As fears over the US-Israeli war with Iran and its fallout filter into Britain's homes, one party running on an anti-war platform could make unexpected gains at May’s local elections.
The Green Party, which has four MPs in the UK parliament, is currently polling joint second most popular – alongside the Conservatives and ahead of Labour – in a YouGov survey of people’s voting intentions, with 17 per cent of the ballot compared to Labour’s 16 per cent.
The right-wing populist Reform UK party leads the survey, with 27 per cent.
The Green Party has its roots in environmental activism but has widened its support base in the past two years owing to its anti-war and pro-Palestine stance – eating away at Labour’s traditional support base.
Its leader Zack Polanski, who has led the party since last September, has been a vocal critic of the US and Israeli air strikes on Iran, and called on the UK to expel American forces from its bases in the Middle East and Cyprus. He has also urged Britain to leave Nato.
In a speech launching the Greens local election campaign last week, Mr Polanski began by condemning Israel’s intensive air attacks on Lebanon, including a sustained raid in which hundreds were killed in 100 strikes in 10 minutes.
“There is no distinction here between civilians and combatants,” he said. “And once again, Starmer is too cowardly and complicit to condemn Israeli atrocities.” Mr Polanski called for “more robust” sanctions on the Israeli government and a suspension of all diplomatic ties with and arms sales to the “increasingly rogue state”.
Mr Polanski – hailed in some quarters as the British equivalent of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani – has raised the party’s profile since his election in September, campaigning for wealth taxes, cheaper housing and rent controls.
One of the party’s London candidates, Antoinette Fernandez, said she noticed the war was on people’s minds when she was out on the doorsteps. “I’ve yet to meet anyone that feels what is happening in the Middle East is a good thing, or that the Labour government has done enough to condemn it,” she said. “Labour is at best slack, or at worst complicit.”
But the bigger concern was the soaring cost of rent and other services that are expected to increase due to the UK’s impending energy crisis.
“In the general election [July 2024], Palestine was a bigger issue then,” she said. “Because it’s a local election, people are more concerned about low-traffic neighbourhoods, fly tipping, housing, the cost-of-living crisis, damp and mould.”
The energy crisis following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has revived debate about renewables and energy dependency, which could work in the Green’s favour, as daily living costs are expected to surge.
“The anti-war movement might have a particular renewable energy angle in the context of the current conflict in Iran, and the Greens might well benefit from this since they have of course long advocated reduced dependence on oil and gas,” said Paul Webb, professor of politics at the University of Sussex.
But the party is also feeling the effects of being increasingly in the spotlight. Ms Fernandez said: “Our profile has risen. People are more aware of what we're about. People aren't really asking me about our stance on Palestine.”
The party having shifted its focus from environmentalism to include social justice appears to be attracting a wider range of voters.
The top reason for voting Green remains its environmental stance, with 22 per cent of voters saying they would do so on that basis. But this is significantly lower than it was a year ago (49 per cent), according to a YouGov poll.
Instead, 38 per cent of those backing the Greens said they did so for reasons not tied to the environment, with one in six (16 per cent) saying they support the party’s policies in general.
Ms Fernandes is the Green party's global majority reparations officer and will be running in Hackney council’s Lea ward. Labour has controlled the council since 2002. The battle here is unlikely to be with Reform, but with Labour.
“Hackney is a hotbed – there are a lot of minorities here and a lot of politically literate people,” she said. She accused the Labour council of repeatedly failing on their promise to make affordable housing available when they approve new build applications.
She will also campaign for the council's divestment from companies “associated with the genocide in Gaza”.
Anti-war campaigns
Anti-war activism has strong roots in the UK, with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn having name his name in politics through his work with the Campaign Against Nuclear Disarmament, while religious groups such as the Quakers have a strong anti-war stance.
Equally, the Stop the War Coalition has appealed to British Muslims since it campaigned against the Iraq war in 2003, and more recently in its opposition to the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.
But Prof Webb believes the Iran war would expand anti-war sentiment beyond its usual base. “This particular conflict has probably inspired far wider anti-war sentiment than previous conflicts,” he said.
He highlighted Ipsos polling in March, which found a majority of voters of Labour (67%), Conservative (52%), Liberal Democrat (69%) and other parties (76%) in 2024 disapproved of US military strikes on Iran, but while more than half of Reform UK 2024 voters approve of US strikes (53%).
“The supporters of most parties disapproved of the US strikes against Iran quite early in the conflict and I think disapproval has only grown since then,” Prof Webb said.
The possibility of an influential anti-war vote emerged during the last general election, triggered by the UK government’s support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, backed by then-opposition leader Keir Starmer.
Four independent MPs won in Labour strongholds, after they appealed mainly to their constituency’s Muslim voters through a controversial campaign known as the Muslim Vote.
Challenges
But the party also faces immense challenges. Mr Polanski, who is Jewish, has been under pressure to combat extremist and antisemitic comments made by some of the party’s local candidates.
It was also due to debate a Zionism is racism motion which was ultimately shelved following backlash. Mr Polanski would not be drawn into whether or not he supported the motion, stressing that any of the Green party’s 190,000 members could put one forward for debate.
He told Times Radio in February that he would support a motion that limited the definition of Zionism to the Israeli government’s conduct in Gaza.
There were also concerns about the Green’s tactics at the Gorton and Denton by election this year, which saw a victory for plumber Hannah Spencer, and with Reform coming second in what has historically been Labour territory.
Election losers Reform accused Green campaigners of “sectarianism” as they used brochures written in Bengali and pictures of the Prime Minister meeting the Indian leader Narendra Modi.
More than a third of those considering a vote for the Greens feared it could be a wasted vote (36 per cent) – but this is down from 50 per cent in February 2025.
Another contender for Labour’s disillusioned left wing has been Your Party, cofounded by former Mr Corbyn and the former Labour MP Zara Sultana. Mr Corbyn has been an MP for Islington North for over 40 years, with many supporters in neighbouring Hackney.
But public spats between its founders shortly after it was established has seen support shift to the Greens.
Ms Fernandez said she was not be scared of Reform gaining seats in parliament. “We should be focusing more, not on fearing the far right, but on ways in which to stop them from growing, like education and investing in local communities. When people aren't invested in it's easy for them to want to try to find a scapegoat,” she said.
“A lot of white working class people, if they realise how much they do have in common with migrants, they'd be less likely to blame the migrants,” she said.
