US President Donald Trump is set to meet Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House on Wednesday, after hinting he may seek to reduce Washington's support for the bloc – or leave it altogether.
Mr Trump has repeatedly called the world’s largest military alliance a “paper tiger” and lashed out at Nato members for not supporting the US in its war on Iran, particularly in relation to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
He criticised France, Germany, Spain and Britain for their perceived lack of action, even though he had not included them in war planning or attempted to build a coalition before launching the conflict on February 28. He has also said the US did not need anyone else's help.
Despite his criticism of the bloc, Mr Trump has maintained cordial relations with Mr Rutte, earning the Dutch leader the nickname “the Trump whisperer”. On Monday, Mr Trump described him as “a great person” and a “wonderful guy”.
Still, the meeting comes amid deep tension. Mr Trump has long accused Nato members of failing to support the US when needed, and has repeatedly raised the possibility of withdrawing from the alliance.
“They haven’t been friends when we needed them,” he told Reuters in a recent interview. “We’ve never asked them for much … it’s a one-way street.”
Mr Trump cannot unilaterally withdraw the US from Nato. Due to a 2023 law co-sponsored by then-senator Marco Rubio, who is now the US Secretary of State, two thirds of the Senate must approve any move to pull the country out of the alliance.
Such an outcome is highly unlikely in today’s political climate, but Mr Trump has other ways to weaken Nato even if the US remains a member.
The cornerstone of the alliance is its mutual defence pact, known as Article 5. If Mr Trump says the US will not necessarily come to other members’ aid if they are attacked, Nato’s entire identity is called into question.
Article 5 has been invoked only once – by the US, after the September 11, 2001 attacks that prompted the invasion of Afghanistan. Nato troops remained in the country throughout the 20-year war.
“What Trump is basically doing is, maybe not technically taking the US out of the alliance, but he's doing it practically,” Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told The National. “The moment you signal that the United States is not committed to defend our allies, then it's a game changer.”
US critics of Nato say Washington spends too much money on the alliance, only for European members to refuse it access to their bases to bomb Iran.
Mr Trump has also focused heavily on defence spending, calling members that do not meet targets “delinquents”. He has pushed to raise the benchmark to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, up from the current 2 per cent target.
While it is true the US spends far more on defence than any other Nato member, the amount needs context.
Washington spends about $1 trillion on defence a year, but only a fraction of that goes to Nato. Meanwhile, the US pays about 16 per cent of Nato’s budget, similar to Germany. Several other members, including Poland and Lithuania, spend a higher percentage of their GDP on defence than the US.
Mr Trump’s grievances with the alliance during his second term also extend to his attempts to press a claim on Greenland, a Danish territory he has said the US needs for national security – raising alarm among European allies.
His stance on Ukraine has further increased concerns across Europe about Washington’s long-term commitment to the region.
One consequence of the US reducing its involvement in Nato might be to embolden Russia, particularly in its approach towards the Baltic states, analysts believe.
