There’s a moment in Sex and the City that has outlasted the show itself: Carrie Bradshaw, strolling through Manhattan with her friends, looks out at the city and declares: “You only get one great love – New York may just be mine.”
Lately, though, it feels as if the romance has fizzled out. The Manhattan of 2025 feels noticeably subdued.
The glow of Midtown’s towers still flickers, but the pavements feel emptier, tour buses with spare seats are idle, shops are deserted and queues that once wrapped around Broadway box offices have dissolved into scattered handfuls of theatregoers.
The Empire State Building, once packed daily with photo-snapping, jet-lagged travellers, has had days with no queues at all.
The numbers confirm what the streets suggest. New York City Tourism estimates that international tourism – long the lifeblood of the city’s visitor economy – remains 20 to 25 per cent below 2019 levels.
The city’s comptroller office puts the resulting shortfall at between $4 billion and $6 billion.
Hotel analytics firm STR reports occupancy hovering at about 78 per cent, down from 89 per cent before the pandemic.
And the Empire State Building? Its observatory says visitor numbers are nearly 60 per cent lower.
“Unfortunately, the pandemic devastated the city's restaurant and nightlife industry, and it has been a slow and difficult recovery. Many small businesses are still suffering,” Andrew Rigie, executive director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance, told The National.
Mr Rigie said many venues remain burdened with pandemic-era debt, have not recovered their customer base and face continuing operational pressures.
“Even in good times, running a restaurant is very difficult in New York City, and when you add on the impact of the pandemic and the slower-than-hoped return of tourism, it is a bad recipe,” said Mr Rigie, who was on mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s transition committee.
There are many culprits. Elevated hotel rates and a stubbornly strong dollar have squeezed foreign travellers’ budgets, and trade frictions linger.
UN diplomats also talk of the global political climate: strained relations and a more confrontational foreign policy under President Donald Trump have weighed on America’s international appeal.
For many visitors, the decision to take a long-haul holiday now feels as much political as financial.
“New York has become overpriced and many of my friends from abroad don’t want to come to visit any more for fear of being sent back. It’s all people flying to the US talk about,” Lebanese-American designer May Nahas told The National.
For a city that once prided itself on hosting everyone, it suddenly feels like it’s hosting no one.
Tourism agencies warn that the city may forfeit up to $4 billion in visitor spending in 2025 if the downturn persists.
Many restaurants, shops and entertainment venues are preparing for another tough year.
“We were hoping this year to see record tourist numbers, even better than in 2019 before the pandemic. Unfortunately, a lot of the policies between the tariffs and just the overall tenor and tone of the discussion have kept many people who were going to come to the United States, and were going to come visit New York City, away,” said Mr Rigie.
“Tourism is definitely down. We’ve heard a lot of Canadians, a lot of Europeans are not coming to the US, a lot of South Americans and Central Americans, and it’s a big problem because we rely heavily on these visitors to spend money at our local restaurants, our hotels, our small businesses, so it’s having a really negative impact.”
The lucrative international visitors, who stay longer and spend more, remain elusive. Spending from Canadians alone has dropped by hundreds of millions of dollars, worrying hotel owners who once depended on busloads from Toronto and Montreal to fill winter rooms.
“We need to make sure that the next mayor is out there promoting our city in a positive light … the whole world is going to be looking at New York City,” said Mr Rigie. “It’s a great opportunity for us to showcase our city and make sure that our local businesses and diverse neighbourhoods get the economic impact.”
Mr Mamdani has pledged to boost the tourism budget once in office, create a citywide “tourism tsar” and use the 2026 Fifa World Cup to rebuild New York’s image. The final of football's most prestigious tournament − hosted jointly by the US, Canada and Mexico − will be held at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19.
His plans include shifting attention beyond Times Square by promoting small businesses and cultural centres in immigrant neighbourhoods, and organising public viewing events to draw residents and visitors together.
Mr Mamdani’s plans and the World Cup may provide momentum, but for now, New York’s visitor economy faces a slow and uncertain path back to pre-pandemic strength.
