Unlike during last year’s war between Israel and Iran, not a single missile or interception has flashed across Beirut’s skies so far.
Lebanon’s airspace remains open, in sharp contrast to last year’s shutdown. Life in the capital feels eerily calm – an uneasy quiet in a country that has grown accustomed to the chaos of conflict over the past two and a half years.
Um Mustafa, a mother of three, woke up at dawn on Sunday morning to the sound of dozens of men on motorbikes firing guns into the air in the predominantly Shiite neighbourhood of Dahiyeh. It was a grim show of mourning after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was confirmed killed during US and Israeli air strikes the previous day.
By then, she had already packed a large bag of essentials and clothes for herself and her children. “As usual,” she told The National.
“We don’t know if it’ll flare up in Lebanon. We didn’t expect this war to start and we certainly don’t know what to expect for the coming days.”
With a go-bag on standby, Um Mustafa is prepared to quickly leave her home – already heavily damaged during the 2023 to 2024 war between Israel and Hezbollah – at a moment's notice.
For now, officials are urging calm. Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar said after a meeting of Lebanon’s Higher Defence Council that “all Lebanese place the interest of Lebanon above all else” – an indirect signal that authorities do not expect the country, or Hezbollah, to enter the confrontation.
The Iran-backed group has largely maintained radio silence beyond issuing a statement condemning the US and Israeli strikes and calling for regional unity against the attacks.
Significantly weakened after its last war with Israel, Hezbollah previously signalled restraint in the event of a wider conflict. But it had also warned that any targeting of Mr Khamenei would constitute a red line – a declaration that now hangs heavy over a country wary of being pulled, once again, into a regional war.
Israel, which bombs southern Lebanon on a near-daily basis despite a 2024 ceasefire, has threatened further counter-attacks if Hezbollah does intervene. Meanwhile, it has mobilised ground troops along its borders with Lebanon and Syria, readying for potential escalation.
The first day of the war caused a familiar reflex within the Lebanese public: long queues formed outside petrol stations and supermarkets as residents rushed to stock up on fuel and essentials. The Prime Minister urged calm and cautioned against panic buying.
On Sunday afternoon, the group called for a public gathering in Dahiyeh in support of Iran. Thousands are expected to attend.
Um Mustafa will not be among them.
“I hope Iran does damage to the US and Israel. But personally I’m tired of war, war, war. I guess I’m just waiting to see what’ll happen.”
For now, Beirut remains quiet. The coming days will determine whether this is the calm before another storm or a sign that the country has finally stepped back from the edge.
