Iraq relieved but still on edge after Israel-Iran ceasefire

Twelve days of strikes between the regional enemies jeopardised Baghdad's hard-won stability

People in Baghdad celebrated a perceived Iranian victory after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. Reuters

The guns have fallen silent for now, but in Iraq, no one is truly at ease.

A fragile calm has descended over the region as Iran and Israel agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire, ending a dangerous spiral that pushed the Middle East to the brink of all-out war. In Iraq, the mood is one of cautious relief mixed with a lingering anxiety over what comes next.

While Iraq was spared the direct strikes, it once again found itself in the eye of the storm and felt the tremors acutely. The missiles, drones and fighter jets of both warring sides flew over the country, while heavily armed, Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, threatened to join the fight to strike US or Israeli targets.

“Those were the most difficult days for us,” a senior Iraqi diplomat told The National. “The crisis was beyond our control and influence, and we were on the brink of a wide-scale war if the armed factions intervened.

“We’re breathing a sigh of relief now, but we’re not out of the woods yet.” He warned that “the embers remain beneath the ashes”, pending negotiations between Iran and the US that American President Donald Trump suggested would take place next week.

Alarmed at the war's potential to plunge Iraq and the wider region into chaos, the highest Shiite religious authority in Najaf expressed grave concern over the unfolding crisis. In an unprecedented move, Shiite spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani issued two statements last week, condemning the Israeli strikes and calling on the international community to intervene.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani tried to walk a delicate tightrope between Washington and Tehran and urged calm throughout the crisis, calling on Iran to consider diplomacy instead. The Iraqi government also asked both Iran and US as well as Tehran-allied militias to prevent Baghdad from being caught up in the conflict.

The ceasefire gives us a break, not a solution

Baghdad taxi driver Khalid Jaber

Israel launched a surprise raid on Iran on June 13, unleashing a wave of strikes against dozens of targets, including nuclear factories and military command centres. The strikes killed senior Iranian figures, among them armed forces officers and top nuclear scientists.

That ignited a 12-day air war between the long-time foes. Iran’s health authorities have said that 627 people were killed and 4,870 were injured, while Israel put its toll at 28 killed and 1,386 injured. The war ended with a retaliatory missile salvo from Iran against a US military base in Qatar in response to an American intervention to bomb Tehran's nuclear centres.

Mr Al Sudani welcomed the ceasefire, expressing hope that the agreement “will be strong and cohesive and not fragile”. His adviser on political issues, Hussain Allawi, said Iraq was “committed to supporting peace and stability in the region, and looks forward to a new phase that consolidates security and development”.

Iraqis have recently witnessed unprecedented political and security stability, encouraging the government to launch a series of infrastructure projects and introduce reforms to improve the country's business environment and public services. Several mega-deals have been signed with major international companies and countries, mainly in the field of energy. The nation is also preparing for a national election in November.

Iran reported hundreds of people being killed during 12 days of Israeli strikes. EPA

Iran in retreat

The war will probably force Iran to “retreat and reassess its calculations, significantly altering its behaviour at least during the next four years with Trump in the White House”, said Ihsan Al Shammari, head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre.

Mr Al Shammari believes that Iran’s waning influence will have a ripple effect on its proxies in Iraq and that will “lead to the weakening of its allies, resulting in a vastly different political reality”.

He sees the non-involvement of the militias as part of an Iranian strategy as it “still relies on maintaining these proxies, therefore it attempted to shield Iraq from any repercussions that might open the door to a new equation”.

However, he added, the presence of these groups could be on the table of upcoming negotiations in order to “disarm them and undermine their political influence”.

Across Iraq, the mood is sombre.

Despite the current truce, many Iraqis are still fearful about the unresolved tension between Iran and Israel, between militias and the state, and between competing global interests.

“The ceasefire gives us a break, not a solution,” Baghdad taxi driver Khalid Jaber, 56, told The National.

For him, the recent flare-up served as a stark reminder that Iraq’s stability is perpetually at risk from conflicts it cannot control.

“Iraq may not have been bombed, but it was under siege in every other sense – politically, emotionally and economically,” he added.

“We will wait for the next shock and wondering if we’ll be able to weather the storm again.”