Michigan, the swing state the President Donald Trump won twice and home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the US, is once again at the centre of the country's politics.
On Tuesday, Democrats are to hold a primary that will test the direction of the party after its 2024 presidential election defeat and show how its internal debate over Gaza, Israel and US foreign policy is translating into electoral politics.
The Senate contest is between Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive, pro-Palestinian former Detroit health official, and Haley Stevens, a pro-Israel Democrat and four-term congresswoman who has the backing of much of the party establishment.
Analysts say the Democratic primary offers a snapshot of a broader debate within the party over how to win back voters after Kamala Harris lost to President Donald Trump in the 2024 election and Republicans swept to power in Congress.
“It’s the quintessential purple state,” Democratic strategist Jim Manley said, referring to the blend of party colours, red for Republicans and blue for Democrats. It shows the "need to appeal to white working-class voters, while also reaching out to the large Arab and Muslim populations in Dearborn".
Mr Manley, echoing a sentiment from the party's establishment leaders, said he was sceptical that Mr El-Sayed would be best positioned to win a general election if he secured the Democratic nomination.
“What happens in New York doesn’t necessarily get replicated across the country,” he said, referring to the mayoral victory of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City. “There’s obviously a demand for change, but the question is whether some of the democratic socialist policies are too extreme for voters.”
Mr El-Sayed, an Egyptian-American physician, has campaigned to introduce universal health care and abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, or ICE. He has also, in contrast with many politicians, openly called Israel’s war in Gaza a genocide. If he wins, he would become the first Muslim US senator.
Ms Stevens has focused her campaign on lowering drug and consumer costs and increasing manufacturing jobs in Michigan, a state deeply tied to the car industry. She also supports US military support for Israel and calls herself a "proud pro-Israel Democrat".
Whoever wins the nomination will face Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 Senate election.
Israel divides Democrats
Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington will also hold primary contests on August 4, but Michigan has an open Senate seat after Democrat Gary Peters announced his retirement.
Positions on Israel have become a major dividing line during the campaign. “In the United States Congress, I will continue to fight for the people of Israel,” Ms Stevens said at a Hanukkah celebration in 2023. “Israel comes to me in my dreams. I see Israel’s future.”
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, and its affiliated groups have spent about $30 million backing Ms Stevens, AP reported. That makes the race the organisation’s largest single investment in a single contest.
Outside groups have spent nearly $50 million supporting her candidacy and attacking her opponent.
Mr El-Sayed has made AIPAC's support for Ms Stevens a focal point of his campaign, portraying it as a battle between grassroots support and outside funding.
“I believe that we should not be fighting stupid wars that AIPAC wants us to fight in the first place and I believe we have a responsibility to keep our money here to invest here,” Mr El-Sayed said during a televised debate with Ms Stevens last week, referring to the US conflict with Iran, launched alongside Israel in February. “That really is the difference. We’re being outspent in this race, 12 to one.”
The scale of funding shines a spotlight on the growing political sensitivity towards Israel within the Democratic Party, particularly in Michigan, home to a sizeable Arab-American community, dozens of whom lost relatives and homes in Israeli attacks on Lebanon and in Gaza.
Mr Manley said Democrats’ traditional backing of Israel had been severely eroded by the wars in the Middle East and he described AIPAC as “radioactive”.
“The Democrats’ once strong support for Israel has been left in tatters,” he added. “The support that Israel enjoyed among most Democratic voters is gone, probably never to be repaired.”
Hussein Dabajeh, a Dearborn resident who owns a billboard company, said the scale of spending in the race may be counterproductive. “Stevens’s ad sometimes comes on twice in the same commercial break,” said Mr Dabajeh, who lost 10 relatives to Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. “People are looking at this and say, 'OK, this is way too much.' It starts to annoy people.”
Mr El-Sayed had been able to generate attention and support through social media videos that appear genuine, rather than relying on old-fashioned paid advertising, Mr Dabajeh added.
Michigan has a diverse population that includes white rural and urban Americans, black Americans and smaller Jewish and Hispanic communities.
Arab Americans in Michigan have historically voted Democrat but, particularly in the 2024 presidential election, have drifted towards third-party candidates, as well as to Republicans, driven by anger over US support for Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as cultural and gender issues.
Establishment leaders have said Ms Stevens's more moderate views mean she will be a stronger candidate to take on a Republican in November, making her more "electable".
She has presented herself as the more experienced and pragmatic candidate and has said that she understands what makes Michigan "tick".
“We don’t need a celebrity candidate, we don’t need a celebrity senator,” she said during the final debate. “We need somebody who is committed to six years of hard, unglamorous work.”
Mr El-Sayed said that argument was a reference to his background and religion rather than his politics. He has also rejected the idea that his identity is an electoral liability, instead presenting his faith as part of what informs his politics.
“When they raise questions about my ‘electability', they are usually pointing to the most obvious thing about me that makes me ‘different’ – that’s my name and my Muslim faith,” he wrote in a campaign email in July. “Faith, to me, isn’t just about an identity. It’s about the choices that I make every single day about how I live my life.”
November stakes
The US midterm elections will be held on November 3, when voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 members, as well as governors and state and local officials across the country.
Republicans are defending 22 Senate seats, while Democrats are defending 13. Democrats need to gain an additional four seats to take control of the chamber.
The results will be critical for Mr Trump, because it will decide his administration’s ability to advance its legislative agenda during the final two years of his term. The elections will also serve as a major referendum on the President, whose approval rating has remained deeply underwater nationally, with recent polls putting it in the low 30s.
In Michigan, in the final days of the race, Mr El-Sayed appears to have gained significant momentum. An Emerson College poll in late July found Mr El-Sayed leading Ms Stevens by 54 per cent to 39 per cent among likely Democratic primary voters, with 6 per cent of those polled undecided.
The result represents a dramatic shift from polling earlier that month, which showed Ms Stevens leading Mr El-Sayed by 48 per cent to 41 per cent.
Ms Stevens has the backing of Mr Peters, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Meanwhile, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed Mr El-Sayed. In recent days, he has also won the endorsement of the powerful United Auto Workers union.
Mustapha Hammoud, a Dearborn City Council member and supporter of Mr El-Sayed, said the political mood in Michigan had shifted against the influence of wealthy donors and special interests. Democratic voters increasingly want the party to focus on issues that directly affect their lives, particularly the high cost of living, rather than funding wars abroad, Mr Hammoud said.
“I’m about to start a family and I’m anxious,” he added. “You either have to shift and actually start making substantive differences in the lives of people, or you’re going to get more and more of these candidates who are going to come in and bring in a completely different energy."
