offered have been mostly accurate but incomplete.
Mr Mamdani’s focus on affordability was clearly appealing, as was his compelling affability on display in clever and incisive social media posts. The fact that he was constantly on the move, meeting and engaging voters where they were, was also a factor in his favour. It communicated his authentic desire to know voters and have them know him.
In the stale consultant-driven political environment in which Americans find themselves, Mr Mamdani was a breath of fresh air. With his opponents spending tens of millions on negative attack ads, Mr Mamdani’s approach was new and exciting. Despite running against the well-funded campaign of a former governor and much of the New York Democratic Party establishment that saw him as a threat to their hegemony, he not only prevailed but also won more votes than any previous mayoral candidate in the city’s history.
Three other factors were also decisive in shaping the outcome.
The first is the changing demographics of New York City. In 1980, more than half of the city’s population was white. Today it is less than one third white. In 1980, 1,400,000 New Yorkers were Hispanic. Today they number two and a half million. During this same period, New York’s black population remained fairly stable at about 1,700,000, though more than one third of today’s black population are immigrants or the descendants of recent immigrants from African or Caribbean countries. One of the biggest shifts has been the dramatic growth of New York’s population of Asian descent. They have grown from a few hundred thousand to 1,400,000.
These changing demographics in favour of newer immigrant communities resulted in substantial shifts in the composition of the electorate, and it mattered in this election. Mr Mamdani easily won among Asian, Hispanic and black voters. But it’s important to note that he almost evenly split the white vote with his main opponent. Performing that well among all demographic groups is unusual in New York politics.
Another critically important factor in Mr Mamdani’s win was the role an empowered grassroots movement played. The political group that powered his victory was the Democratic Socialists of America. With thousands of organisers throughout New York City, they had already accounted for a number of upset wins during this past decade.
The first was in 2018, when upstart Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated Congressman Joseph Crowley. At the time of his defeat, Mr Crowley was the chair of the Queens County Democratic Party and vice chair of the Democratic Caucus in Congress. In many ways, Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s win presaged Mr Mamdani’s. Mr Crowley had the support of the establishment and far more money than his unknown insurgent opponent, but the party apparatus he headed had grown lazy and stale. She had a grassroots movement that out-organised the establishment.
In the years that followed, DSA activists won a number of elections for state and local posts across the city (including Mr Mamdani’s 2021 election to the New York State Assembly). They showed that an organisation of energised grassroots activists can defeat the establishment and their money.
A final factor that played a critical role in Mr Mamdani’s victory was the impact of Israel’s war on Gaza on the electorate in general, and specifically on the Jewish community in New York City.
For decades, the accepted political wisdom was that because of the size of the Jewish community in New York City, a political candidate who wanted to win there had to pay homage to Israel. It was assumed that the Jewish community was in lockstep with Israel and that those who wanted their votes or support should act accordingly. This not only silenced any reasoned discussion of the Middle East, but also had a devastating impact on the ability of Arab Americans and, especially after 9/11, American Muslims to freely participate in the city’s political life.
One example stands out. In 1988, Jesse Jackson’s presidential bid became the first to welcome the Arab community into a presidential campaign. The New York rally and fundraiser Arab Americans organised for Mr Jackson was one of his most successful events. When, the following year, one of his New York co-chairs announced that he would run for mayor, the Arab community was ready to play a part.
Early in the year, I was called to New York by the candidate and his campaign manager. They told me that the city’s Jewish establishment was upset by the role Arabs had played in Mr Jackson’s effort and by his embrace of Palestinian rights. They told me: “Tell your people we don’t want their support. If the Arabs give us a thousand dollars, the Jewish community will raise one hundred thousand to defeat us. Keep them away.”
I left the meeting shocked and upset and went to prominent Jewish writers I knew at The Washington Post, The New York Times and The Village Voice and told them what had happened. They wrote scathing attacks on this bigoted exclusion. But, fear still won, and the exclusion continued.
Given this context, it becomes clear what an enormous difference was in evidence in this year’s New York election. The impact of Israel’s war on Gaza transformed politics. Support for Palestinians and criticism of Israel’s policies have become mainstream issues. Arabs and Muslims are welcomed. At the same time, this election shattered the myth of a monolithic Jewish vote. Despite the hysterical anti-Mamdani reaction of the Jewish establishment (more than one leader referred to him as “the enemy of the Jewish community”), the majority of young Jews supported Mr Mamdani, along with more than one third of all Jewish voters.
These factors together demonstrate how New York City has changed, the city’s Democratic Party is changing and the Arab American, American Muslim and American Jewish communities are changing – all for the better. The bottom line: it’s not your daddy’s New York anymore.
