Lebanon is entering a critical and potentially existential phase as the war widens, with US officials increasingly doubtful that the Lebanese army can assert full control over the area south of the Litani River or curb Hezbollah’s military activity.
The concerns reflect growing alarm in Washington that the state is losing its ability to contain Hezbollah, which has signalled it intends to fight to the end, while Israel shows little willingness to negotiate.
As a result, Lebanon is caught between mounting international pressure, Hezbollah’s determination to keep fighting and Israel’s refusal to talk.
After more than a year of holding fire, Iran-backed Hezbollah last week launched a volley of missiles and drones against an Israeli military base near the northern city of Haifa. It said the attack was in response to the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Israel retaliated with intense air strikes, prompting Hezbollah to declare it was joining the regional war and respond with missile attacks and direct confrontation with troops occupying parts of southern Lebanon.
“We do have a hard time believing that the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces] has the level of control over the area [south of the Litani] that has been described,” said a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity like others in this article to discuss sensitive issues.
In response to Hezbollah’s decision to join the fighting, Israel has carried out sustained air strikes across Lebanon, including in the capital, Beirut.
The attacks, coupled with mass displacement orders, have affected more than one million people in just over a week. Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported on Wednesday that 634 people have been killed by the Israeli army, including at least 83 children, and 1,586 wounded since the start of the conflict on March 2.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has accused Hezbollah of working to “collapse” the state and called for direct talks with Israel. Mr Aoun proposed a new initiative, backed by the international community, which would establish a truce between Israel and Lebanon while helping the Lebanese army disarm Hezbollah.
Israel, however, has signalled that it is unwilling to enter negotiations.
“The Israelis are refusing to negotiate – that’s the message relayed to the government,” said a senior Lebanese military official. “They want to disarm Hezbollah themselves.”
Under a US and French-brokered ceasefire reached in November 2024, which ended a year-long war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group agreed to end its armed presence south of the Litani River, about 30km from the border with Israel. Israel also agreed to withdraw its forces from the area.
Despite the agreement, Israel has continued near-daily strikes on targets it says are linked to Hezbollah, and its troops remain in at least five positions in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah had not previously responded to these attacks.
Israel, in turn, has accused Hezbollah of trying to recover its military capabilities, including in the south.
While the group was militarily weakened during its 2024 war with Israel and saw much of its top leadership eliminated, it is believed to still possess missiles with ranges of 100km to 250km and warheads ranging from 100kg to 500kg. On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets into northern Israel, testing Israeli air-defence system.
Civil peace at stake
Disarming the group is not just a military matter, but is considered a civil peace issue in Lebanon. Forcing disarmament risks starting internal conflict.
Army chief Gen Rodolphe Haykal is aware of the challenge, a Lebanese source with direct knowledge of the matter said. “The army also doesn't have the capabilities to do so.
“That's why Israel believes the Lebanese government’s request for negotiations now is aimed at stopping the war and doubts Beirut’s ability to implement its decisions, viewing them as empty rhetoric,” added the source.
Many in Lebanon see Hezbollah and its weapons as a threat to civil peace, and some critics have faulted Gen Haykal for not taking a stronger stance against the group. Local media reported that the government faced pressure to remove him from his post.
Mr Aoun, however, made clear on Tuesday his full support for the Lebanese army, saying he would stand “as a bulwark” against any attacks on the military or its leadership. “If the army is shaken, the entire nation will be at risk,” he said.
Last month, Gen Haykal visited Washington with a comprehensive dossier on the military's efforts in disarming Hezbollah in south Lebanon. The army announced in January the completion of the first phase of its plan to bring all non-state weaponry in the south of the country under its control, covering the area between the Litani River and the Israeli border.
“The LAF is tiptoeing through a political minefield. But, they have to be transparent regarding force capabilities to conduct actions and sustain them for an undetermined period of time,” said the US official.
'Return to resistance activity'
Regional observers suggest that the decision to enter the fray may not have been made by Hezbollah’s political leadership, but rather co-ordinated between the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Islamic Resistance, Hezbollah’s armed wing. There is also a rising sense that Hezbollah may now be operating in factions rather than under a unified command. The National could not independently confirm this.
A militant leader close to Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah said that the timing of the group's “return to resistance activity” is linked to “seizing an opportunity to change the equation, and is not limited to helping Iran”. Its “commitment” to the ceasefire over the past 15 months did not achieve its objectives, the leader added.
“The Lebanese cannot return to square one or to the situation that prevailed during the past 15 months. The Lebanese government can benefit from what is happening in the south to prevent the enemy from going too far and to modify the understandings to ensure the enemy’s commitment to them,” said the militant leader.
The Israeli army last week ordered all residents of Lebanon's southern border areas to leave, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee their homes and villages across parts of the country. On Tuesday, Israeli troops made advances in additional towns in south-eastern Lebanon, including with armoured columns.
Hezbollah believes there is a US-Israeli objective to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Awali River, according to political sources involved in the matter.
The group has made it clear to politicians that as long as the war is on, it will not be part of any internal dispute, and that its priority now is to “restore sovereignty and establish a new deterrence equation”, said one of the sources.
It also warned that any attempt to talk about taking practical steps to disarm it during the war would be treated as “betrayal and conspiracy against Lebanon”.
