Donald Trump’s election victory has triggered a surge of Americans looking to move overseas.
High-profile examples include former television host Ellen DeGeneres, who has already decamped to the Cotswolds in England. With Mr Trump threatening “retribution” against his political foes, others are looking to follow, including LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, a generous donor to the Democratic Party.
Singer Cher, who once lived in London's Docklands, joked about decamping to Jupiter before the president-elect's first term and has repeated her desire to leave ahead of his second term. Barbra Streisand said last year she wouldn't be able to live in America if Mr Trump was re-elected.
While measuring the number of people who press ahead with leaving the US may prove difficult, there is statistical evidence that the second Trump presidency could lead to lead to an increase in emigrants, judging by what happened when he first entered the White House in 2017.
According to official US statistics, 3,071 people renounced their US nationality in the first six months of 2017, following Mr Trump’s victory the previous November. By way of comparison, 961 did so in the same period after Joe Biden won the 2020 election.
And a study by International Living Magazine shows that a sizeable proportion of Americans are thinking about leaving the country following Mr Trump’s election. According to the publication's survey of 2,000 people, 70 per cent of respondents are now more interested in moving or retiring abroad. Just over half felt America’s economy is on a downward slope and 45 per cent fear that policy changes will impact their social security and push up America's already high healthcare costs.
“We have seen a significant uptick in the number of people who are exploring their overseas options,” Jennifer Stevens, the magazine’s executive editor, told The National. “We have been around since 1979 and after every presidential election we see an uptick, no matter who wins.”
However, she said potential expatriates appear more worried this year than in previous election cycles.
“This year we had more people than we have ever had in the 20-plus years we have run [the survey]. I think people are concerned about some social issues and they are also concerned about the economics,” she said.
Previously, interest in moving overseas came mainly from retirees, but the landscape has changed since the Covid pandemic, with more people used to working remotely. “Some countries began to create pathways for younger people who weren't retired,” she said.
The magazine saw a significant increase in interest from those aged 35 to 45, especially with generous incentives offered to Americans by countries such as Panama which does not tax foreign earned income. Mexico, Costa Rica, Portugal, Vietnam and Thailand are emerging as some of the most popular destinations.
However, getting into the UK is not as straightforward as it was following the scrapping of the investor visa in February 2022, lawyer Roger Gherson told The National. Rich Americans have been collateral damage of the move which was aimed at Russian oligarchs.
“Only 8 per cent of investor visas were Russians,” he added. “I did the last one five minutes before the new rules took effect. We have people who have floated companies on the Nasdaq who want to live or retire to the UK, but can’t because they don’t have a job or aren’t an ‘innovator’.”
Accusing politicians of knee-jerking, he added that Britain was losing out to countries such as Italy, Malta, Monaco, Cyprus, Portugal and Malta who welcome the wealthy with open arms. Spain’s special treatment is known as the “Beckham Visa” because of the tweak in the law after the footballer joined Real Madrid.
Another lawyer put it more bluntly. “There is no route for someone to get in [to the UK] because they are just loaded, you have to be actively doing something.”
One pathway, at least for those in showbusiness or technology, is what is known as the “global talent” visa. Ms DeGeneres, with a raft of Emmy awards, will be confident of meeting the criteria, although she would still have to meet strict rules about the timing.
The UK requires visa applications to be submitted from overseas. Applying for a global talent visa costs £716 ($913) and turnaround time is around eight weeks for the initial endorsement stage. Priority services offers to turn around applications for another £1,000.
UK estate agents are reporting a surge in interest from the US. “Some Hollywood royalty have already been in touch, looking for privacy as their number one requirement and that is something the UK countryside can give you,” said Edward Rook, head of the country department at estate agency Knight Frank.
“Demand is across all prices and not limited to the Cotswolds and we have seen strong interest in the Home Counties. Some have been told by friends to focus on one area, whereas others are more open-minded.”
There has been a similar trend in London, added Knight Frank’s Stuart Bailey, head of super-prime sales in the capital. “There are definitely buyers in London, and this has been going on for nine months. I’d say the election has catalysed this and enhanced something that already existed.”
Another trend has been Americans dipping into their heritage to get a European passport. People are looking at Ireland and Italy in particular. Greece offers a golden passport route for investors which can also create a pathway to citizenship.
In countries that have dual-taxation agreements, the well-off can still find themselves having to keep Uncle Sam happy after paying their dues in their adopted home. Nevertheless, many Americans who move overseas hang on to their US passports, even though that means they must fill in a tax return every year.
The rules are fearsome since the passage of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act. The penalties for not complying including forfeiting up to 50 per cent of assets held outside the US.
One obvious solution is surrendering US nationality. Former British prime minister Boris Johnson, who was born in New York, did so when the American taxman chased him for money on the profit from the sale of his London home.
But surrendering US nationality is hardly painless. There is the denaturalisation fee of more than $2,000, and anyone worth more than $2 million also faces an “exit tax”. There is also the possibility of facing a tax audit – an expensive, complicated process.
