When US President Donald Trump posted an AI-generated vision of Gaza as a skyscraper-studded playground in February 2025, it sparked criticism in the Arab world and beyond. Fast forward to present-day Gaza and that conception of the Palestinian territory – as outlandish as it was – seems as far-fetched as ever.
This week, the US-led Board of Peace retreated from its Gaza reconstruction ambitions, instead floating a smaller housing plan to set up portable cabins for displaced Palestinians near Rafah. According to sources speaking to The National, even this revised plan is not expected to take shape until later this year, most likely after Israel's general election in October. This dilutes the initial optimism and goodwill that greeted the Board’s potential for driving real recovery.
The more than 1,000 Palestinian deaths since the October 2025 ceasefire with Israel question whether a truce exists at all. An Israeli air strike yesterday killed a family of six in Gaza city and set their home ablaze, health officials have said. Last Friday, an Israeli air strike killed a Palestinian in Gaza before a second bombing killed eight mourners at the subsequent funeral procession in Nuseirat refugee camps hours later.
Amid this chaos, Hamas’s choice of a new leader this week reveals a group still wedded to militarism. Khalil Al Hayya, who has lost dozens of family members to Israeli attacks and holds extreme views, is in the mould of former commander Yahya Sinwar. Such developments are a stark illustration of what can happen when ceasefires exist without credible rules, enforcement or accountability.
Taken together, these trends risk entrenching a cycle that has defined Gaza for decades – retaliation followed by uneasy calm, then renewed violence. Each stage of this cycle further erodes the space for diplomacy. Even modest efforts to alleviate humanitarian suffering have been frustrated by political calculations and obstruction.
Worryingly, the implications reach beyond the area of occupied Palestine. From Yemen to the Strait of Hormuz and southern Lebanon, the rules that once underpinned a degree of predictability are being bent or broken. Ceasefires are announced but patchily enforced and red lines are openly crossed. Uncertainty is becoming the norm, and the costs of miscalculation grows steadily higher.
Short-term fixes may buy time and even save lives, but they do not build lasting peace. In Gaza, the absence of enforceable rules has produced a reality in which even a truce offers little protection. As we are seeing, reconstruction has stalled and civilians remain exposed to violence, disease and poverty.
If this unstable model is allowed to become the norm, the consequences will be profound. Gaza, which was already suffering before the war, is a tragedy in its own right but is also shows a disorderly future taking shape. The longer this situation is tolerated, the more difficult it will be to resolve.
