Local elections could undergo 'sea change' with growth of UK Muslim politics

Poll for local councillors likely to create surge in votes for independent Muslim candidates in northern England

Leader of the Reform Party Nigel Farage and mayoral candidate Luke Campbell during a visit to the Boxclub boxing centre in Hull, England. Getty Images

The growing influence of Muslim voters in Britain could bring about a “massive sea change” and create a shift in the local elections next week, The National has learnt.

With four independent MPs winning seats in last year’s general election, the momentum of the growing power base of Britain’s four million Muslims is expected to continue in the May 1 poll.

Victories are expected for Muslims standing as part of a political movement in towns across Lancashire, northern England, and elsewhere, providing a base for future polls.

Mohammed Iqbal, an independent Muslim candidate standing in Pendle, Lancashire, told The National that, due to the Gaza conflict and Labour and Conservative policies, people were becoming “resentful” towards the national parties.

“The Labour government is losing people traditionally from the Muslim community and there’s no other political party for the Muslim vote to go to, hence the reason that the independents movement will grow,” he said.

Mr Iqbal, who emphasised that he was “British first, Muslim second”, added that independent councillors like himself “stepping up successfully” would probably lead to other Muslims going into politics.

In the 2024 general election, Labour, which had been criticised for its support of Israel following the attacks on October 7, 2023, suffered a 28 per cent drop in votes from Muslims, who traditionally had voted for the party.

Muslim political groups have since been organising “and are making a big play for this” following the successful pro-Palestine vote last year, said Alan Mendoza, director of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.

Given many areas could have a five-way split between the parties, there was a strong chance that some Muslim independents will get elected.

Pro-Palestine MP Iqbal Mohamed. Thomas Harding / The National

“If this knocks out the other parties and if Muslim voters in Britain are now switching to what is to all intents and purposes a Muslim political party that is a massive sea change in UK politics,” said Dr Mendoza, who is also a Conservative councillor.

Given that a lot of wards are rural, where Muslim voters are not concentrated, it will not be until next year when many cities have elections that it could have a possible major impact as a wave effect is targeted.

“They may make a massive breakthrough then when all the cities are up for grabs,” he added. “But this is not simply about Gaza, it’s about more than simply a foreign policy agenda, because it's also an agenda for Muslims in the UK.”

Sectarian politics fear

But the coming poll has not been without controversy, with some politicians raising fears of “religious sectarian politics” after pro-Gaza campaigners told Muslims who to back in High Wycombe Buckinghamshire.

Logos of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign and Palestine on the Ballot, on the materials circulated in the area, have raised hackles.

In a video posted on X, former Conservative minister Steve Baker condemned those encouraging local Muslims to vote for council candidates “on the basis of their position on Israel and Palestine”.

“What people have done by voting on religious lines is to promote fear and hatred among the mainstream of British people who detest religious sectarianism in politics,” said Mr Baker, who was removed as Wycombe MP by voters last July. “I shall certainly vote for candidates who say 'no' to religious sectarian politics.”

Former cabinet minister David Jones said he could see the Muslim vote increasing, following momentum from the general election last July.

But he also raised concerns about reports of the Muslim Brotherhood, considered a terrorist organisation and by several Arab countries including the UAE, becoming more established in Britain.

“This is an issue that needs to be treated with extreme care and sensitivity,” he said. “I believe that British politicians want Muslims to become involved with mainstream parties and not to put themselves in a political dead end.”

Resurgent Reform

The elections will also be a major test for the populist right-wing Reform party on whether it too can carry on its momentum from 2024 election in which is secured more than four million votes, nearly 15 per cent of the electorate.

The party is forecast to take a large chunk of the 900 seats being defended by the Conservatives and some of the 300 defended by Labour, with the Tories braced to lose up to 500 councillors.

“This is very important for Reform, because at the moment they are enjoying increasing popularity and significant forward momentum,” said Mr Jones. “They will need a good set of local elections to show that momentum is being maintained.”

Current predictions, according to the Electoral Calculus model, show that Reform and the Conservatives are on 25 per cent each, with Labour on 18 per cent and the Lib Dems on 17 per cent.

Reform is predicted to edge the Conservatives with both getting about 700 seats – with Labour on 400 and the Lib Dems on 300.

If Reform does win seats and councils, that will be when their “difficulties start” said Dr Mendoza, as being in government “will be a real test as you have to run councils, and that's not so easy”.

Kemi pressure

The governing Labour party will also be nervously examining the results, with the threat from pro-Palestine parties splitting its vote and Reform particularly eating into its numbers, that could take Nigel Farage’s party to win the parliamentary by-election seat of Runcorn and Helsby in Cheshire.

But the biggest impact could be on the faltering leadership of Kemi Badenoch, who took over the Conservative Party from former prime minister Rishi Sunak in November.

“Kemi is going to be sweating on it,” a senior Conservative source said. “She's already tried to dampen down expectations but there's an awful lot of disillusionment with her in the Commons.”

He added that if Ms Badenoch “continues not to make any progress” then she would be “vulnerable” come November, the earliest moment she can be challenged for the leadership after being a year in post.