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Britain has drawn up plans to cope with potential food shortages and healthcare disruption as the Iran war causes a fall in supplies of carbon dioxide.
The government has planned what it needs to do if the war continues. In a “reasonable worst-case scenario”, officials don’t foresee aisles of empty shelves, but do expect a lack of product variety in shops if the Strait of Hormuz – the vitally important waterway in the Gulf that has been effectively closed since the war erupted – has not reopened by June.
Of greater concern is the potential impact on health care and the civil nuclear industry as "dry ice" is vital for cooling blood supplies, organs and vaccines, as well as for Britain’s national electricity supply.
The supply of CO2 could be hit due to rising gas prices in Europe, as it is typically created as a by-product of the production of substances such as ammonia and fertiliser. The UK imports at least a fifth of its supply, mostly from Scandinavia. In 2021, the government was forced to step in to meet the operating costs of two CO2 manufacturing plants that temporarily closed after gas prices rose sharply, forcing the food industry to pay five times more for carbon dioxide.
The boss of the supermarket giant Tesco said it was in “constant contact” with the government to support its contingency planning, but had not seen any problems with suppliers so far.
Carbon dioxide is vital for the food industry because it’s used in packaging, brewing, fizzy drinks and the slaughter of animals such as pigs and chickens, to help extend shelf life. It’s also critical for Britain’s healthcare sector – where dry ice, a solid form of CO2, is used to cool blood supplies, vaccines and transplant organs – as well as civilian nuclear production. There are limited stockpiles and little surplus.
The scenario planning, named Exercise Turnstone, was carried out by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, according to a report in The Times on Thursday, confirmed by Business Secretary Peter Kyle.
The Times said that under the plans, factories would be asked to increase CO2 production to 100 per cent by ceasing other manufacturing, with emergency legislation invoked if necessary to compel the factories to co-operate.
“Now this information is out there, I hope people are reassured that we’re doing this work,” Mr Kyle told Sky News. “You should expect the government to be doing these sorts of things.”
He said Prime Minister Keir Starmer had been involved in the Cobra meetings from the outset. Mr Kyle said his decision in the early days of the Iran conflict to temporarily restart the mothballed Ensus bioethanol plant in the north-east of England had shored up the country’s CO2 supplies. The factory is now running at full production, he added.
“These are the things that have been going on: it hasn’t been public, but I’ve been working very hard when it comes to resilience,” Mr Kyle said. He said supplies of carbon dioxide are “not a concern” for the UK. “If any of these things change, I will be up front with the public about it in advance so that we can prepare," he added.
“But right now, people should go on as they are, enjoying their meats, enjoying all the salads. But also there are critical uses for CO2: MRI scanning, for example, water purification – it’s involved in our nuclear industry, our civil nuclear power industry, there are some defensive uses for it as well. There’s lots of needs for CO2, so these are the reasons why I took it so seriously way back six months ago, not just in the last few weeks.”
Tesco, Britain’s biggest grocer, said on Thursday that it is working with the UK’s Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, and other government departments, on all of their scenario planning. The supermarket said it is not seeing any food supply risks currently.
“We have a very strong sourcing team that spends a lot of time scenario planning, looking at weather patterns, demand patterns, shipping issues, whatever it may be, to make sure that we head off any issues well ahead of time,” Tesco chief executive Ken Murphy said on a media call following the release of the company's annual results. “That’s a pretty well-developed model and something that we’re absolutely continuing to do as we head into the summer.”
Mr Murphy did warn that while Tesco is not seeing any “meaningful inflation coming through” other than rising fuel prices“, much will depend on the length of the conflict and impact on households.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting told LBC he was “confident” that NHS supplies would remain resilient, but added there were plans to prioritise ambulances in the event of diesel shortages. He added: “The likelihood of us needing to activate these worst-case scenario plans is reassuringly low.”
A government representative said: “Reasonable worst-case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”
Elsewhere, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has expanded plans to cut electricity bills for thousands of UK manufacturing firms as she continues talks in Washington focused on the economic fall-out from the Iran conflict.
In a bid to help businesses hit by rising costs, a plan announced last summer to cut electricity bills by up to 25 per cent for more than 7,000 UK businesses will be expanded to cover 10,000 firms.
