Lebanon approaches critical juncture in push for Hezbollah disarmament

Cabinet will discuss 'extension of state sovereignty over all territories' on August 5

The aftermath of an Israeli strike on a Hezbollah-linked financial institution in Dahiyeh, southern Beirut, in 2024. Getty Images

Lebanon is reaching a critical point in its efforts to disarm Hezbollah, with the cabinet due to formally discuss the issue on August 5 and President Joseph Aoun expected to address it in a speech on Friday.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called for a cabinet session next Tuesday to conclude discussions over “the extension of state sovereignty over all its territories” and weapons exclusivity − which in essence means disarming Hezbollah and other non-state groups.

“The session was brought forward due to external pressure on Lebanon regarding Hezbollah disarmament,” Lebanese sources familiar with the matter told The National. “Important decisions are expected to be made soon.”

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The US has tied any postwar reconstruction aid and a potential halt to Israeli military operations to the full disarmament of Hezbollah across Lebanon. The country is still reeling from the aftermath of Hezbollah's year-long war with Israel and the economic collapse that began in 2019.

Whether the ministers will vote to issue a formal cabinet decision committing to disarm the Iran-backed group remains unclear. Although the cabinet does not consist of any political parties, it includes members who back Hezbollah or its allies.

“The Council of Ministers will focus on how to implement arms exclusivity,” said a source close to Mr Salam, but added that the road map to achieve that remains undecided.

They said it remained unclear “if there will be a vote or if there will be a decision by agreement. We will wait and see”.

The US continues to exert significant pressure on Lebanon to push forward and disarm Hezbollah. Mr Aoun and his government have repeatedly said this is their objective. But they warn that unless achieved in the right way, it risks fuelling tensions in a country already on edge.

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Disarming Hezbollah became a possible outcome after its war with Israel left it weakened by significant losses.

The group's new reality has made it open to discussions on a national defence strategy but it has rejected talk of disarming while Israel continues to bomb Lebanon daily and occupies five points on Lebanese soil.

Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem spoke on Wednesday night to mark the first anniversary of the assassination of the group's top military commander, Fouad Shukr. A series of assassinations followed, targeting senior leaders of the group including long-serving secretary general Hassan Nasrallah.

Mr Qassem reiterated that Hezbollah's weapons arsenal was a “domestic issue," and insisted that Israel's continued occupation of Lebanese territory was a prelude to further expansion.

He added that the Lebanese state should focus on ending Israeli attacks on Lebanon and commencing with reconstruction projects before there is any talk of disarmament.

As he has repeatedly said previously, Mr Qassem insisted Hezbollah would never hand over their weapons to Israel.

US special envoy Tom Barrack has made regular visits to Lebanon, including last week, to push the disarmament plan.

He has warned that Lebanon risks being left behind in a rapidly changing region if it does not proceed with the reforms and disarm Hezbollah. Key international donors have also made clear that any desperately needed economic assistance hinges on progress on both fronts.

In March, the World Bank said reconstruction and recovery needs in Lebanon were estimated at US$11 billion after Israel's war with Hezbollah. Some US$4.6 billion of the damage costs were to the housing sector alone – with around 100,000 housing units partially or fully damaged, the World Bank said.