A Labour candidate said the party's policy on the Gaza war “is definitely an issue” among voters in towns that are home to large Muslim populations.
About four in five UK Muslims voted for Labour in the 2019 general election, reinforcing historic links forged after the mass migration of workers from Pakistan in the 1950s and 1960s.
But polling now suggests one in five of those voters are set to turn away from the party over leader Keir Starmer’s refusal to back an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza. That has further weakened the traditional voting blocs and caused a split with Muslim supporters.
That rift could influence the results of the July 4 election in marginal seats where there is a sizeable Muslim population, including Keighley and Ilkley in Yorkshire, northern England.
"It's definitely an issue ... but I'm quite hopeful as the election campaign goes on that I will retain a large part of the Muslim vote where it's a particular concern," said Labour candidate John Grogan.
While some members of the Muslim community have withdrawn support for Labour, others pledged their support for Mr Grogan as he walked the streets campaigning, aided by a Bengali cricket team.
"Here in Keighley, the mosques are taking a neutral position. In some towns across the north of England, the mosques are saying, 'Don't vote for either of the main parties,'" he told AFP at his Keighley campaign office.
A robust doorstep debate revealed the depth of feeling on Gaza, with Mr Grogan stressing to one resident that a Labour government would "respect the power of the international court" and recognise a Palestinian state.
He also said he voted against the Iraq War while serving as an MP in 2003. The sceptical voter replied that Labour MPs would follow Mr Starmer's lead.
"Keir Starmer is going to be your leader, though. Whatever Keir Starmer says is what you follow," he said.
"The only one who is speaking at the moment is George Galloway," he added, referring to the veteran politician who recently became an MP by focusing on Gaza.
Mr Grogan said Mr Galloway was unable to make progress on the issue. "I want to be in parliament the day that Britain, France and Germany recognise a Palestinian state. We're committed to doing it," he added.
The ruling Conservatives could hold the seat if enough voters desert Labour for candidates such as Vasim Shabir, an independent who has made Gaza the focal point of his campaign.
"Gaza has galvanised a lot of people who were either politically apathetic or politically asleep," Mr Shabir told AFP.
"We want to be disrupters. I want to alter the election."
Solicitor Shaid Iqbal, a leading figure in the town's Muslim community, said people were "very, very angry" at the main parties over their policies on the Gaza war.
"They're angry at both parties. But the fact is, Labour more, because they thought that Labour was a party that would stick up for human rights, speak up against atrocities," he said. "They've let the public down."
Labour strategists said the issue lost them votes at local elections in England in May. But voters have become so disillusioned with the Conservatives that Labour still expects to win in Keighley and Ilkley, they said.
But Shabir said demographic divides within the Muslim community meant a Labour win would be short-lived. "The older generation, who don't have access to TikTok and social media, are still pretty much loyal to Labour," he said.
"The younger generation, British-born Pakistanis and Bengalis in this constituency, overwhelmingly do not want to vote for Labour. I think they are going to lose the vote for a generation to come."
He said there were "a lot of discussions going on" between independent candidates about forming a new party.
Analysis and modelling by Survation has put Labour on course for a 262-seat majority with the Tories reduced to a rump of just 72 MPs and Reform potentially picking up seven seats.
Mr Starmer came under pressure for his stance early in the war after stating that Israel has the right to withhold power and water from Palestinian civilians after the October 7 attack.
He also voted against a ceasefire in Parliament. Many councillors from mainly Muslim communities withdrew their support for the Labour leader as a result.
But his party’s position has shifted over time. Mr Starmer backed a "humanitarian pause" in the besieged enclave and has since given his support to a sustainable ceasefire.
Labour has tried to regain the support of Muslim voters by addressing the topic in its manifesto. The party has vowed to push for an immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages and a “rapid increase of aid” into Gaza.
“Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people. It is not in the gift of any neighbour and is also essential to the long-term security of Israel,” the manifesto said.
“We are committed to recognising a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process which results in a two-state solution, with a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.”
