Yemen's Houthi rebels could follow Iran’s lead and create a new chokepoint on international shipping, a maritime intelligence analyst has said.
As part of the two-week ceasefire with the US, Iran has insisted that its armed forces should continue to co-ordinate navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
The world’s most important oil channel has become known as the “Tehran tollbooth”, after Iran began charging as much as $2 million a ship for some carriers to cross the strait.
As part of the process, ships have been contacting Iran through their automatic identification systems to request passage, usually by identifying themselves as Indian or Chinese-linked vessels.
The strait still appeared to be mostly blocked on Wednesday, as ship owners sought understand whether it was safe to cross the waterway after the ceasefire was announced overnight.
Seven ships have been seen leaving the region since Tuesday morning, while three have entered, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Last year, about 135 ships a day passed the strait. More than 800 freighters are believed to be stuck inside the Gulf.
In the past two weeks, Iran’s Houthi allies have operated a similar system in the Bab Al Mandeb strait and the Red Sea, allowing only ships that distance themselves from the US or Israel to pass, Arsenio Longo, founder of analytics company Huax, told The National.
He said the method “started first in Hormuz, then switched to the Houthi region”, and is now “actually more frequent all around the Red Sea”.
“Broadly speaking, the Houthis appear to be applying a Bab Al Mandeb version of the Iranian maritime pressure formula, with local variations,” he added.
“The key point is not whether every detail is centrally directed, but that the operational logic is strikingly similar – selective pressure, behavioural signalling, calibrated ambiguity and leverage over commercial transit.
“That also means Iran can potentially use the Houthis as leverage. Whether through direct co-ordination or strategic alignment, the effect is the same – Tehran gains an additional maritime pressure point west of Hormuz.”
The Houthis are part of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, along with Hezbollah, Hamas and a network of Tehran-backed militias in Iraq.
The Yemeni group began attacking ships in 2023 in response to Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Some vessels were hijacked, while others were struck with missiles.
In response, the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect shipping, before coming to an end in May last year. The EU launched a naval mission, Operation Aspides, which is set to continue until February next year.
The Houthis joined the Iran war on March 28, firing ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in support of their backers in Tehran.
The possibility Iran could use the Houthis to disrupt shipping was first raised by Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and veteran diplomat.
“The unified command of the resistance front views Bab Al Mandeb as it does Hormuz,” he wrote on social media.
“If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realise that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move.”
Mr Longo said the situation in the Bab Al Mandeb strait is “increasingly tense”, demonstrated by the messages being transmitted by ships.
Ships crossing the strait are emphasising that they have no ties to Israel or the US, whereas those in the Strait of Hormuz only state that they are linked to China or India.
They are also indicating that they have armed guards on board, Mr Longo said.
“The communication is much more intense on the Houthi side. The situation is getting more tense,” he added.
According to Mr Longo, the AIS is designed for navigation, but its use to transmit information about ships' national ties means that access to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea can be “screened on political or sovereign identity, not purely on cargo or vessel type”.
He quoted Houthi media as reporting that the signals sent out by ships are a tacit recognition of the group's authority over the waterway and its intelligence capabilities.
“This confirms the signalling is being actively read and interpreted by the Houthis, not broadcast into a void,” Mr Longo said.
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, has been all but closed since US and Israeli strikes at the end of February prompted Iran to tighten its control, causing oil prices to surge.
Throughout the conflict, ship owners have refused to cross the strait out of concern for the safety of their crews.
While ship owners and insurers have welcomed the ceasefire, they also warned that more details will be needed to determine if safe transit is possible.
“Time will tell whether it is a pause or a peace, but in the meantime, it is highly unlikely that trade into the Gulf will simply resume,” said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association. “The region remains at heightened risk with none of the underlying tension resolved.”
