Alarmed by Israel's expansionism, Egypt has moved to bolster its standing in a turbulent Middle East, forging close ties with two regional, non-Arab powerhouses – Israel's archenemy Iran, and US ally and Nato member Turkey.
It appears unlikely that Egypt's outreach to Turkey and Iran will yield a three-nation military alliance, given long-standing differences between Ankara and Tehran as well as the inhibitions Cairo would face if it seeks a full alliance with the Iranians.
However, Egypt's endeavours to strengthen bilateral relations with the two countries carry a potential menace for Israel, which since the Gaza war broke out in October 2023 has struck Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen and Qatar and sowed tension with Egypt and Jordan.
In recent weeks Egypt has scheduled joint war games with Turkey in the Mediterranean, and brokered a deal between Iran and UN nuclear inspectors, which could help Tehran avoid a future attack by Israel and the US. Egypt is also said to be interested in producing drones separately with Turkey and Iran.
“I see the entire situation as bilateral rather than as signs of the emergence of an axis made up of Egypt, Turkey and Iran,” said Middle East expert Michael Hanna of the International Crisis Group.
“Egypt and Turkey are achieving a deeper rapprochement that has tangible output,” he said, citing the naval exercises scheduled for this month. “Taking Iran as a partner seems not to be such a good idea for Egypt. Iran, after all, is a theocratic regime that's difficult for Egypt to be comfortable with.”
But other analysts have different views. “Historically, Turkey and Iran have experienced tension over various regional issues, particularly concerning the conflict in Syria,” said Ismail Numan Telci, an international relations professor at Turkey's Sakarya University.
But he said developments since the Gaza war broke out “have introduced a new regional dynamic, prompting all three countries to reassess their positions and policies”.
“In the event of a military escalation [with Israel], Egypt is likely to regard Turkey and Iran as dependable regional allies, given their shared perception of Israel as a common threat,” he said.
However, sources familiar with the inner workings of Cairo's relations with mainly Shiite Iran also acknowledge that mostly Sunni Egypt has been treading carefully as it seeks closer ties with Iran, wary that being too close could alarm traditional Arab allies suspicious of Tehran's clerical regime.
Egypt's caution, according to the sources, is also prompted by Iran's track record of supporting sectarian activities in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon as well as its meddling in the domestic affairs of Arab states.
Still, the sources say Egypt is looking to co-operate separately with Iran and Turkey on the joint production of drones, an area in which both potential allies are believed to have made considerable advances.
Egypt had for years been sharply at odds with Iran and Turkey before relations began to thaw around 2021 and 2022. But the process only gained momentum after the Gaza war broke out in October 2023.
Relations with Iran were ruptured when Egypt gave refuge to the late Shah of Iran in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the monarchy. Those with Turkey became fraught when Islamist Mohammed Morsi, Egypt's president at the time, was removed in 2013 by the military.
However, as Mr Hanna explained, while Egypt's rift with Iran lasted more than four decades, its quarrel with Turkey only lasted one, making relations with Tehran difficult to quickly normalise.
Turkey, on the other hand, is a mostly Sunni nation, like Egypt, and both have been bound by close economic and social ties dating back as far as five centuries.
Iran, according to Mr Hanna and the sources who spoke to The National, has been keener than Egypt on fostering closer ties, a sentiment they say is rooted in Tehran's relative isolation following defeat at the hands of Israel of some of its regional proxies, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, and the fall of the Iranian-backed regime of Bashar Al Assad in Syria.
While Egypt and Turkey exchanged ambassadors in 2023, Egypt and Iran have yet to do the same, a state of play that the sources believe is reflective of the wide range of unresolved issues between the two countries.
But Mohammad Ali Sayedhanaee of Nations Diplomacy, a think tank in Tehran, believes Iran has shown sufficient willingness to turn the page with Arab players it has been at odds with.
“Iran has the intention of reconsidering its previous disputes and enmity and problems it used to have with regional countries,” he said.
A strong indication of Iran's “good intentions” towards the region, he explained, came this month when it signed an Egyptian-brokered deal to resume inspections of its nuclear sites by experts from the UN unclear oversight agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In theory, the deal could potentially deprive Israel and the US of the justification for attacking Iran's nuclear sites as they did in June.
But these are trying times for Egypt, whose vigorous pursuit of alliances is motivated by the vast challenges it faces in a region that has been upended by the Gaza war and Israel's conduct in the region.
Besides the Gaza war, which rages on Egypt's eastern border and threatens to force hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to seek refuge on its territory, it's alarmed by the seemingly intractable political divisions in Libya, its neighbour to the west, which frequently erupt into violence.
It's much more alarmed by the civil war in Sudan, its southern neighbour, another conflict that has sent more than one million refugees fleeing to Egypt since the conflict began in April 2023.
Egypt is also at loggerheads with Ethiopia over the latter's construction of a major Nile dam that Cairo believes could affect its share of the Nile water, on which it depends for almost all its fresh water needs.
Faced with this multitude of challenges, said the sources, Egypt is spreading the net wider and beyond the pursuit of closer ties with Iran and Turkey to prevent Israel from using its military might and seemingly unfettered US support to reshape the Middle East as it pleases.
Last week, the sources said Egypt invited fellow Arab nations to rally behind a plan it first floated in 2015 for a joint, Nato-style Arab force. It is also reaching out to Sunni Muslim nations, including nuclear-armed Pakistan, to forge alliances that pool military resources to serve as a deterrence to Israel, according to the sources.
It's also looking to China to procure cutting-edge weapons, like air defence systems and stealth fighter jets, which the US is denying it.
For now, however, the combined military capabilities of Egypt, Turkey and Iran are a force to be reckoned with. The three have large and well-equipped armies that, especially in the case of Iran and Turkey, are supported by vast and fast developing military industries.
The three also control key waterways; the Suez Canal in Egypt, Iran's Strait of Hormuz and Turkey's straits of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles and boast a combined population of nearly 300 million, compared to Israel's 10 million.
Speaking to The National, former Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said he could see the benefits of Egypt, Turkey and Iran forging a regional alliance.
“I think this is something that is needed,” he said. “I am saying that the big triangle in the region … is Turkey, Iran and Egypt because these three countries have a long diplomatic experience and long state traditions. And the potential is very high – population wise, geography, etc.”
Lizzie Porter reported from Istanbul.
