The number of migrants crammed on to boats making the dangerous English Channel crossing has risen to record levels, with an average of 80 per vessel on some days, analysis by The National can reveal.
The highest number to cross in a single boat was 125 last Saturday, exceeding the 106 who arrived on one boat in August and the previous high of 98 in October 2024.
Stopping the boats is a priority for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer who has promised to “smash the gangs” based in northern France who run the vast people smuggling industry.
His government signed a deal with Iraq for UK law enforcement officers to work in Kurdistan, the centre of the people smuggling industry, brought in a Border Force command tasked with tackling smuggling in the same way as terrorism and sought to go after the supplies of boats travelling from Turkey.
Mr Starmer’s Labour Party is currently trailing in the polls to the right wing populist Reform, in large part to its leader Nigel Farage harnessing anger at migrants arriving in small boats and promising to deport 600,000 illegal migrants if he takes office.
As Labour held its annual conference, the Prime Minister sought to get on the front foot by calling the vessels “Farage boats”, claiming their increase was due to Brexit, which the Reform leader played a central role in bringing about.
But the data for daily arrivals shows the challenge facing Mr Starmer.
Analysis by The National shows that since mid-August, the average number per boat in a single day has topped 80 on four occasions.
The highest daily average was 85 on September 20. This year there have also been 16 days when the average was over 70, compared to just three in 2024.
The number of attempts in a day can vary significantly due to the weather and the on-off presence of French police at the shoreline.
So far, 33,566 migrants have crossed the English Channel and is on course to match the 45,755 who arrived in 2022, the record for a total year.
However, in 2022 that number was achieved in 1,110 crossings, compared with 559 so far this year.
The difference is sometimes accounted for by an increase in the size of many of the boats used by smugglers. Instead of tiny 'paddle' dinghies which were used at first, they are now turning to much bigger craft to maximise the profit per journey.
Supply and demand
But as The National reported a year ago, the increasing number of deaths of migrants in the English Channel was being linked to larger numbers cramming on to each boat.
That came about as a result of shortages of boats, attributed to a crackdown by UK and European law enforcement on the supply of parts coming from Turkey.
Measures include a deal signed with Germany to allow its police to seize boats, which are commonly stored in warehouses. The vessels are shipped from Turkey, where they are made using parts sourced in China.
'Small hands'
Giulia D'Amico, a researcher from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI – TOC), says the reduced supply of boats is still having the effect of criminals getting more migrants on to each boat.
But the amount of money to be made has resulted in the emergence of a new tier of people smugglers, which is also pushing up the average number.
Ms D'Amico is part of a team looking in detail at people smuggling in northern France, producing a report earlier this year into why more migrants are getting on each boat.
The study found that a new group of smugglers it describes as “small hands” work with the Kurdish people smuggling gangs who dominate the industry.
They use their language skills to recruit fellow migrants from their own nationality or ethnicity for boats, in exchange for free passage at a later date.
They have detailed knowledge of the best crossing points from French beaches and work in groups to prepare and launch the boats. They charge a fee of between €1,000 ($1,175) and €1,500 ($1,760) for each boat and with four working per boat.
Ms D'Amico explained that the “small hands” also earn extra money by adding their own clients to the boats, from whom they take direct payment in cash.
More senior smugglers have discovered later that a boat they had planned to accommodate 50 passengers launched with 70 on board.
"One of the most common problems has been that the small hands add more clients on the boats at the last minute, making their own money through these payments in cash, usually from clients that have poorer economic conditions," Ms D'Amico told The National.
"So boats are overloaded and the hands make cash without the smugglers knowing that."
Industrial strategy
Ms D'Amico said this is all is due to "smuggling becoming a very industrialised business" with more people involved.
“It started as a network with eight to 12 people but now we’re seeing the emergence of these small hands.
“If each small hand brings some people themselves the numbers soon begin to add up.
“And this is not really dependent on there being bigger sized boats, because we have also seen small boats with tons of people on top of them.”
Another factor is that smuggling gangs are also adapting their prices as a result of increased activity by law enforcement, which has pushed up the cost of acquiring boats and engines.
Prices are now €7,000 ($8,220) but the smugglers also provide low-cost options for poorer migrants, such as Sudanese and Eritreans, who are offered passage for €900 ($1,050) and €1,100 ($1,300).
But that means smugglers need to load more on to each boat to make up for the lost profit margins.
For those migrants who can’t even afford the reduced prices, there is another option.
They pay what are known as ‘zigzag’ brokers between €100 ($117) to €400 ($470), to take them to a point on the coast where a boat is being prepared for launch.
There the migrant can attempt to board by force, and those already aboard often have little option but to comply. The GI-TOC study says some migrants have threatened to destroy the boat if they are not allowed to board.
The ‘zigzag’ brokers rarely face retribution as the Kurdish smugglers are unable to recognise who is who among the sub-Saharan African migrant population.
Ms D'Amico said: “There is less care towards life – people will try everything in order to get on to the boat, and the smugglers would try anything to get more people on to the boat.
“They're trying everything they can in order to keep the business going.”
A co-ordinator for Utopia 56, a charity that works with migrants in northern France, told The National there has been a visible increase in the numbers of migrants per boat.
“In September there has often been around 70 per boat often getting to the boat whereas around the beginning of the year it was around 55,” said the co-ordinator, who asked for his name to be withheld.
The charity worker, who is responsible for the migrant camp nicknamed The Jungle, said he recognised the claim that migrants were rushing on to boats after paying to be taken to launch spots on the beach.
“Some people try to cross in any way that they can because they want to get out of the living conditions here.”
Failed measures
The first attempt to seriously tackle the small boats was the scheme instigated by the previous Conservative government of Rishi Sunak to send migrants to Rwanda to have their asylum claims processed there.
It was intended to deter migrants from crossing and so break up the gangs business model but it ran into difficulty in the courts and was dropped by Labour.
With the “smash the gangs” strategy not shifting the dial, Mr Starmer signed a "one in, one out" deal with French President Emmauel Macron. This allows for migrants who arrive by boat to be deported in return for allowing refugees with a legitimate claim for asylum into the UK.
Tony Smith, the former director of the UK’s Border Force who now works as a border security consultant, said further co-operation is needed from France.
“Obviously the boats are getting bigger and they've been loading more people on them than they used to but I don’t understand why, with boats of this size, nobody in the French police is spotting them,” he told The National.
"They’re doing this right under the noses of the French. So if they’re making money they’re going to keep doing it as long as they’re not going to get arrested.”
