An Iraqi militant group announced an attack on US troops in Erbil on Sunday, entering the Iran conflict as experts say Iraq's internal politics could keep other factions quiet.
Iran-backed group Saraya Awliya Al Dam said it had struck the US base in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan, with drones. Residents said the explosions were some of the worst they had heard.
"It's so loud and scary," said one resident living in a residential complex close to the airport. The Kurdish capital is home to a US base and consulate and is often a target of Iranian retaliation.
An agreement on US withdrawal from Iraq provides for a presence in Erbil to remain for much of 2026, even after a postponed withdrawal from Baghdad and the Ain Al Asad base in western Iraq.
In further signs of unrest, Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces - an umbrella group of mainly Iran-backed militias - reported an attack on a base near the Syrian border late on Sunday, while a group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims to have launched dozens of drones since Saturday.
Some Iran-backed militias in Iraq may, however, choose to protect their own interests by staying out of attacks on US forces in the region, experts told The National. They said those militias are taking different approaches to the situation.
Iraqi factions outside the PMF have indicated a greater willingness to escalate against US interests, while others have shown restraint, said Inna Rudolf, from the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King's College London.
“Groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Al Nujaba have maintained ideological independence and recently claimed drone operations targeting American bases in Erbil,” she told The National.
Politically linked groups such as Asaib Ahl Al Haq have shown restraint as they consider "potential risks to their parliamentary influence, government posts and patronage networks", she said. They have expressed “rhetorical solidarity with Iran while avoiding actions that could jeopardise political gains", she added.
Groups with a significant political presence at stake, such as ministries and parliamentarians, appear more likely to be restrained, while those with less institutional influence, or strong ideological ties to Tehran, may favour riskier action.
Israeli-American strikes on Iran began on Saturday morning, killing the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and causing a barrage of retaliatory attacks on US troops, allies and interests in the Middle East.
It has also raised fears that the strikes will push Iran’s proxy groups to join the attacks. The drones launched on Sunday appeared to have hit an ammunition depot near Erbil International Airport, which also houses US forces stationed in the city. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Saraya Awliya Al Dam has attacked US forces in the past, claiming responsibility for rocket strikes in response to the killing of Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in US strikes on Baghdad in 2020.
In addition to the existing American personnel in the city, troops have been moved in from bases in Syria in recent weeks.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan and Kuwait have all been the targets of Iranian attacks since Saturday morning. All countries host American bases or forces in the region.
For years, Iran has maintained a significant network of proxy militias across the Middle East, managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and known as the Axis of Resistance. These groups include Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and various Iraqi militias backed by Tehran. Their presence has emerged as a serious threat to US and Israeli interests in the region.
But the military role of the proxies in Iraq is being “de-emphasised” and they are being allowed by Iran to focus on self-preservation, said Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory firm in New York.
“The Iraqi militias have minuscule military capabilities compared to the Houthis, or even to Hezbollah in its resized state. And Iran itself is directly attacking any targets it wants to hit,” he told The National.
Tehran’s militias in Iraq “serve Iran's interests more effectively by surviving this crisis intact to provide ongoing sanctions evasion channels if the regime survives or a sanctuary for Revolutionary Guard leaders to escape to if the regime falls", he added.
Move away from Tehran
Most of the PMF groups have in the past few years grown closer to the Iraqi state and are less likely to attack US interests in the region, said Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House in London. “They've embedded themselves in the Iraqi state. Most of their power, economy and authority comes from the Iraqi state and not as much from Iran,” he told The National.
These groups have also observed what happened to Iran-linked factions in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, which have taken heavy losses during the past few years. “They've thought that staying away for the time being is more conducive to their survival and to their economic and political interests,” he added.
The groups' need for survival has outweighed the need for action and they are choosing to stay out of the escalation, he said.
Impact of Khamenei’s death
The death of Mr Khamenei will have a significant effect on Iran's proxies in Iraq. It will undermine the stability, security and influence of Tehran on the groups, said Ihsan Al Shammari, a political scientist at the University of Baghdad.
This is because of the "strong ideological and religious ties between them and also some members of parliament having close ties with Tehran", he told The National.
The groups have lost “their key religious authority and reference figure", he said. “Losing him creates a significant vacuum and challenges their legitimacy and operational capacity. It will signal a potential reconfiguration of regional power dynamics."
