For the first time in 50 years, an Israeli government will last its full four-year term after it was announced on Sunday that the next general election will be held on October 27.
It is a testament to the political capabilities of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the popularity of the far right in Israel and the lacklustre nature of the opposition. Despite so many attack lines opening up during the government’s tumultuous period in office, Mr Netanyahu was never seriously threatened, even though many experts and opponents predicted his imminent downfall after the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, the worst security disaster in Israel’s history.
His success at remaining in office does not mean that he goes into the election with great momentum. Recent polls do not point to an easy win for Mr Netanyahu, although experts are far from ruling him out, given his decades of political success.
With the elections less than four months away, these are the allies and opponents most crucial to his success or failure.
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich
Two of the most important and visible Israeli politicians of recent times are on a slate that represents the boom in Israel’s ultranationalist right, much of which is fuelled by settlers in the occupied West Bank.
Mr Ben-Gvir, who currently serves as National Security Minister, is a convicted criminal who boasts about abusing Palestinian prisoners, calls for the resettlement of Gaza and in May was filmed celebrating the mistreatment of detained foreign activists. Polls show his party, Jewish Power, winning around eight seats in the 120-member Knesset.
Mr Smotrich, the Finance Minister, has been a driving force behind the unprecedented expansion of Israeli settlements under the current government and shares many of Mr Ben-Gvir’s goals. His Religious Zionist party has struggled in the polls, although recent surveys show it passing the electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent.
Ultra-Orthodox parties
Israel’s ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, pursue a narrow policy agenda focused on protecting the community’s isolated way of life, a goal that often angers the rest of Israeli society, who condemn the community for not doing its bit to help the country. Many ultra-Orthodox politicians do not define themselves as Zionists, believing that only God can declare a state of Israel.
The main issues stoking anger against the community are its exemption from military service and the vast subsidies given to its separate educational institutions, which critics say isolate the group from mainstream Israeli society and the modern world. There are currently frantic attempts to pass a military service exemption bill before the Knesset dissolves later this week.
The parties have overwhelmingly loyal support from their bases, with community leaders telling their people whom to vote for. Recent polls show the two parties together taking about 16 seats in the next parliament.
Gadi Eisenkot
A former military chief of staff who now heads the Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot is the only opposition politician to have moved ahead of Mr Netanyahu in recent polls. A survey by the public broadcaster Kan on Sunday gave Mr Eisenkot's party 24 out of 120 Knesset seats, one more than the Prime Minister’s Likud party.
Mr Eisenkot has steadily built a lead over his more established opponents Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, who were both prime ministers during the previous government. He is praised for representing Israel’s periphery regions, which complain of a lack of investment. He is respected for the losses his family suffered in the Gaza war that followed the October 7 attacks. His son and two nephews were killed. He is the son of Moroccan immigrants, which some analysts say is an important part of his support among Israelis with non-Ashkenazi backgrounds.
Mr Eisenkot’s campaign is trying to win votes in Likud strongholds, and he is seen as the most likely to do so. Pollsters say there is a risk that even successful opposition parties manage to increase their numbers only by winning over voters from other parts of the opposition. Mr Eisenkot also lacks political experience compared to other frontrunners.
Naftali Bennett
Long viewed by many as Mr Netanyahu’s main rival, Mr Bennett's poll numbers have been declining in recent months. The former special forces soldier and tech entrepreneur used to head Israel’s main settler council, but was denounced by many in the community after he formed a government in 2021 through a diverse coalition that included Arab parties.
Mr Bennett makes frequent appearances on foreign media channels, where he talks tough on Israel’s many security challenges. In Israel, many view him as a more moderate right-winger who has been shaped in part by his partnership with the centrist Yair Lapid. The pair formed the Together party in April.
Yair Lapid
Former journalist Yair Lapid, the leader of Israel’s opposition, heads Israel's most sophisticated opposition party, Yesh Atid. He served as finance minister and briefly as prime minister during the previous government.
He has established himself as one of Mr Netanyahu’s longest-standing critics in the Knesset, frequently railing against what he says are the Prime Minister’s security failures, his unwillingness to conscript ultra-Orthodox Israeli men and his attempts to weaken the judiciary. Like Mr Bennett, Mr Lapid has been declining in the polls.
Arab-Israeli parties
Despite many Jewish-Israeli politicians competing to distance themselves from the country’s Arab parties, including some in the opposition, they could prove crucial in giving Mr Netanyahu’s opponents a majority in the Knesset.
The four Arab parties – Balad, Hadash, Ta’al and United Arab List – have said they support running on a joint slate, although some political disputes remain. The four parties, which ran together in the 2015 and 2020 elections, have historically suffered from low turnout.
The arrival of a new Arab-Jewish party, A Place for Us All, which grew out of the activist movement Standing Together, which promotes Israeli-Palestinian peace, has also led some to fear that support for Arab and left-wing Israeli parties could further splinter during these elections.
Polls show the current union between Hadash and Ta'al winning five to six seats, and UAL winning around four. Neither Balad nor A Place for Us All have passed the electoral threshold in recent polls.
