Leading financiers will flock back to the UAE and Gulf as the risk of the Iran war reigniting declines, one of Goldman Sachs' top bankers has said.
Anthony Gutman said he had witnessed “intensity and desire” to get on with business in a visit to Dubai and Abu Dhabi this week.
The co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International said he wanted to assess the situation first-hand and check in with staff and clients.
“I would say the mood is incredibly positive,” he said. “The level of intensity and desire to continue to do more both domestically and internationally is there.”
Mr Gutman is one of the most senior international bankers to have visited since the Iran ceasefire began nearly two weeks ago.
After a series of high-level meetings with sovereign wealth funds and institutions, he sat down with The National.
High finance professionals and asset managers were among the many whose lives were disrupted by Iran's war of aggression against the Gulf states. The UAE was targeted with more missiles and drones than Israel, Tehran's main enemy.
“People are very mindful of what the region has been through and continues to go through. They're focused on the security and the safety of their people,” Mr Gutman said.
“But it's very clear to me that there's no lack of ambition. And while it's not quite business as usual, the desire to deploy capital and to drive returns and drive value and do what we like our clients to do with us is absolutely clear.”
Bankers were among those who took an extended break from the UAE during the war. Many are now getting back to business.
“We're in the relationship business. These relationships are no different to any other relationships in your life. And when you have a friend in need, you come and see them,” Mr Gutman said.
“Look, I went for lunch today. The restaurant was full. I went for a coffee at Starbucks. I had to queue up to get my coffee.
“By the way, I was stuck in incredible traffic, which, for once, I would say is a healthy sign. And it's clear that the perception of what's going on here versus the reality is different. The UAE and Abu Dhabi today felt very consistent with how it's felt in the prior times I visited.”
Goldman Sachs turned in one of its most profitable quarters yet, with revenue just over $4 billion. Investment banking deal-making and advisory soared.
The advisory backlog is close to record levels. Mr Gutman made it clear we have moved past the “pause” in the region at the start of the war, and that Middle East deal volumes will not be far off from previous years, albeit back-ended. Mergers and acquisitions activity globally remains resilient despite the crisis. The tailwinds for a solid 2026 are still intact. He admitted some surprise at the level of activity in Europe and Hong Kong, where he has just been.
The question on everyone’s mind is the scale of damage this war will inflict on the UAE – Abu Dhabi and Dubai – as a destination for capital, both human and financial.
Mr Gutman said Goldman teams are “consistently” choosing to return. Again, he made the point that while there is, of course, an impact, physically being here is a good reminder of reality, and the world needs to adjust.
Ultimately, if the duration of the war is short, the impact will be limited. There will be a healing process; however, the region retains relative attractiveness given the lack of global alternatives.
So, for those calling for a severe retrenchment of capital and talent from the region, a more realistic outcome may be a healthy recalibration. That’s my takeaway from a conversation with perhaps the most senior global banker to touch down in the UAE since this war began. Actions matter – and will determine who wins the next deal. That’s free advice.
