Syria's decision to integrate all armed opposition factions under a unified armed force was "arguably the most crucial step taken by the new government", but it risks becoming an instrument of state control, much like the Syrian army under the Assad regime, warn analysts.
According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the restructuring process for Syria's new security forces has lacked transparency and civilian oversight, with senior positions in the Ministry of Defence filled by loyalists of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), Syria's post-Assad rulers.
This, the report says, risks turning the security apparatus into an "instrument of control and patronage for the new authorities, much like the [Syrian Arab Armed Forces] was during the Assad regime".
Former president Bashar Al Assad was toppled at the end of last year by a lightning offensive led by HTS, which was formerly linked to Al Qaeda. The group's founder, Ahmad Al Shara, took over as interim Syrian leader.
Mr Al Shara hosted a “victory conference” in Damascus on January 29, at which he announced the dissolution of all armed factions, political and civilian revolutionary bodies, and their merging into state institutions.
While the decision was largely welcomed as an opportunity for stability, analysts argue that the "dismantlement of the various non-state armed groups, rather than their integration into state structures, is needed".
"The pathway for such a process would need to incorporate a well-structured and resourced disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration process, at the end of which most former fighters would return to civilian life," the IISS report said. "Only some, after a proper vetting process for past war crimes and other abuses, would be able to individually join the new forces," it concluded.
While the process does run some risks, failure to do so would lead to a "potential return to the model of the Assad period, where the security sector is primarily an instrument of political patronage and repression rather than a nonsectarian defender of the nation", according to the report.
Additionally, Syria's current security apparatus has been met with distrust from the country's minority groups – another obstacle in the country's push for a unified and neutral armed force. This comes after several instances of mass killings of members of the Alawite and Druze communities since HTS assumed power.
On March 7 and 8, about 1,300 Alawite civilians were killed in connection with a military campaign by the government and allied militias to subdue the coastal area. It had been in response to what the authorities described as attacks by Assad regime remnants on security forces in Latakia and other areas on the coast. In April, more than 100 members of the Druze community were killed in clashes after a fake video of a Druze sheikh being derogatory about the Prophet Mohammed surfaced, according to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights.
This, according to the IISS, "shows the challenges of relying on poorly trained militia to maintain law and order in a society divided along sectarian lines".
It also undermines "the trust of ethnic and religious minorities in the country" and damages the government’s standing abroad at a time when Syria is attempting to reintegrate into the global community after years of being sidelined and sanctioned.
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
