Unlike during last year’s war between Israel and Iran, not a single missile or interception has flashed across Beirut’s skies so far.
Lebanon’s airspace remains open, in sharp contrast to last year’s shutdown. Life in the capital feels eerily calm – an uneasy quiet in a country that has grown accustomed to the chaos of conflict over the past two and a half years.
Um Mustafa, a mother of three, woke up at dawn on Sunday morning to the sound of dozens of men on motorbikes firing guns into the air in the predominantly Shiite neighbourhood of Dahiyeh. It was a grim show of mourning after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was confirmed killed during US and Israeli air strikes the previous day.
By then, she had already packed a large bag of essentials and clothes for herself and her children. “As usual,” she told The National.
“We don’t know if it’ll flare up in Lebanon. We didn’t expect this war to start and we certainly don’t know what to expect for the coming days.”
With a go-bag on standby, Um Mustafa is prepared to quickly leave her home – already heavily damaged during the 2023 to 2024 war between Israel and Hezbollah – at a moment's notice.
For now, officials are urging calm. Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar said after a meeting of Lebanon’s Higher Defence Council that “all Lebanese place the interest of Lebanon above all else” – an indirect signal that authorities do not expect the country, or Hezbollah, to enter the confrontation.
The Iran-backed group has largely maintained radio silence beyond issuing a statement condemning the US and Israeli strikes and calling for regional unity against the attacks.
Significantly weakened after its last war with Israel, Hezbollah previously signalled restraint in the event of a wider conflict. But it had also warned that any targeting of Mr Khamenei would constitute a red line – a declaration that now hangs heavy over a country wary of being pulled, once again, into a regional war.
“Hezbollah is in no shape to intervene. The last war has shattered the group," geopolitical analyst Karim El Mufti told The National. "For them, the priority is now survival. Direct intervention alongside Iran would mean signing its own extinction."
Israel, which bombs southern Lebanon on a near-daily basis despite a 2024 ceasefire, has threatened further counter-attacks if Hezbollah does intervene. Meanwhile, it has mobilised ground troops along its borders with Lebanon and Syria, readying for potential escalation.
Mr El Mufti does not believe Iran will force Hezbollah to enter the conflict.
“Hezbollah is not simply an Iranian militia. Despite what its critics claim, it has long maintained a degree of autonomy, making its own strategic decisions, even under Nasrallah, while cultivating independent funding channels beyond Tehran, including in Africa and Latin America," he said. "With Iran’s leadership networks weakened and key interlocutors gone, it is unclear who could realistically compel the group to enter a wider war.”
Still, the first day of the war caused a familiar reflex within the Lebanese public: long queues formed outside petrol stations and supermarkets as residents rushed to stock up on fuel and essentials. The Prime Minister urged calm and cautioned against panic buying.
Thousands attended a public gathering called by Hezbollah in Dahiyeh as a show of support for Iran and a display of mourning for Mr Khamenei. Entire families were in attendance, grown men and women sobbing publicly for the man who many Shiite Muslims considered a spiritual leader.
"He wasn't just some president. He was a religious leader for an entire sect," said Ahmad, a mourner.
"I'm not even one of his followers - I'm a follower of Sistani," he said, referring to Iraq's most prominent Shiite cleric. "But it still feels like the US and Israel declared war against an entire sect."
Some people raised Iranian flags in a show of support - often a point of contention among Lebanese opponents of Hezbollah, who argue that Iran’s influence over the party undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Born from Israel’s 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has grown into a force with seats in parliament and a strong paramilitary presence, shaping Lebanese politics while remaining a power unto itself.
Um Mustafa did not attend the gathering.
“I hope Iran does damage to the US and Israel. But personally I’m tired of war, war, war. I guess I’m just waiting to see what’ll happen," she said.
For now, Beirut remains quiet. Almost since its inception, Lebanon has been caught in a tug-of-war between rival powers - the US and Israel on one side, Iran and Hezbollah on the other.
The coming days will determine whether this is the calm before another storm or a sign that the country has been dragged in a decisive direction.
