Mazen, his wife and four children fled Al Obeid last week with four other families to escape steadily growing violence as Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces square up for a major battle over the city in North Kordofan province.
Mazen, who asked to be identified only by his first name, said he had no confidence in the army's ability to defend Al Obeid, and that he feared a repeat of the atrocities committed by RSF fighters when they seized El Fasher in the neighbouring Darfur region in late October.
“The situation in the city and in North Kordofan in general is terrifying because both sides are here,” he told The National on Monday, a day after he arrived in the capital Khartoum. “The sound of gunfire, artillery and anti-aircraft guns is horrifying, and, to be honest, I don't have much faith in the army.
“We saw members of the local government and their families flee the city, and that made us think there was no point in staying put.”
Mazen's alarm over the fate of Al Obeid may not be unfounded.
After taking El Fasher following more than a year of siege, the RSF last week captured the city of Babanusa in West Kordofan. On Monday, the RSF seized the country's largest oilfield in southern Kordofan.
The RSF's rapid gains have cast doubt on the army's ability to retain territory in western Sudan – the paramilitary's stronghold, where it has forged alliances with powerful tribes and rebel groups. The western region is also home to most fighters of the RSF, whose forerunner was a notorious militia called the Janjaweed.
The fall of Al Obeid could open the road to the capital, which the army retook from the RSF in March.
Not everyone shares Mazen's fears about the fate of Al Obeid, which has a population of at least 500,000. Resident Moatasem Al Samany believes the army, allied militias and former rebels are well prepared to withstand an RSF ground attack.
However, the city is gripped by fear, Mr Al Samany said.
“We will certainly leave the city if they take it. Already, people are leaving every day, taking buses out of the city and heading to safe regions,” he said.
Sudan's civil war began in April 2023 when months of tension between army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and RSF commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo over their place in a democracy boiled over.
Thirty-one months later, Sudan has the world's largest displacement and humanitarian crisis, with more than 12 million people forced to flee their homes and 25 million facing hunger.
There are no reliable figures for the war's death toll, but it is believed to be in the tens of thousands. Moreover, the country has effectively been divided, with the RSF in full control of Darfur – a region roughly the size of France – and parts of Kordofan, where it has allied with a powerful rebel group.
The army holds sway over Khartoum along with the country's eastern, northern and central regions.
Each side has its own government.
The strategic significance of Al Obeid cannot be overstated, according to US-based Sudan expert Sami Saeed. Its fall could signal the end of the army's presence across the entire western region and consequently enshrine the division of the vast Afro-Arab nation.
The central Sudanese city is also the commercial centre for gum Arabic, a substance widely used in the global food and pharmaceutical industries. It is also home to a large cattle and agricultural market, and has long been used by the UN as a logistical centre for humanitarian operations dealing with the fallout from the country's many years of civil strife.
“The Rapid Support Forces want to control those commercial and economic assets, cut off supply lines to the army south of the city, and use the large army base in Al Obeid that has an airbase and is home to the 5th Infantry Division,” said Mr Saeed.
“Taking it will also give the Rapid Support Forces a strong bargaining position in any future negotiations to end the war. It's clear that its strategy is to end the army's presence altogether in both Kordofan and Darfur.”
But the battle for Al Obeid will not be short or easy for either side, unlike El Fasher where the army garrison was depleted and fatigued after nearly 18 months of fighting, or Babanusa, which was almost deserted when the RSF seized it earlier this month.
“We are confident that the army will win the battle for Al Obeid. We are seeing a constant flow of reinforcements, troops deployed across the city in military vehicles, and anti-aircraft guns to fight off drones are everywhere,” said Taher Maamoun, 31, a businessman who spoke to The National from Al Obeid.
“I realise that some families have left the city, but the majority of us are still here. Our only source of fear is the sound of gunfire and artillery. They scare us although they come from afar.”
Al Shafie Ahmed reported from Kampala, Uganda.
