On the sunny streets of Manchester on Monday, there are not only the posters vying for voters’ attention in local elections but chatter, too, over the possibility that Britain’s next prime minister will emerge from the city.
That notion has been fuelled by a private rendezvous at the weekend by two leading contenders to replace Keir Starmer – Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham – meeting in Manchester for talks as the Prime Minister comes under increasing pressure.
The conflict in the Middle East will be put to one side on Monday as the Prime Minister attempts to stabilise his position, after questions have once again been raised over his political judgment over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.
Addressing parliament, Mr Starmer will attempt to reassure MPs over last week’s damaging revelations that Mr Mandelson was given the key diplomatic post despite failing security vetting, allegedly over his links to China and Russia.
Mr Starmer will tell MPs that he had not been informed of the matter when he appointed Mr Mandelson because the chief Foreign Office civil servant at the time, Olly Robbins, had not disclosed the reasons for Mr Mandelson's vetting failure to No 10 Downing Street.
Mr Robbins was fired by the Prime Minister last week but he will have his moment to explain his decision to override vetting officials before the foreign affairs committee on Tuesday.
It has been suggested Mr Robbins was under pressure from Downing Street to ensure it was Mr Mandelson who took up the ambassador's post last year, given the influential Labour figure’s strong ties with US President Donald Trump.
But government officials made clear on Monday that if Mr Starmer had known about the vetting failure he would have acted differently.
“It's absolutely the case that had the Prime Minister been aware that UK security vetting had recommended against his security clearance, clearly he would not have appointed Mandelson,” Mr Starmer’s spokesman said.
Friday night chatter
The leadership whispers are taking place in the backdrop of intense campaigning for local elections on May 7, when Labour is braced for a hammering with the potential loss of 2,000 council seats and control of the Welsh and Scotland assemblies.
That has increased speculation that talks held at Ms Rayner’s home between her and Mr Burnham, the former deputy prime minister and the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, might have featured more than mere political gossiping.
“In politics, conversations always take place,” said a Labour official in Manchester. “But the question remains as to whether they turn into something more, or simply remain as Friday night chatter.”
But he added “perception matters” and if MPs in Westminster sense that “there’s movement behind the scenes”, that could create momentum for a leadership challenge.
Mr Burnham’s open backing for Ms Rayner would make any leadership bid from her near unstoppable. In return she would probably ensure he was given a seat in parliament and a Cabinet post, one Labour MP suggested.
Manchester awaits
One fifth of Labour MPs, or at least 80, would have to openly declare no confidence in the Prime Minister for an official leadership contest to take place.
Ms Rayner's main difficulty is that results of an inquiry into stamp duty paid on her second home remain pending. Mr Burnham’s issue is that he is not an MP and has had one attempt to return to Westminster thwarted by Mr Starmer, when he was blocked from running in a Manchester by-election eventually won by the Greens.
That came the day before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, a move Mr Starmer has questioned in his new combative stance against Mr Trump that has restored some of his political credibility.
No 10 Downing Street is therefore putting its faith in the Prime Minister’s well-received actions during the Iran war to buy him political capital that may well ensure his survival in office, even if Labour take a beating in the May elections.
“The Prime Minister on the big calls facing this country has made the right calls … saying we will not get involved with a war with no clear objective, no exit plan,” ally and Cabinet minister Liz Kendall said.
As one half of Manchester savoured City’s defeat of Arsenal in the English Premier League on Sunday, Britain’s fastest growing urban region knows it might soon provide the nation's new leader.
