UK recognition of Palestine 'highly likely' after Israel's furious reaction

Israel unlikely to fulfil Britain's conditions to prevent move

A pro-Palestine protest outside the UK parliament. Britain is now likley to recognise a Palestinian state as Israel rejects its conditions not to do so. Thomas Harding / The National

Britain has boldly made its move on recognising a Palestinian state but the question remains, will Israel listen?

It is less than likely that Israel will seek to fulfil the four conditions that Prime Minister Keir Starmer set out on Tuesday, in his major foreign policy reversal, as it has vehemently criticised the British move.

But academics have told The National that there is a chance that the major change in UK foreign policy could influence the Israeli government’s decisions.

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More importantly, with a number of countries moving towards recognition, including France, it could have an impact on Donald Trump’s thinking.

The US President, it is argued, is the only leader who can sufficiently influence Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

UK recognition of Palestine as a state is now “highly likely” to happen in September as Israel will not meet the conditions set out, Sir William Patey, co-chairman of the Labour Middle East Council, told The National.

While he believed that recognition should have been made without conditions, it would at least give the Palestinians “some hope that the international community has not gone soft on a two-state solution, even if one is not immediately in prospect”.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer with Donald Trump, who is seen as having the most influence on Israel's leader. Reuters

Sir William, who is a former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, believes that Britain acting together with France and Saudi Arabia, could help “end the carnage and to move things forward in a more positive light”.

“But they are up against the two most intransigent set of people that we've ever seen in the Middle East, Hamas and the most right-wing Israeli government that ever existed,” he added.

Sir William Patey warned of the intransigence of Hamas and Israel's right-wing government. EPA

President Sheikh Mohamed on Wednesday received a phone call from UK Prime MinisterKeir Starmer when he praised Mr Starmer’s statements regarding Britain's intention to recognise the Palestinian state. He also stressed the priority of reaching an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and continuing the flow of humanitarian aid into the enclave.

Israel rejection

Mr Starmer's conditions demand that Israel ends the starvation in Gaza, achieves a ceasefire with Hamas, refrains from annexing the occupied West Bank and commits to the two-state solution, otherwise Britain will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September.

Israel's immediate response was to utterly reject the proposal with Mr Netanyahu condemning Mr Starmer’s position as one that “rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism” and could ultimately threaten Britain.

Co-operation on the conditions therefore seems unlikely, especially with a host of others pitching in, including former hostage and dual British-Israeli citizen Emily Damari, who said the UK’s new policy would not “advance peace – it risks rewarding terror” and sent a message “that violence earns legitimacy”.

There is also little hope from the Israeli opposition, with Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, stating that Britain’s position “does not advance the two-state solution – if anything, it distances it”.

Eyes on Trump

The words are strong but ultimately all eyes will be on Mr Trump’s reaction. “Many people, even in Israel, really hope that this time Trump will be the one who will say, ‘game over, no more war’, and that it will put an end to the fighting,” said Dr Michael Milshtein, head of Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv University.

The Israeli peace activist Gershon Baskin, who has close contacts with Hamas, agreed that “everything is dependent – the war in Gaza, the hostages and agreements – on what Donald Trump does and nothing else”.

“If he tells Netanyahu to end the war, the war ends,” he added. “If he tells Israel they can stay in Gaza, they'll stay in Gaza. If he says 'you got to get out of Gaza', they'll get out of Gaza.”

Internally displaced Palestinians carry bags of flour near a food distribution point in Zikim, northern Gaza Strip. EPA

He cited the Israeli government’s rapid U-turn on aid after Mr Trump expressed dissatisfaction over the images of starving Gazan children as the far reach of this influence.

So far, Mr Trump has been equivocal, stating he had “no view” on the issue and did not vehemently object to it.

“I guess Starmer is doing the same thing as [French president] Macron, and that’s OK. It doesn’t mean I have to agree,” he said before departing Scotland on Tuesday.

Pressure building

But others see this as a longer-term shift that goes beyond Mr Netanyahu’s time in office. Recognition is needed to “kick-start a process” that would “reach over the head of the Israeli government to the Israeli people” showing that “this is the way forward”, suggested MP Emily Thornberry, chairwoman of parliament’s foreign affair committee.

She told the BBC that Britain would remain “long-term allies” with Israel but would not do so “with this far-right government” and it is now down to Mr Trump to “lean on” Mr Netanyahu

Allied with France’s decision last week to recognise Palestine, alongside the Netherland barring entry to Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the UK's move could influence the US position.

Just as Israel's population has been affected by images of starving Palestinians broadcast by its popular Channel 12 news, those same pictures are influencing Americans.

“People speak here about an international tsunami against Israel, that the gathering of American and European pressure on Israel can really have a massive impact,” said Dr Milshtein.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned Keir Starmer’s position as one that 'rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism'. AFP

‘Things can change’

But what makes Mr Netanyahu highly unlikely to accept the British conditions is that the moment he agrees a ceasefire it will entail an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and his coalition government will almost certainly collapse.

“But everything is very dynamic, so things can change,” said Dr Milshtein. “Right now it is Trump's opinion and let's see what will happen with that. He has already surprised us when he spoke about starvation in Gaza so it can happen again.”

Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House think tank, argued that Palestinian recognition would be an “an unequivocal statement” that Britain views that as the only way to a secure future.

“The alternative to the creation of a Palestinian state is conflict without end, one that jeopardises Israel’s security,” she added.