Hamas is considering giving Israel and Gaza ceasefire mediators until the end of the week to reach a deal that would end the war or it will withdraw from the current talks in Doha and only return if proposals for a comprehensive deal are on the table, sources told The National on Sunday.
The latest round of Gaza talks mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt began on July 6. Significant progress has since been made on some issues but Israel and Hamas remain at odds over several key questions.
If the ultimatum is handed, Hamas will only return to the negotiating table to discuss the terms and details of a comprehensive agreement that ends the war in Gaza and ensures an Israeli withdrawal from the coastal enclave, the sources said.
“The ultimatum, if given, will be a message to the United States and the families of the hostages held by Hamas to exert pressure on Israel to accept a deal,” said one of the sources.
“The idea comes from commanders of Hamas's military wing who are bearing witness to the humanitarian tragedy and Israel's moves on the ground while frustrated at the slow pace of progress in Doha.”
Such an agreement will also provide for the exit of wounded Palestinians to receive medical treatment abroad and the return to the enclave of those whose treatment has been completed.
It also envisages the unfettered flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and the running of the territory's affairs by a panel of independent Palestinian experts once a ceasefire goes into effect.
The Doha talks are taking place amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with hundreds of thousands now facing hunger and acute shortages of essential life items.
The sticking points include the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza, the distribution of humanitarian aid and the inclusion of some high-profile Palestinians among the hundreds to be freed from Israeli prisons in return for the release of hostages held by Hamas.
The Israeli army is also suspected of killing hundreds of Palestinians while collecting aid from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a US and Israeli-backed group that bypassed the UN's distribution network. Israel alleges the UN system has allowed Hamas-led militants loot aid shipments intended for civilians. Hamas denies the charge.
There was no immediate confirmation from Hamas on the plan reported by the sources, but both the militant group and Israel have accused each other of preventing a deal from being reached by not compromising on their conditions.
The latest Hamas position would not mark the first time a temporary truce and a limited hostages-for-prisoners swap is put aside, with the group instead focusing on negotiating a wider and enduring settlement.
The move is rooted in its fear that the Israeli army will resume military operations when the proposed 60-day truce expires or when all the hostages are freed.
Hamas is believed to be holding 50 hostages, of whom 20 are still alive.
Israel, for its part, has been generally reluctant to publicly discuss what comes after the proposed truce ends, insisting the war will only end when Hamas's governing and military capabilities are completely dismantled and its leaders leave Gaza to live in exile.
The sources said the decision to give Israel and the mediators an ultimatum also reflected what Hamas saw as time-wasting tactics by Israel in the Doha talks while it proceeds with plans to keep its military indefinitely in Gaza, carving out security zones inside the tiny enclave and pushing hundreds of thousands into designated areas for food distribution from which they cannot leave.
In its latest move, the Israeli army published new eviction warnings for areas of central Gaza on Sunday, for the first time.
When implemented, the evacuation will cut access between the city of Deir Al Balah and the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis. Moreover, the area under the order is also home to many international organisations attempting to distribute aid.
The Gaza war began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking another 250 hostages back to Gaza.
Israel's response to the attack has since killed more than 58,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to health officials, displaced almost the entire 2.3 million population, plunged the enclave into a humanitarian crisis and left much of the territory in ruins.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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