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The conflict between Israel and the US and Iran presents a major risk of environmental damage to the Gulf, experts have said.
The region’s dense oil infrastructure, desalination plants and fragile ecosystems make it particularly vulnerable to attacks on energy facilities and ships at sea since war broke out on February 28, with a lack of accurate information and difficulty accessing sites hampering monitoring efforts.
Beyond immediate damage, the conflict could also reshape global energy trends, prompting countries to accelerate the shift towards renewables.
US President Donald Trump on Monday said he was postponing military strikes on Iran’s power plants for five days, after “productive” talks raising hopes of an end to the war. Iranian officials denied any such negotiations had taken place. Two days previously, he had said he was giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“One of the concerning things around this conflict is there is no clear stated aim or objective, there's this escalatory ladder which we're seeing,” said Doug Weir, director of the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a UK-based non-profit group that raises awareness of war’s environmental and humanitarian consequences. It so far has identified more than 400 incidents that carry potential environmental risks.
“The longer it goes on and the more intense it gets, the greater the degree of environmental damage and I think at the moment it's really difficult to predict what the final tally is going to be,” Mr Weir added.
Attacks have targeted oil depots in the Iranian capital Tehran, along with energy and desalination plants across the Gulf. Black rain – a mix of oil and water – fell on Tehran streets after Israeli strikes on oil facilities on March 7 and 8, prompting the World Health Organisation to warn of respiratory risks. The UN agency also agreed with Iran’s advice for people to stay inside. Israel said it was targeting fuel storage complexes there because they were being used for military purposes.
Mr Weir called these attacks “shocking”, noting Tehran already has from poor air quality. “It’s very clear that these actions were going to have a disproportionate civilian impact compared to whatever military benefits you might get from doing it,” he said.
Missiles and ordnance can also pollute the air. Sea pollution is another concern, with sunken Iranian ships potentially discharging oil and other pollutants into Gulf waters. “We need to be very concerned because of the scale of this and the fact that it affects so many territories,” said Mr Weir.
The UN Environment Programme (Unep) this month warned the violence was causing civilian harm, displacement, infrastructure destruction as well as severe environmental damage.
“Before this conflict began, the region was already facing severe environmental stress, especially relating to water resources,” a Unep representative said, also calling for a ceasefire.
“Strikes on desalination plants in several countries risk catastrophic consequences for communities that rely on them as a lifeline for water. The conflict will likely cause even greater stress on natural resources, damage marine and terrestrial ecosystems, set back efforts to enhance water and climate resilience, and impact the food chain and food safety.”
Aside from air pollution, Iran faces degraded ecosystems and water shortages, exacerbated by war. Environmental concerns typically rank low in post-conflict priorities. Mr Weir noted uncertainty over whether international donors would intervene and if Iran would be transparent about remediation.
“There is that sense the environmental damage we are seeing now – and which so far we have just scratched the surface of – won’t necessarily be addressed in the near or medium terms,” he said. “That then amplifies the risk to public health and also to ecosystems.”
The observatory uses radar maps, satellite images and social media to track dangers but said the information space is difficult due to restrictions and internet blackouts in Iran.
“What we're seeing is very limited and constrained in some ways because of the restrictions on what's available imagery-wise,” Mr Weir said.
Dr Nasser Karami, a water resources and climate change researcher who runs Mena Era, a Norwegian-based institute supporting vulnerable societies, said any large-scale outbreak of war would have “alarming environmental consequences” but reports of major pollution in the region remained scarce.
“This may partly be because, under the current wartime conditions, environmental institutions and monitoring bodies have not had sufficient access or opportunity to properly assess the situation on the ground,” said Dr Karami, who is originally from Iran.
The Gulf is a semi-enclosed, stressed ecosystem and pollution from oil spills can persist for years due to limited natural flushing. Dr Karami warned that sustained attacks on oil facilities could cause “strong reason for serious concern” about long-lasting ecological damage affecting fish stocks, coral, mangroves, seabirds and coastal habitats, while harming local livelihoods tied to fishing and marine resources.
Previous conflicts – the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, the 1990-1991 Gulf War and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq – added pressure on the Gulf, with oil spills taking years to rectify.
Environmental fallout can also spread beyond conflict zones because of carbon emissions. At Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, Ukraine said the war with Russia, which is still. raging, had caused about $60 billion in environmental damage. It said about 120 million tonnes in war-related emissions were created in the 12 months following the full-scale invasion in 2022 – higher than the annual totals recorded by Romania, Austria, Norway and Sweden.
The current Middle East conflict could also affect the energy sector as fossil-fuel supplies are disrupted and prices surge. Mr Weir said countries were “sick of these oil shocks” and were therefore keen to shift to renewable energy “for societal resilience”. He cited Spain as an example, with renewables generating nearly 60 per cent of the country's power. “It'll be interesting to see how many other countries accelerate this in the medium term as a result,” he added.
Dr Karami said both sides seem to view attacks that impose severe ecological costs as “cheap, accessible and politically useful”, and urged global environmental institutions, international organisations and even regional actors to hit back at the idea environmental destruction is an instrument of war that is free of consequences.
Despite the conflict, Dr Karami remains optimistic. Many Gulf countries are following the UAE’s lead in diversifying beyond oil into tourism, services and quality of life, he said.
He said: “That transition is important because it creates stronger incentives for governments to adopt stricter environmental standards and to preserve coastlines, marine waters and attractive urban environments.”
