The war with Iran has laid bare one of the global economy's most exposed fault lines. For nearly two months, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped and the countries that depend most heavily on what passes through it are now confronting the full weight of that reliance.
A new index by The National's data team maps that exposure across the globe. The Gulf Trade Exposure Index (GTEI), compiled using 2024 trade data via BACI, ranks countries by their vulnerability to disruption and Gulf reliance on oil and fertiliser shipments. Each country receives a rated category reflecting both measures, providing a comprehensive picture of how deeply the global economy depends on Gulf supply routes.
Fuel
Our index shows just how concentrated global demand for Gulf fuel is and how heavily it leans towards Asia. The chart below uses a Marimekko format: the width of each bar shows how dependent a country is on the Gulf as a share of its total fuel imports, while the height reflects the total value of imports. Countries such as South Korea, Japan and China import vast volumes of oil and gas, making them some of the most exposed economies when supply is disrupted. But it is not just about how much they buy. The width of each bar in the chart below highlights how dependent they are on the region as a supplier, revealing a deeper layer of vulnerability.
Pakistan sources nearly 80 per cent of its fuel imports from the Gulf, the highest share among the major economies in the index, earning it a Critical exposure rating. Kenya, despite disappearing when all countries are displayed due to the relatively modest size of its imports, is also rated Critical: almost 70 per cent of its fuel comes from the Gulf.
Japan tells a different story of exposure. It imports 97 per cent of its oil needs from abroad and is structurally one of the most energy import-dependent advanced economies in the world. The Gulf accounts for just under half of that, at 49.3 per cent of Japan's fuel imports in 2024, earning it a High exposure rating. For the world's fourth-largest economy, that is significant vulnerability.
Africa's exposure to Gulf-critical imports runs deeper still. Tanzania also relies on 54 per cent, and South Africa, the continent's largest economy, around 45 per cent. For these nations, Gulf dependency has led to fuel subsidy announcements, as well as a push for more people to use public transport options to save on fuel and turn to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cooking canisters.
China is the world's largest crude oil importer by volume. According to our index, China imported 36.5 per cent of its crude oil and fuel products from Gulf countries, but it is not only the percentage share of imports that makes China a key importer – it is also the size of imports in 2024. China spent $174.84 billion on Gulf fuel imports, making it the largest exporter. That ratio, along with the total volume of imports of fuel from the Gulf, makes China a high-risk dependent on Gulf fuel.
Analytics firm Kpler, which tracks tanker movements, recorded 1.38 million barrels per day of Chinese crude imports from Iran in 2025, equivalent to 12 per cent of China's total. While most of those barrels were almost certainly relabelled as Malaysian to disguise their origins, some may have been rebranded as Indonesian, Iraqi, Omani or Emirati crude. China's GAC has not reported any imports from Iran since 2022.
Despite high index scores, exposure does not translate uniformly into immediate risk. China, for all its dependence, holds vast strategic petroleum reserves, enough to weather a disruption over many months. The more acute danger lies with smaller, less-protected economies where Gulf fuel has no substitute and reserves are thin.
Fertiliser
The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not linked only to energy. Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, are among the world's largest producers and exporters of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers, and countries that depend on them face different but equally consequential forms of exposure that affect food production, supply and prices. The impact of the fertiliser shortages will translate into food shortages and higher prices for consumers, with the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN warning that ‘disruptions in fertiliser markets are increasing production costs for farmers' and affecting agricultural productivity both within the region and beyond.
Malawi is the most Gulf-dependent nation for fertilisers in the index, sourcing 61.3 per cent of its fertiliser imports from the region, earning it a Critical rating with very high import concentration. For one of sub-Saharan Africa’s poorest and most food-insecure countries, sustained supply disruption would feed directly into the planting season and staple crop yields.
India also stands out as the largest exposure to fertiliser distribution from the Gulf by value. It imports $2.76 billion in Gulf fertilisers annually, the highest figure in the data set, with 35.9 per cent of its supply coming from the region. With more than a billion people to feed and a huge agriculture sector that accounts for an estimated 15 per cent of its GDP, India’s fertiliser dependency carries hefty consequences.
Sri Lanka (47.3 per cent), Myanmar (35 per cent) and Pakistan (30.4 per cent) also have Critical ratings, each relying on the Gulf for about a third or more of their fertiliser supply. Australia’s presence in the index is notable. Despite being one of the world's leading agricultural exporters, it sources 32 per cent of its fertilisers from the Gulf, earning it a High exposure rating in our index.
Some of the main crop cycles and dependencies that rely on gulf fertilisers highlighted by the FOA, include:
- Sri Lanka, where the Maha rice harvest is underway
- Bangladesh, currently in its critical Boro rice season
- Sudan, already facing acute food insecurity
- In Sub-Saharan Africa, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique are particularly exposed due to high dependence on fertiliser imports.
- Major agricultural exporters such as Brazil may also face production impacts, with potential spillovers into global markets.
The real concern, however, is not for agricultural powers such as Australia and India, both of which hold substantial stockpiles and have the diplomatic and financial weight to reroute supply chains if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. It is for poorer nations such as Malawi, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, which may simply find themselves priced out of whatever alternative supply exists.
Direct impact on markets
Even countries that can find alternative suppliers may not be able to afford them. Urea futures have risen above $700 per tonne, their highest level since October 2022, and are up more than 70 per cent this year, as the conflict severely disrupts global fertiliser markets.
The war has driven a sharp surge in natural gas prices, a key feedstock for urea production, while restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have curtailed flows through a chokepoint that handles about a third of global fertiliser shipments. For nations already operating on thin import budgets, the price shock alone may be enough to trigger shortfalls long before any physical supply gap materialises.
Urea fertiliser is a highly concentrated nitrogen source used primarily to promote rapid growth in leafy, green foliage plants such as wheat, maize, rice and sugar cane, and pasturelands for livestock. Adnoc is a major global sulphur producer, accounting for roughly 5 per cent of worldwide production, largely from the Shah Sour Gas Plant, which produces 4.2 million tonnes annually.
Methodology
Gulf countries are: UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq.
The categories from the Baci data set used were: 'Mineral Fuels, Oils, Waxes, and its Distillated Derivatives' (HS27) and 'Fertilisers' (HS31)
The Gulf Trade Exposure Index (GTEI) assigns a category ranging from “Negligible” to “Critical” to countries that import from the Gulf. The categories are based on the relationship between the importing country’s Gulf contribution to imports and import concentration for a specific product.
Gulf contribution is measured using the share of total imports from the Gulf, while import concentration is measured using the Herfindahl – Hirschman Index (HHI). A low concentration means that the importing country has exporting countries contributing nearly equal shares of the total imports. However, a high concentration means that the importing country relies heavily on a few exporting countries.
The following table shows how the Gulf contribution and import concentration shape exposure:
