Uncertainty reigns in Israel after President Donald Trump said the US is in "productive" talks with Iran, seemingly before decisive progress has been made on any of the main Israeli-US war aims.
Mr Trump made the shock announcement yesterday, saying he would give Iran a five-day deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz before the US attacked Iranian power stations. The news sent oil prices tumbling and was cautiously taken as good news by much of the world, which fears the potential for vast economic fall-out and instability from a sustained conflict in the region.
Mr Trump said on Truth Social that the US and Iran had held "very good and productive" conversations about a "complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East”. He claimed that 15 points of agreement had been reached between the US and Iran after talks this weekend. Iran denied such talks had taken place.
Israel, where politicians and the public overwhelmingly back the war, is far less enthusiastic. Two main priorities for the country – dealing with Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile arsenal – appear far from complete. Iran’s nuclear facilities have suffered only limited attacks and the regime continues to fire missiles at Israel and the region.
Hours after Mr Trump's announcement, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “President Trump believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements we have reached alongside the US military to realise the goals of the war through an agreement, an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests. We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstances.”
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Israeli think tank INSS, said that while "we shouldn’t underestimate the US and Israeli achievements, especially on the conventional side regarding command and control and decapitation of senior leadership [...] this is not accumulating into a strategic effect as the regime wasn’t toppled, and it managed to overcome Khamenei’s decapitation".
"If the war ends today, despite the achievement, we can’t call it a success. We still have the same regime, which is weaker but more emboldened. The war was operationally planned quite well, but nobody thought about the implications," he added.
The uncertainty comes amid new reports that Mr Trump is serious about ending hostilities. Three senior Israeli officials told Reuters that the President appears to be determined to reach a deal. The report added that all the officials thought it unlikely that Iran would agree to Mr Trump’s demands.
“If this war ends with easing the sanctions [on Iran] and pretending there’s a new Iran from within the IRGC or this leadership, then I’m quite pessimistic,” said Amit Segal, one of Israel’s most influential journalists, in an interview on CNN.
“There is a lot of confusion […] I don’t think they can meet halfway, but who knows. We have President Trump here,” added Mr Segal, who is considered close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli journalist Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz that Mr Trump’s announcements could be a diversion tactic before an escalation in fighting. “At least twice, Trump has used negotiations under the shadow of an ultimatum as a diversionary manoeuvre before launching an attack.”
“If an agreement to end the war is reached soon, it means that the much talked about goal at the war's outset (that has been neglected over time), namely, regime change in Iran, will not be included,” he added.
